Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391835989010747398

Snyder is a state representative in VA Beach and should have had the plurality here if he was to win. Youngkin wins no matter what.

You're confusing Snyder with Miyares.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391835989010747398

Snyder is a state representative in VA Beach and should have had the plurality here if he was to win. Youngkin wins no matter what.

Snyder has never held elected office.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391835989010747398

Snyder is a state representative in VA Beach and should have had the plurality here if he was to win. Youngkin wins no matter what.

You're confusing Snyder with Miyares.

Yes, my mistake. Thank you for correcting me. Either way, Youngkin wins, its a question of who he faces in the final round.

[Gracile]

I am glad the other Democratic Candidates do not even pose a threat to McAufflie in the June 8th primary. I doubt any of them could even cross 45% of the statewide vote against Youngkin, who will have unlimited funds.

If anything the opposite is closer to reality - it's a question of how the GOP will get above the mid-high 40s to give them a win.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I love how much the opinion on this race has changed in like 4 hours.

Just because the "sane" Conservative defeated the slightly-less "sane" Conservative doesn't make this race any more competitive than it was yesterday.

Likely D  ---->  Likely D

[Vosem]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

[jamestroll]

I am glad the other Democratic Candidates do not even pose a threat to McAufflie in the June 8th primary. I doubt any of them could even cross 45% of the statewide vote against Youngkin, who will have unlimited funds.

If anything the opposite is closer to reality - it's a question of how the GOP will get above the mid-high 40s to give them a win.

There seems to be more resistance to business restrictions and school closures than most Biden states. Though admittedly, schools are open and business restrictions were less here in comparison to most Biden states during the pandemic.

Data on college educated whites and Democratic support without Trump is very awful.

If Democrats  nominate an all Nova ticket, downstate could become an utter night mare for Democrats. The Nova college white Democratic vote is more sustainable than the college white vote in Richmond and Hampton roads.

But McAufflie is certainly the nominee and I voted for a McAufflie/Rasoul/Jones ticket for a reason. McAufflie is nearly 100% certain in the primary and a favorite in the general no matter how much money Youngkin has.

[LtNOWIS]

I like how Snyder and Younkin have managed to tie Loudon, Arlington and Falls Church.

Yeah, I saw that. But now and it looks like Youngkin pulled out a 181-180 lead in Loudoun. Maybe a retabulation or something.

I was thinking there'd be a close result in Fairfax as well, but Youngkin crushed it there. The nomination is his to lose at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, here's my take on potential GOP Competitiveness. Here are the states Trump won 2016 by a margin similar to Biden's 2020 Virginia Result:

SC - 14.2%
VA - 10.1%
IA - 9.4%
TX - 9%
OH - 8.1%

So unless you think 2022 will be worse for D's than 2018 was for R's...

[Vosem]

Note also that off-year elections can be much harder to model for pollsters than regular cycles. Virginia polling was fine, excepting Mark Warner's massive disapproving lead in 2014, for the 2012/2016/2018/2020 cycles, but it's been consistently 4-5 points off of reality the past few gubernatorial cycles: the RCP average in 2017 was Northam+4 (compare result Northam+9), in 2013 was McAuliffe+7 (compare result McAuliffe+3), in 2009 was Donnell+14 (compare result Donnell+18), in 2005 was Kaine+2 (compare result Kaine+6).

(I realize 2005 is ancient history, it's just funny when polling patterns go that far back since the map was so different).

Point is, this is a race that gets polled a lot, and because VA is close to the Beltway this is a race that drives more than its fair share of the narrative, but the polling here is often wrong and the result hasn't always been a good guide to the next midterm. (Polling error in this race actually has been a decent guide, but even that feels stupid to rely on when there are 4 examples of the pattern).

[Vosem]

Anyway, here's my take on potential GOP Competitiveness. Here are the states Trump won 2016 by a margin similar to Biden's 2020 Virginia Result:

SC - 14.2%
VA - 10.1%
IA - 9.4%
TX - 9%
OH - 8.1%

So unless you think 2022 will be worse for D's than 2018 was for R's...

No? I think the 2020 House results are a better guide than Trump vs. Biden, since lots of people had opinions on Trump which were out of alignment with their party and you're averaging out candidates from both parties of different quality. (In all honesty, 2020 state legislative results might be even better since you're drawing from even more races, but it's often difficult to find summed figures). I also think 2020 was a stronger Democratic year than typical, and even if 2022 isn't a Republican wave there'll be some reversion to the mean.

If 2021 (not the same as 2022) is as strong for Republicans as 2018 was for Democrats, I would expect a quite comfortable win for Youngkin, probably high-single digits (greater than 5 points).

I expect a closer win for McAuliffe than D+5 because I think 2021 won't be as strong for Democrats as 2020, even though it may be similar, and that's the most on-point estimate.

[Gass3268]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

[Spectator]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

No, it doesn’t seem Vosem did. You can conservatively estimate the Dem there would have gotten 100,000 votes. That would bump the Democrats’ statewide margin to 300,000. The only big outlier in Comgressional performance relative to the Presidential results was in VA-01 where Wittman won 59 to 41, but Trump only won it by 4%. Everywhere else was about in line with what you would expect, except a small Democrat underperformance in NOVA.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

[slothdem]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

As addressed above, you are putting a lot of stock into Morgan Griffith running unopposed (and also Wittman's thrashing of Rashid). But I also highlighted Ralph's approval ratings. I haven't seen anything from 2021, but the most recent approval poll I could find had Ralph at 56/39. He weathered the blackface scandal remarkably well, and if he was eligible he would win re-election without difficulty. Most people feel that he handled the pandemic well in terms of safety vs openness, and the liberal reforms instituted by the legislature these past two years are very popular. There's a reason why every dem candidate or Gov/LG/AG wanted his endorsement.

This race is not unwinnable for Youngkin, and it may very well be within 5 points. But close margins =/= uncertain outcomes, and Youngkin pretty much needs every possible thing to go right.

[jamestroll]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

As addressed above, you are putting a lot of stock into Morgan Griffith running unopposed (and also Wittman's thrashing of Rashid). But I also highlighted Ralph's approval ratings. I haven't seen anything from 2021, but the most recent approval poll I could find had Ralph at 56/39. He weathered the blackface scandal remarkably well, and if he was eligible he would win re-election without difficulty. Most people feel that he handled the pandemic well in terms of safety vs openness, and the liberal reforms instituted by the legislature these past two years are very popular. There's a reason why every dem candidate or Gov/LG/AG wanted his endorsement.

This race is not unwinnable for Youngkin, and it may very well be within 5 points. But close margins =/= uncertain outcomes, and Youngkin pretty much needs every possible thing to go right.

I agree with you.

Youngkin probably needs schools to be completely closed and Northam would have to have a change of heart and impose covid restrictions indefinitely to defeat Tmac.

Also remember, Youngkin has the ability to flood the air waves that TMac will not be able to and the non-Tmac Democrats would basically be DOA on Election Night. Basically poll closing calls for Youngkin. 

[Left Wing]

I love how much the opinion on this race has changed in like 4 hours.

Just because the "sane" Conservative defeated the slightly-less "sane" Conservative doesn't make this race any more competitive than it was yesterday.

Likely D  ---->  Likely D

No...?

The only people saying Youngkin has a chance are the same people who insisted VA was competitive all  along (a tiny minority)

[Vosem]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

No, but it doesn't change much since this is a seat where Democrats rarely break 1/3 and are poorly organized in. Assigning an appropriate fraction of Griffith's vote to the Democrats, whether by universal swing from 2018 or 2016, gets you to D+7, though if assume many of those were under-voters (Biden/no vote for House, rather than Biden/House R) it goes to D+6. (National House vote was D+3 -- not sure which side left more seats uncontested, though. By contrast, Virginia was D+10 presidentially while the nation was D+5).

(Basically, Virginia is somewhere 2-5 points left of the US, and getting further left over time. But that's still perfectly winnable for the GOP in a good year, and you'd expect them to take it in a wave. The opposite-side counterpart isn't OH/IA, but somewhere like NC. Which I guess Democrats have had a lot of trouble winning recently, but it isn't unwinnable.)

[KaiserDave]

This race is obviously Safe D why is anyone bothering

[Lief 🗽]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

[Storr]

This race is obviously Safe D why is anyone bothering

The same reason people bother with Iowa elections.

[Roll Roons]

This race is obviously Safe D why is anyone bothering

It's an off year and there's not much else to talk about in terms of elections, especially with the House map being up the air.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

[Spectator]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

No, but it doesn't change much since this is a seat where Democrats rarely break 1/3 and are poorly organized in. Assigning an appropriate fraction of Griffith's vote to the Democrats, whether by universal swing from 2018 or 2016, gets you to D+7, though if assume many of those were under-voters (Biden/no vote for House, rather than Biden/House R) it goes to D+6. (National House vote was D+3 -- not sure which side left more seats uncontested, though. By contrast, Virginia was D+10 presidentially while the nation was D+5).

(Basically, Virginia is somewhere 2-5 points left of the US, and getting further left over time. But that's still perfectly winnable for the GOP in a good year, and you'd expect them to take it in a wave. The opposite-side counterpart isn't OH/IA, but somewhere like NC. Which I guess Democrats have had a lot of trouble winning recently, but it isn't unwinnable.)

North Carolina is far from a good comparison to being the Republican version of Virginia. The best analogy would be Ohio where Democrats have a solid floor but can never win. Even that is not the best example since at least Ohio Democrats have won statewide elections occasionally in the past ten years. Virginia Republicans have not.

[It’s so Joever]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

You’ve spent way too much time in the ‘reopen schools’ echo chamber.