Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[DINGO Joe]

One notable difference so far is Russell County which was a Chuck Smith stronghold yesterday in a sea of Miasma counties.  Chase lost badly to Youngkin today

[Skill and Chance]

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

[Roll Roons]

Hope I'm not speaking too soon, but maybe the GOP doesn't always go for the craziest candidate.

I know Youngkin isn't exactly Charlie Baker, but at least he's not a raving lunatic like Chase.

[Duke of York]

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

Hopefully Chase runs as a independent.

[MT Treasurer]

To win the Republicans need to not just flip some of those downstate counties.  They also need to substantially cut down their deficits in Fairfax and Loudoun. 

I don't think they have much shot at cutting down the margins in Alexandria or Arlington and the turnout in both will be high.  Probably won't cut much in Prince William either.  I think they would need to get the Fairfax margin under 30 and the Loudoun margin under 20.  I don't think either will happen with the second rate candidates they have.

I dont see any of the trends in Virginia reversing. At most the Republicans lose by 6-8 but I dont see it being any closer than that.

You'd be correct.  the only hope Republicans have is that Democrats push too far on "socialism" and raise taxes, etc.  But the Virginia Democratic Party seems to be messaging perfectly.  They haven't raised taxes and they are set to nominate Terry, a moderate who is liberal on social issues but fiscally responsible - a perfect fit for NOVA.  As long as democrats keep a tight grip on growing NOVA counties they should be fine, the math doesn't work for Republicans. 

Democrats nationally, and especially in states like Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Florida should look at how the Virginia democrats have done things.  They have completely rammed through their agenda on social issues, the court, and race relations while being just moderate enough to avoid attacks.  They've completely neutered the Virginia GOP to the point where they are irrelevant to state politics at the local level.

Oh god no. Please don't spread social liberalism and fiscal moderation everywhere...

I also like how he thinks that what works in Virginia must also work in Texas and Florida (or even Arizona, for that matter).

[VAR]

Hope I'm not speaking too soon, but maybe the GOP doesn't always go for the craziest candidate.

I know Youngkin isn't exactly Charlie Baker, but he's not a raving lunatic like Chase.

Chase may still win, but if she loses, it will be because a. she's a woman b. ran an absolutely terrible campaign filled with gaffes.

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

Hopefully Chase runs as a independent.

Why do you care lmfao? TMac is Safe anyway.

[Skill and Chance]

Hope I'm not speaking too soon, but maybe the GOP doesn't always go for the craziest candidate.

I know Youngkin isn't exactly Charlie Baker, but he's not a raving lunatic like Chase.

Chase may still win, but if she loses, it will be because a. she's a woman b. ran an absolutely terrible campaign filled with gaffes.

If Youngkin is winning 1st round preferences, he's got this.  He's almost surely going to gain votes in the reallocations, particularly with Snyder in 3rd. 

Hopefully Chase runs as a independent.

Why do you care lmfao? TMac is Safe anyway.

Let's see how the education stuff plays out before we assume he's safe against Youngkin.  I expect McAuliffe to win, but it could easily be another 2013 margin. 

[DINGO Joe]

I hope Chase finishes 3rd because I want to see what her reallocation looks like (I'm hoping more than half didn't make a second choice)

[Skill and Chance]

Snyder moved into 2nd now.  A Snyder vs. Youngkin final round could be more interesting than Youngkin vs. Chase.

[Oryxslayer]

Results at 35% of weighted votes counted:

Glen Youngkin: 30.89%
Pete Snyder: 25.48%
Amanda Chase: 24.81%
Kirk Cox: 12.95%
Sergio de la Peña: 5.33%
Octavia Johnson: 0.30%
Peter Doran: 0.24%

Cox has fallen off in favor of Youngkin as more smaller countires weighted votes report. We won't know the full picture until everything from round 1 is done, given that Chase appears to be doing better in Hampton Roads and Richmond, Youngkin in Richmond and NOVA, and Snyder in NOVA and Hampton Roads. Cox will gain votes when Chesterfield reports, but so will Chase given their overlapping legislative bases. 

[compucomp]

Do we buy this?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391777855474999298?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391781567119364098?s=20

[Torrain]

While we wait for the gubernatorial convention results, I'm struck by something rather mundane.

Among the major players in VA politics, all are within 7 years of each other's age - McAuliffe (64), Kaine (63), Warner (66), Northam (61), Herring (59). Obviously that's not unusual, that's pretty much the average age of Congress. But the inner circle of power in VA is all only  about a decade away from retirement.

It'll be interesting to see how VA politics shift once the Old Guard, who emerged onto the political scene in the Bush year, leave. Will it upend the 'socially-liberal, fiscally moderate' consensus in the state, or will the next generation look just like the last.

If Jay Jones or Sam Rasoul win the AG or LG nomination, respectively, it feels like they're basically promised a Senate seat or term as Governor in the long term, barring a Fairfax-esqe scandal. As men in their 30s, they've got a real shot of hanging around, and shaping state politics for years to come.

[Torrain]

State of the race with 40% in:

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391792185381695489

[DINGO Joe]

Results at 35% of weighted votes counted:

Glen Youngkin: 30.89%
Pete Snyder: 25.48%
Amanda Chase: 24.81%
Kirk Cox: 12.95%
Sergio de la Peña: 5.33%
Octavia Johnson: 0.30%
Peter Doran: 0.24%

Cox has fallen off in favor of Youngkin as more smaller countires weighted votes report. We won't know the full picture until everything from round 1 is done, given that Chase appears to be doing better in Hampton Roads and Richmond, Youngkin in Richmond and NOVA, and Snyder in NOVA and Hampton Roads. Cox will gain votes when Chesterfield reports, but so will Chase given their overlapping legislative bases. 

Snyder has been winning outer NOVA and running ahead of Chase and that was a region Smith ran well in, so I think Chase is locked out.

[Oryxslayer]

Results at 35% of weighted votes counted:

Glen Youngkin: 30.89%
Pete Snyder: 25.48%
Amanda Chase: 24.81%
Kirk Cox: 12.95%
Sergio de la Peña: 5.33%
Octavia Johnson: 0.30%
Peter Doran: 0.24%

Cox has fallen off in favor of Youngkin as more smaller countires weighted votes report. We won't know the full picture until everything from round 1 is done, given that Chase appears to be doing better in Hampton Roads and Richmond, Youngkin in Richmond and NOVA, and Snyder in NOVA and Hampton Roads. Cox will gain votes when Chesterfield reports, but so will Chase given their overlapping legislative bases. 

Snyder has been winning outer NOVA and running ahead of Chase and that was a region Smith ran well in, so I think Chase is locked out.

On the face of things a Youngkin v Chase final ballot is still probable since more of Cox's support in the Richmond area will follow to other Richmond beneficial candidates, unless Snyder really builds a lead on her out of NOVA and Virginia Beach. Either final ballot, Youngkin vs Chase or Youngkin vs Snyder probably benefits Youngkin for different reasons, its hard to imagine a large amount of Snyder -> Chase transfers or vice versa.

[Roll Roons]

Do we buy this?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391777855474999298?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391781567119364098?s=20

I'm kind of torn on this. On one hand, NoVA has become a hell of a mountain to overcome, and the shifts in Richmond and Hampton Roads haven't helped. McAuliffe is also very much a known quantity.

But Youngkin seems likely to be the nominee, and I feel like he could have some upset potential. Plus if Republicans were able to win in Maryland, Virginia should be hypothetically within reach.

So I guess I'd say Democrats are clearly favored because of the state's partisanship, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of a GOP victory.

[tjstarling]

Do we buy this?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391777855474999298?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391781567119364098?s=20

I'm kind of torn on this. On one hand, NoVA has become a hell of a mountain to overcome, and the shifts in Richmond and Hampton Roads haven't helped. McAuliffe is also very much a known quantity.

But Youngkin seems likely to be the nominee, and I feel like he could have some upset potential. Plus if Republicans were able to win in Maryland, Virginia should be hypothetically within reach.

If any of the other Dems had been the nominee (although I guess the dem nominee is still tbd), I’d agree that the potential for an upset was there. McAuliffe could still conceivably put his foot in his mouth I guess.

I’m more interested in turnout dynamics. I suspect we might see quite the drop off in dem turnout which might make this race closer than the underlying dynamics in the state would suggest. Curious what tea leaves we can read from the dem primary turnout in June.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391797587267792907?s=20

It's definitely Youngkin's to lose, given he will benefit from transfers from whichever of the two potential third place candidates gets eliminated.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Wasserman is concern trolling or huffing paint. The odds are closer to 10% than they are to 25%.

Do we buy this?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391777855474999298?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391781567119364098?s=20

I'm kind of torn on this. On one hand, NoVA has become a hell of a mountain to overcome, and the shifts in Richmond and Hampton Roads haven't helped. McAuliffe is also very much a known quantity.

But Youngkin seems likely to be the nominee, and I feel like he could have some upset potential. Plus if Republicans were able to win in Maryland, Virginia should be hypothetically within reach.

So I guess I'd say Democrats are clearly favored because of the state's partisanship, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of a GOP victory.

em added

It's not 2014 anymore and top of the ticket notwithstanding, the Trumpified VAGOP of 2021 is not the pre-Trump MDGOP of 2014.

Even still MDGOP of 2014 needed a sleepwalking Lt. Gov inheriting the throne of a relatively unpopular governor to win that race. If TMac campaigns anything like Brown did I'll start sweating a little but the state of the race is much harder for Republicans now than it was seven years ago.

I’m more interested in turnout dynamics. I suspect we might see quite the drop off in dem turnout which might make this race closer than the underlying dynamics in the state would suggest. Curious what tea leaves we can read from the dem primary turnout in June.

The VA Dem base includes enough cosmopolitan and college educated voters, still more or less addicted to Trump/conservative outrage porn, that I think turnout won't fall as much as it did in other states under Obama.

[DINGO Joe]

What did they do, take lunch?

[Young Conservative]

Youngkin is a very electable candidate, as is Miyares. Youngkin has a robust voter registration base and threads the conservative line well enough to unite the base and prevent a Chase third-party run without alienating moderates. Miyares is a similar breed, plus he's Cuban which ads needed diversity to a GOP statewide slate.

Obviously an uphill climb, but I would not sleep on this race if Youngkin ends up being the nominee,

Probably best ticket for the GOP is Youngkin/Davis/Miyares. Youngkin/Sears/Miyares also would not be bad, and it would be quite the diverse ticket regionally and ethnically.

[It’s so Joever]

I am shocked Chase didn’t win.

[Young Conservative]

I am shocked Chase didn’t win.

Ground game matters! Also, conventions sometimes favor the more radical candidate, but I am not sure that ended up being the case here. Chase turned off a lot of party insiders by threatening third party runs and endorsing independents.

[Tender Branson]

Youngkin could turn out to be a problem for McAuliffe.

VA voters might have a Dem. fatigue by November and elect him (barely), but Gov. Murphy should easily hang on in NJ.

A 1R, 1D win would be the same result for Biden as Reagan in 1981.

In the 40 years in between, the new President always lost both races ...

[VAR]

I am shocked Chase didn’t win.

Anyway... this is exactly how Marjorie Taylor Greene would go down in flames if she decides to run statewide. You can be as "Trumpy" as you wish, but if you have an XX chromosome and/or severely lack charisma, you're out.