Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/1367490301657554945?s=20

Big slap in the face to Herring.

Top 10 Anime Betrayals

[KaiserDave]

So, Herring's bid is pretty much done, right? I remember that he had extremely weak fundraising numbers posted some pages back. The blackface stuff seems to have finished him off, while Northam has recovered because his performance in office is solid. If he was able to run again, he'd probably win reelection (while McAuliffe doesn't challenge him).

Northam is actually a good Governor, so yeah the horrendous affair with the yearbook didn't finish him off.

[Lognog]

Wait does Jones actually have a shot???

[Skill and Chance]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed). 

[Not Me, Us]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed). 

Perhaps, but I think blaming Clinton's loss on Tim Kaine being on the ticket is an inaccurate assessment of events.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed).

Because as 2020 "arguably showed", having a San Franciscan on the presidential ticket is less of a net negative in the current alignment than a Virginian on the ticket.

[jamestroll]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed).

Because as 2020 "arguably showed", having a San Franciscan on the presidential ticket is less of a net negative in the current alignment than a Virginian on the ticket.

He is a good poster but at times I have seen very strange takes from him.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed).

Because as 2020 "arguably showed", having a San Franciscan on the presidential ticket is less of a net negative in the current alignment than a Virginian on the ticket.

He is a good poster but at times I have seen very strange takes from him.

VPs rarely have much positive effect on the election as a whole. They’re job is basically to just support the candidate and don’t do anything stupid.

[Nyvin]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

[Not Me, Us]

Why exactly does the VAGOP do conventions instead of primaries? They're the only state party that does afaik.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why exactly does the VAGOP do conventions instead of primaries? They're the only state party that does afaik.

They can do either, but usually they seem to do it to keep their party the same ideologically. Case and point when Rep. Riggleman had the audacity to officiate a wedding between two close friends and employees who were gay the party held a convention instead of a primary and booted him out

[Torrain]

Wait does Jones actually have a shot???

Finally, a chance to talk about this race!

Back when Herring was still running for Governor, Jones racked up some major endorsements, including half of the Dem caucus in both houses of the VA legislature, as well as Cory Booker (whose campaign he had worked for in 2020).

In comparison, Herring has only a handful of backers.

Herring rejoined the AG race in December, after Jones had become the de-facto AG nominee. Herring seems to think he’ll be able to walk to a third term. But between Jones’ major support (I never expected Northam to break for him in the primary), and Herring’s scandal, I’d say it’s definitely competitive.

[Lognog]

Wait does Jones actually have a shot???

Finally, a chance to talk about this race!

Back when Herring was still running for Governor, Jones racked up some major endorsements, including half of the Dem caucus in both houses of the VA legislature, as well as Cory Booker (whose campaign he had worked for in 2020).

In comparison, Herring has only a handful of backers.

Herring rejoined the AG race in December, after Jones had become the de-facto AG nominee. Herring seems to think he’ll be able to walk to a third term. But between Jones’ major support (I never expected Northam to break for him in the primary), and Herring’s scandal, I’d say it’s definitely competitive.

I just think that the biggest hurdle will be the name ID for Jones

[Skill and Chance]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

So what happens now?  A normal primary?  A fallback convention site?

[jamestroll]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

So what happens now?  A normal primary?  A fallback convention site?

The VA Gop will have  a meeting on Friday to determine their nomination plans. It could be anything from a statewide primary (maybe too late) to multiple convention sites to party bosses just choosing the nominees.

[Non Swing Voter]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

They must be so disheartened to not have one last opportunity for a superspreader event. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah, to the extent Clinton lost because of Kaine it was because he's boring and brought nothing to the table, not because he's from Virginia. 

Although I would argue that if she picked him to shore up Virginia rather than focusing on the upper midwest it's exhibit 1,000,001 of what a poor and miscalculated campaign Dems ran in 2016.

[Frodo]

This is what one might call 'having too much of a good thing', which works to Terry McAuliffe's advantage, and his ambition to become the next Mills Godwin:

Split opposition boosts McAuliffe's comeback bid in Virginia
With multiple women and people of color in the Democratic primary, groups that typically support those candidates are mostly sitting out the race so far.

[Oryxslayer]

Virginia GOP agrees on how to select their nominees. There will be a 'remote convention' where voters cast RCV ballots at 37 spots across the state.

[Lognog]

Virginia GOP agrees on how to select their nominees. There will be a 'remote convention' where voters cast RCV ballots at 37 spots across the state.

why go through all this work not to have a pimary

[VAR]

Irish-American Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) did a straw poll of 700 Northern Virginia Democratic Party members on St. Patrick’s Day, asking their choice for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Connolly claimed their straw poll “has been often an indicator of ultimate results in both the Democratic primary and the general election.” Here’s the results:

Governor
Terry McAuliffe 40%
Jennifer McClellan 30%
Jennifer Carroll Foy 20%
Lee Carter 6%
Justin Fairfax 4%

Lieutenant Governor
Sam Rasoul 33%
Elizabeth Guzman 18%
Sean Perryman 15%
Hala Ayala 14%
Andria McClellan 14%
Mark Levine 8%
Xavier Warren 2%
Paul Goldman 1%

Attorney General
Mark Herring 75%
Jay Jones 25%

https://vadogwood.com/2021/03/18/connollys-straw-poll-highlights-shifts-in-virginia-governors-race/


In other news, Amanda Chase attacked Jennifer McClellan for being the vice chairman of the Legislative Caucus. Says she is “all for diversity but we cannot continue...”

https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-chase-attacks-mcclellan-leadership-black-caucus-20210316-anp7vpnlzfhslbretzdxkyl6hi-story.html


Glenn Youngkin is coming under fire for sending out canvassers who misleadingly identify themselves as working on behalf of the VA GOP, but in reality work for the Youngkin campaign. In a video, a canvasser asks a voter to provide personal information by filling out a form, but the actual state party hasn’t even deployed canvassers yet. A local GOP official has called for an investigation.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/18/virginia-republican-governor-race-477052

[Frodo]

Here is a fairly comprehensive recap of all the accomplishments by the first Democratic trifecta in Virginia we have had in a generation:

Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here’s what they’ve done.

With all three statewide offices up for election, along with the House of Delegates, it is worth reading if you are an eligible voter in Virginia and contemplating who to vote for.  And even if you know how you are going to vote in November, you should still read it if you are making up your mind in the primaries. 

[butWhyNot?]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

As long as neither of the fringe candidates at the bottom of the poll get the nomination, it seems very hard to see how the Republicans can take this back. McAuliffe can sleepwalk to the win and I don't think McClellan or Foy have any obvious weaknesses.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).