Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

Yeah, that's unrealistic IMO.  Between Trump being out of office and Republicans having a much stronger candidate than the alt-right curious former Enron lobbyist they ran last time, there's every reason to expect a closer election this time. 

IMO it will be similar to the 2013 margin, the legislature will flip and so could LG.  They are sleepwalking into this and really could blow it.   

[Skill and Chance]

^Not to mention, Republicans are looking to defend Kirk Cox's HD 66 (he's retiring), which voted for Biden by approximately 10 points. Granted, that district is quite less blue downballot but still gonna be a tough one to hold.

However, there's redistricting, which may or may not change the HoD landscape depending on whether or not the new maps are in place by the time of the election.

I think the presumption is it will happen on the current maps due to the delay, with possibly a special on the new lines in 2022?

And yes, off-year downballot is generally R+5 vs. the last presidential election, so the Cox seat probably still flips, but a couple of the Dems in Biden+5ish districts could still lose. 

[Skill and Chance]

It will be halarious if Youngkin does better in Nova as compared to Trump and people will wrongfully say for years that Youngkin won Nova even when he didn't. We still have people absolutely convinced Mitt Romney won Nova when it is clearly not true.

Well, I think that's pretty much a given unless he starts campaigning with Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

My preliminary prediction:



Terry McAuliffe (D) - 52%
Glenn Youngkin (R) - 46%

Reasonable, though I would put the PV a little closer because McAuliffe has more to worry about than Biden in outer NOVA.

[Skill and Chance]

My preliminary prediction:

I think you can make Virginia Beach red on this map, and maybe Chesapeake too. My lowkey hot take is that James City is going to vote blue.

FWIW if it's McAuliffe +6 on a uniform swing away from Biden, James City and Virginia Beach would be D+0.  Stafford would be R+0.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump Endorses Youngskin, I move the race to Likely D from Lean D.

IDK who thought this would be a net positive for R chances in VA?!

[Skill and Chance]

Eh, it’s not like a different Republican would better handle the abortion issue. But that’s still insignificant in the grand scheme of things. The national GOP is viewed very negatively in Virginia and that sentiment is very good at delivering Democratic victories in this state. Nothing else truly matters.

The abortion stuff is not going to be decisive, and a hardline stance is usually a net gain for a Republican even in a Lean Dem state.  What's going to hurt is the Trump endorsement.  Trump has the potential to singlehandedly elect McAuliffe.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, was it really off to a great start in the first place?

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1425102154705031178

I do want to see more polling, but it's weird how Youngkin has gotten all the hype while the LG/AG candidates are clearly running stronger campaigns.  Also odd how Youngkin was originally seen as the moderate consensus choice while the LG/AG candidates were originally seen as extreme.

[Skill and Chance]

While I still expect him to win narrowly, it's interesting that McAuliffe hasn't been able to put this away.

[Skill and Chance]

Are some exaggerating the idea Dems need +6% to win the House of Delegates? Biden won 52 districts by 10% or more. Yes this map was a GOP gerrymander but the coalition it was drawn for is completely broken.

I agree.  It’s pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 (one of the Biden +10 districts has a longtime R incumbent with significant moderate cred), but very hard to see them losing the majority unless they are also losing all the statewide races.

[Skill and Chance]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

[Skill and Chance]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

That's what confident parties with a strong candidate at the top of the ticket do.

Is this a serious risk for McAuliffe?  How does this compare to the Nick Freitas 2019 case where he ended up having to run as a write-in?

Freitas did not submit his paperwork at all. TMac forgot a line on the form. This isn't that uncommon of an occurrence, there were 3 cases I recall from recent legislative elections where candidates improperly filled out a form. Freitas was the only recent candidate who lost his case because his position was comparatively unique, extreme, and there was nothing there to argue for wiggle room.

OK, that's a pretty dramatic difference then.  Apparently the state board also voted to allow a whole bunch of people to file late after the deadline last year, so I'm assuming this isn't going anywhere. 

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe wins and then there's a bunch of news coverage about it being a non-consecutive 2nd term, I wonder if it makes Trump more likely to run in 2024?

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe will win but by 2-5 points.....

McAuliffe will be seen as a potential 2024/2028 contender because he is an attack dog and is partisan and he will use that in the debates....

That is what he is known for....

Dems should not take VA, NJ for granted, just like how Republicans shouldn't take FL or TX for granted...

I agree with you on the VA-GOV outcome and margin, but this would be dumb.  McAuliffe wouldn't play well nationally, for the same reason Hillary didn't. 

[Skill and Chance]

Who's winning the debate?

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffle posts a leaked tape of Youngkin asking students not to get the vaccine.
I’m sure this is lacking some context, but it sounds pretty freaking bad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1438641459796877317

Especially ironic following his comments asking for a pro-vaccine PSA with McAuliffe.

Yeah, that sounds really bad.

[Skill and Chance]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Is that a lot?

IDK.  There were 125K total early votes in the June Dem primary and over 2.8M early votes in the 2020 presidential election.  Until 2020, VA required an excuse to vote before election day, so there isn't anything else to compare to. 

[Skill and Chance]

9/16:
In-Person: 5
Mail: 251

9/17:
In-Person: 13,506
Mail: 403

9/18:
In-Person: 851
Mail: 11

Is there not in-person voting on weekends?

Generally no.  Counties are only required to have it the last 2 Saturdays before the election.  Fairfax, the biggest county, had it open this Saturday, but that is not common.

[Skill and Chance]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

VA had an excuse-only system until 2020.  The excuses included stuff like primary caregiver for a relative and working in a different city/county than you live in (probably a majority of the D.C. area), so eligibility was pretty broad. 

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe wins, and he probably drags Ayala and Herring to victory

McAuliffe and Herring should bow out in 2025 and move on with their lives

Well, McAuliffe kind of has to.  Herring probably wants to be governor, but I don't think there's any way he gets through a Dem primary against Alaya, and even if Herring wins and Alaya loses, there are going to be 5 or 10 younger people chasing it by then.

BTW I think Herring and especially Alaya are at serious risk of losing this year, even if McAuliffe wins narrowly.

[Skill and Chance]

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

[Skill and Chance]

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

Which is weird cause I think Youngkin saying he would endorse Trump in '24 or Youngkin opposing Afghan refugees are bigger missteps and more likely to appear in October Democratic ads.

Forgot to mention that one.  When you combine that with the vaccine awkwardness, perhaps McAuliffe has more material to work with.  The schools comment could hurt meaningfully though.  On the other hand, IDK if any of it matters?

[Skill and Chance]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

This is the correct line to take.

Yeah, how is this a gaffe? Pretty sure even most liberal minded folks hate it when karens try and tell the school and teachers what to do.

I don't know that it's a gaffe, but it's the kind of statement that could be rocket fuel for the GOP base.  Even if it doesn't hurt on net in VA, it would be very dangerous in a state closer to the national average.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1445062470503129100

That sounds hard, especially the NOVA part. 

[Skill and Chance]

If Trumpkin wins the HOD absolutely flips but I doubt it would end up 60 40 GOP. More like 54 to 46 or 55 to 45.

The current HoD is a pretty fair map. The GOP gerrymander in 2011 is for a coalition that no longer exists.

There are about 10 seats that are all around Biden +10 (the statewide margin) with some downballot GOP overperformance.  If Dems win all of them and nothing else, they are at 52 (but one of the 52 is currently a GOP-held open seat).  In a tied/recount margin VA-GOV situation, it's probably a coin flip between a 51D/49R hold and something like a 54R/46D flip depending entirely on the degree down-ballot ticket splitting in Trump-Biden areas.  If Youngkin wins by enough for an election night call, it's likely to be 58R/42D style wipeout.  Conversely, the guaranteed Dem hold point is probably McAuliffe +3.