Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

I am supporting Jay Jones in the primary over Mark Herring for Attorney General.

For Lt. Gov I have no idea and frankly I have not even looked at the candidates. I would be willing to take more risk in that race though.

[jamestroll]

That's actually a really good video.

Still a laughably quixotic move.

It is a very good video. Hence why he needs to stay in the House of Delegates and represent Manassas in the House of Delegates and not run for Governor.

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1345053262848946177


Carter officialy announced.

His seat will be flipping anyway.

Probably not. It technically is a reach seat for the GOP but if someone like Carter could hold it it is an uphill climb for the GOP.

[jamestroll]

URGENT! Please support Terry Mcauliffe.

https://terrymcauliffe.com/

The HD-02 special election results are concerning with the caveat that few people paid attention or even know that election was occurring. Even I was barely aware of it.. and I follow VA politics closely.

Donate to him now!!

We may not be able to redraw the delegate lines yet and he is the only candidate that can keep the house of delegates.

[jamestroll]

Candi King (D) beat Heather Mitchell (R) in a special election for HD-02 on Jan 5th, caused by Foy resigning to focus on her gubernatorial run.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-voters-choosing-successors-to-former-delegates-in-special-election/2021/01/05/e604a864-4ee0-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

King, a program assistant for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and a former aide to state Sens. L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) and Lionell Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake), won with 51.49 percent of the vote to Mitchell’s 48.4 percent, according to unofficial results.

It was a closer outcome than Carroll Foy’s victories by large margins in 2017 and 2019, but one that nevertheless solidified Democratic control in a district that has been at the center of a blue wave sweeping through Virginia, giving Democrats control of the General Assembly in 2019.

Republicans nearly flipped a district that went for Clinton by 20 points and Biden by 30. Foy won by 21 points in 2019.

The first of what will be many disappointing elections by Democrats until 2024 at least, if history is any guide.

To be fair it was a special election that very few people knew about. But the safe d Virginia stuff needs to stop.

[jamestroll]

Pete Snyder set to join the race today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/businessman-pete-snyder-joins-race-for-virginia-governor/2021/01/25/91f4dabc-5036-11eb-b96e-0e54447b23a1_story.html

Irrespective of the special election results in HD-02... I do not fear this candidate and believe Mcaffullie, Jennifer McClellan governor or Jennifer Carol Foy could defeat him/

[jamestroll]

The GOP nomination will be decided nearly 6 weeks prior to the June 8th Democratic primary.

It is not necessarily advantageous to the GOP. High profile contested primaries are often good for general election prospects as it brings much attention to the candidates and the winner of the primary.

I also expect that if a stronger candidate emerges from the GOP convention that Democrats will likely choose Terry McAuliffe but if a weaker candidate such as Chase emerges it is possible that Jennifer Carol Foy may be a get a second look for her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE.  

An underrated possibility of the 2021 elections in VA is this: the lower ballot Lt. Gov and Attorney General races become generic R v D and Democrats win but the GOP narrowly winning the governorship.

But I would not bet money on the GOP winning VA-GOV though.

Their screaming about REOPENING SCHOOLS now is a good campaign for January 2021 but by this fall it is highly unlikely that schools will be remote still. And its highly unlikely there will be any substantial restrictions in Virginia at all for the economy expect perhaps a 250 person gathering limit. The GOP seems to be running a campaign right now that could work for now but not for November.

[jamestroll]

"I'm not a politician," he says in the video. "I've spent the last 30 years building business and creating jobs. . . . It's going to take an outsider, a new kind of leader, to bring a new day to Virginia."

uhh has this really been a winning campaign in Virginia recently?

yes the GOP could win the Governorship but I would not bet on it.

and the fact is that Democrats within VA are pretty nervous and ready to fight. The opposite of Democrats in most states who were over confident and saw disappointing results in the 2020 elections.

50% of Virginians are reliable Democrats. 44% are reliable Republicans. the remainder are the battleground at this point.

And unlike Maryland, a Republican Governor would yield a lot of power and influence over policy. So I see MT Treasurers point.

[jamestroll]

The GOP nomination will be decided nearly 6 weeks prior to the June 8th Democratic primary.

It is not necessarily advantageous to the GOP. High profile contested primaries are often good for general election prospects as it brings much attention to the candidates and the winner of the primary.

I also expect that if a stronger candidate emerges from the GOP convention that Democrats will likely choose Terry McAuliffe but if a weaker candidate such as Chase emerges it is possible that Jennifer Carol Foy may be a get a second look for her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE.  

An underrated possibility of the 2021 elections in VA is this: the lower ballot Lt. Gov and Attorney General races become generic R v D and Democrats win but the GOP narrowly winning the governorship.

But I would not bet money on the GOP winning VA-GOV though.

Their screaming about REOPENING SCHOOLS now is a good campaign for January 2021 but by this fall it is highly unlikely that schools will be remote still. And its highly unlikely there will be any substantial restrictions in Virginia at all for the economy expect perhaps a 250 person gathering limit. The GOP seems to be running a campaign right now that could work for now but not for November.

I forgot about the convention system.  That could hurt this guy's odds significantly vs. the party insider candidates.  

Yes. We will know the GOP nominee on May 1st. The GOP now has two "successful" businessman running for the GOP Nomination.

I appreciate Synder's 30 Day Fund to help small businesses during the pandemic and his reopening schools and business sentiment but I would never even consider voting for him.  This pandemic is temporary and will will be looking at the back door of it by this fall.

This will allow Dems to strategize their primary on June 8th. A weaker Republican could well result in Jennifer Carrol Foy being the first African American female Governor in the United States.

[jamestroll]

In other fall from grace news, we have Lee Carter.

After spending his political capital backing the biggest meme candidate of 2020, he's apparently burning his bridges with the local DSA (including his campaign manager from 2017). Apparently he got pissy over what he thought wasn't enough work for his priorities, and people criticizing his wife's DSA clone group/grift for doing nothing.

Now he's trying the Kennedy strat on them. He's spent the last few hours being terminally Online and  whining about DSA/Foy Bros or something like that. Really deranged stuff.

I am terrified he will be the Democratic nominee for governor. And even if he is not, this is bad optics for the state Democratic Party.

His district is a reach seat for the GOP and keep in mind that Democrats only won Mayor of Manassas by a slim margin last November.

We need a candidate to primary lee carter now!

[jamestroll]

We have to do everything we can to prevent Lee Carter from getting the nomination. I fear Republicans will all vote in the Dem primary for Lee Carter.

[jamestroll]

Not going to lie. The astrology slightly favors the GOP on election night. But its very slight.

Back tracking to 2013 the transits were similar. But Terry McAuliffe still won. So maybe a 2013 repeat.

The house of delegate elections will have to be held in both 2021 and 2022 officially.

Northern Virginia was voting for Democrats before Trump.

Prince William County is nearly 60% minority now and we must get them out to vote. The county was ran by Nazis until the 2019 elections due to lower off year turn out.

Loudoun County is demographic change and full of new tech workers.

Unlikely either county would vote for a GOP Gubernatorial candidate.


Come to think of it. I am one of the few out of state transplants in Fairfax. Most seem to move to Arlington or Loudoun.


The anti intellectualism of the gop has boosted Democratic margins in nova which countered the rural wing trend and more. But for better or worse it's a pro business state. While I believe right to work would go down in a state vote binding vote there has been a lot of resistance to business covid restrictions here.

If Democrats become a permanent lockdown party, or perceived as such it would be a much more competitive state.

Its also kind of a myth that all VA Republicans are far right. There is a string of gop delegates in Richmond metro and Hampton Roads who won in 2019 while touting they voted for medicaid expansion for instance.

The main for the GOP winning is it is hard to identify where exactly in rural Virginia they would be able to find more votes and the demographics of Hampton Roads make it difficult for them to win Virginia Beach by the double digit margin they would need to help them win statewide.

It is difficult to predict congressional and statewide elections with astrology. So many caveats and variables are involved. The candidate may win but his party may lose or the candidate has his own personal crisis. A candidate may lose but is relieved he does not have the responsibility any longer.  A candidate could win but immediately placed in a testing situation once in office. Plus I almost never have birth times for candidates which is the major handicap.

[jamestroll]

Do not risk the election by nominating a crazy candidate.

If the VA GOP wins VA Gov and in the 2022 Midterms knock of Dem House seats the GOP will absolutely try to contest the state in 2024. The last thing Democrats need is to triage another state after the 2026 midterm elections.

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

A winning GOP map doesn’t exist without winning Loudon or Henrico counties.

Incorrect

[jamestroll]

Youngkin is the one to watch.  He's going to have a heck of a time getting through the convention, but if he does, he's likely favored in the GE.

Nominating Chase would be throwing the GE away, and Snyder is old news now and pretty boring.  IDK about Kirk Cox, but holding on decisively in 2019 in that district was impressive and he has some bipartisan accomplishments he can sell. 

Please explain why you think Youngkin is favored in the general election?

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

While "even swing" is never a real thing that happens, for fun here is how an R victory looks in VA under such an even swing.



(click to enlarge)

Indeed, the GOP doesn't even need to come close in any of those. While even swing is unrealistic, cutting dems to the low-mid 50s would in those counties would be more than enough. Of course, the GOP also does need north Korean margins out of the rural areas.

The GOP does need to win some suburban counties  outright though, most notably: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Stafford and Chseterfield

Honestly, the Dem vote is insanely concentrated into just a handful of jurisdictions. Even under even swing, if for some bizarre reason the GOP managed a 10 point victory, they'd be cutting dems to just like 4 counties lol

Yes. I think in a real life Virginia election in which the GOP wins, Fairfax would swing more than the statewide median. It does have many never Trumpers and Biden's 70% is not sustainable there. Clinton's 2016 performance is the better baseline. Loudoun may swing more than the statewide median as well but a Republican actually winning it? Nah.

[jamestroll]

https://roanoke.com/news/state-and-regional/house-leaders-northam-administration-propose-new-school-reopening-bill/article_53cac002-6f09-11eb-8c1f-134a5f73ca3c.html

House leaders, Northam administration propose new school reopening bill

Watch this bill. This will decide a lot how the Virginia Gubernatorial Election will be decided this fall.

RICHMOND — A push to reopen Virginia schools for in-person learning — using the force of state law — will face the will of House lawmakers this week.

House Democratic leaders and Gov. Ralph Northam’s administration are championing a new version of a Senate bill that would still compel in-person learning but offer school districts some flexibility in the face of an ever-evolving global crisis.

The new version, which will be introduced during a meeting of the House’s education panel Monday morning, would replace Senate Bill 1303 introduced by Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, which passed the Senate Feb. 2 on a 26-13 vote with bipartisan support.

Dunnavant’s one-line bill simply says that all school districts “shall make virtual and in-person learning available to all students by choice of the student’s parent or guardian.”

In the midst of a pandemic it is rationale to provide a virtual learning option to parents who prefer. It is not rationale to stunt an entire generations of students learning and growth.

[jamestroll]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

[jamestroll]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

1) Lee Carter and Justin Fairfax are not acceptable nominees.

2) Contrary to popular belief.. indefinite virtual school is not going to be popular. and it is not unreasonable to think that if this fall there is a small covid resurgence and Democratic governors lock down over that and the flu that there would be a backlash. Especially if this fall, kids in Virginia are still not in school.

[jamestroll]

Look at the swing of the Shenandoah Valley from 2004 to 2020. It is an attractive area to live in and it would not be unrealistic to expect some internal migrations there. Lower cost of living, phenomenal scenery, and not completely isolated from civilization.

Still votes crushingly Republican though



But votes much like present day Missouri and Indiana.

[jamestroll]

I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

Well so many people are SCREAMING that suburbs and white college voters will all go back to the GOP now that Trump is out of office. In theory that would have an outsized effect in Virginia. But Nova /=/ other suburbs.

I agree Democrats will win this election but not by much. Single digits.

[jamestroll]

I predict with medium-high confidence that the GOP will carry Chesterfield County, VA in November.

They will not even come close in Henrico or Loudoun counties despite people believe there is no path to a GOP victory in the state without them.

[jamestroll]

The Republican candidates are so boring. Like, three of them are running on the same message, and Amanda Chase is... well, Amanda Chase.

Jill Vogel should’ve ran.

They are running on opening up schools when by fall all schools will be fully open! And right now the largest districts in the state are on a hybrid model.  Even I am sympathetic to the pandemic concerns of many children and parents. I always chuckle when the anti-school openers think we want to force kids to be exposed to the virus. Almost all school reopening plans include a virtual open. That is rationale during the pandemic but it can't be a permanent option.

Pete Snyder's may message may have won him a gubernatorial election yesterday but not on November 2nd.  Plus the restrictions during covid in Virginia have been rather light compared to most Biden states.

I agree that Jill Vogel would have probably been their best best. Kirk Cox is so boring... yawnnn.

[jamestroll]

So I did some calculations. Numbers will vary because people will have different opinions on which counties are party of "metro" areas in Missouri and Virginia. Particularly Hampton Roads.

But for Missouri Trump won non-metro Missouri with 76% of the vote.

Using that same ration for Virginia, which I adjusted to 75% Trump to 25% Biden to account for some disagreement on metro area lines, if Trump won rural Virginia by the same ratio as he won rural Missouri Biden would have won the state of Virginia only 51% to 48%.

If rural Virginia whites voted like whites further south and the GOP made marginal black gains, 75% in rural VA is not unrealistic!

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Minnesota would be over before they started if their hick areas voted like rural Missouri.

But basically a Republican candidate would have to get rural MO numbers in rural VA and get the people in Great Falls, McLean in Fairfax County to vote GOP and win back Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach handily to win statewide.

[jamestroll]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?

Maybe, but Virginia is different enough from America-writ-large now in terms of the people you have to appeal to to win that the path will be harder and having a Virginian on a presidential ticket is probably a net negative in the current alignment (as 2016 arguably showed).

Because as 2020 "arguably showed", having a San Franciscan on the presidential ticket is less of a net negative in the current alignment than a Virginian on the ticket.

He is a good poster but at times I have seen very strange takes from him.