Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[MT Treasurer]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

Yes, but governor's elections are different, as KY, KS, LA, VT, MA, and neighboring MD can tell you.  

Ironically, the kind of coalition + conditions that allowed Hogan to pull off an upset in MD may not exist in VA. I’d also argue that VA's D base is more inflexible than that of MD and very much tends to turn out in off-year elections.

Likely D.

[jamestroll]

The GOP nomination will be decided nearly 6 weeks prior to the June 8th Democratic primary.

It is not necessarily advantageous to the GOP. High profile contested primaries are often good for general election prospects as it brings much attention to the candidates and the winner of the primary.

I also expect that if a stronger candidate emerges from the GOP convention that Democrats will likely choose Terry McAuliffe but if a weaker candidate such as Chase emerges it is possible that Jennifer Carol Foy may be a get a second look for her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE.  

An underrated possibility of the 2021 elections in VA is this: the lower ballot Lt. Gov and Attorney General races become generic R v D and Democrats win but the GOP narrowly winning the governorship.

But I would not bet money on the GOP winning VA-GOV though.

Their screaming about REOPENING SCHOOLS now is a good campaign for January 2021 but by this fall it is highly unlikely that schools will be remote still. And its highly unlikely there will be any substantial restrictions in Virginia at all for the economy expect perhaps a 250 person gathering limit. The GOP seems to be running a campaign right now that could work for now but not for November.

[jamestroll]

"I'm not a politician," he says in the video. "I've spent the last 30 years building business and creating jobs. . . . It's going to take an outsider, a new kind of leader, to bring a new day to Virginia."

uhh has this really been a winning campaign in Virginia recently?

yes the GOP could win the Governorship but I would not bet on it.

and the fact is that Democrats within VA are pretty nervous and ready to fight. The opposite of Democrats in most states who were over confident and saw disappointing results in the 2020 elections.

50% of Virginians are reliable Democrats. 44% are reliable Republicans. the remainder are the battleground at this point.

And unlike Maryland, a Republican Governor would yield a lot of power and influence over policy. So I see MT Treasurers point.

[Skill and Chance]

The GOP nomination will be decided nearly 6 weeks prior to the June 8th Democratic primary.

It is not necessarily advantageous to the GOP. High profile contested primaries are often good for general election prospects as it brings much attention to the candidates and the winner of the primary.

I also expect that if a stronger candidate emerges from the GOP convention that Democrats will likely choose Terry McAuliffe but if a weaker candidate such as Chase emerges it is possible that Jennifer Carol Foy may be a get a second look for her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE.  

An underrated possibility of the 2021 elections in VA is this: the lower ballot Lt. Gov and Attorney General races become generic R v D and Democrats win but the GOP narrowly winning the governorship.

But I would not bet money on the GOP winning VA-GOV though.

Their screaming about REOPENING SCHOOLS now is a good campaign for January 2021 but by this fall it is highly unlikely that schools will be remote still. And its highly unlikely there will be any substantial restrictions in Virginia at all for the economy expect perhaps a 250 person gathering limit. The GOP seems to be running a campaign right now that could work for now but not for November.

I forgot about the convention system.  That could hurt this guy's odds significantly vs. the party insider candidates.  

[jamestroll]

The GOP nomination will be decided nearly 6 weeks prior to the June 8th Democratic primary.

It is not necessarily advantageous to the GOP. High profile contested primaries are often good for general election prospects as it brings much attention to the candidates and the winner of the primary.

I also expect that if a stronger candidate emerges from the GOP convention that Democrats will likely choose Terry McAuliffe but if a weaker candidate such as Chase emerges it is possible that Jennifer Carol Foy may be a get a second look for her candidacy.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE.  

An underrated possibility of the 2021 elections in VA is this: the lower ballot Lt. Gov and Attorney General races become generic R v D and Democrats win but the GOP narrowly winning the governorship.

But I would not bet money on the GOP winning VA-GOV though.

Their screaming about REOPENING SCHOOLS now is a good campaign for January 2021 but by this fall it is highly unlikely that schools will be remote still. And its highly unlikely there will be any substantial restrictions in Virginia at all for the economy expect perhaps a 250 person gathering limit. The GOP seems to be running a campaign right now that could work for now but not for November.

I forgot about the convention system.  That could hurt this guy's odds significantly vs. the party insider candidates.  

Yes. We will know the GOP nominee on May 1st. The GOP now has two "successful" businessman running for the GOP Nomination.

I appreciate Synder's 30 Day Fund to help small businesses during the pandemic and his reopening schools and business sentiment but I would never even consider voting for him.  This pandemic is temporary and will will be looking at the back door of it by this fall.

This will allow Dems to strategize their primary on June 8th. A weaker Republican could well result in Jennifer Carrol Foy being the first African American female Governor in the United States.

[slothdem]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

Yes, but governor's elections are different, as KY, KS, LA, VT, MA, and neighboring MD can tell you.  

Ironically, the kind of coalition + conditions that allowed Hogan to pull off an upset in MD may not exist in VA. I’d also argue that VA's D base is more inflexible than that of MD and very much tends to turn out in off-year elections.

Likely D.

You are correct that the conditions that allowed for a Hogan victory in Maryland are not replicable in Virginia. There is no need for a check on a legislature with Democratic supermajorities, nor are there supermajorities to severely limit conservatives gubernatorial power. And there isn't five decades of Democratic rule to run against, nor are the taxes in Virginia high enough to revolt against, all of which were necessary ingredients for Hogan's upset of Brown.

But I'm curious as to what makes you think Virginia's D base is more inflexible than Maryland's. Both have a substantial number of DC-adjacent ultra-partisan dems, but Maryland's black population is 50% higher.

[beaver2.0]

I admit I don't understand Snyder or Youngkin.  I get Kirk Cox (generic republican), de la Pena (conservative but was military), and Chase but what are Snyder and Youngkin's lanes?  Are they just trying to portray themselves as business conservatives or is there something more?

[free my dawg]

In other fall from grace news, we have Lee Carter.

After spending his political capital backing the biggest meme candidate of 2020, he's apparently burning his bridges with the local DSA (including his campaign manager from 2017). Apparently he got pissy over what he thought wasn't enough work for his priorities, and people criticizing his wife's DSA clone group/grift for doing nothing.

Now he's trying the Kennedy strat on them. He's spent the last few hours being terminally Online and  whining about DSA/Foy Bros or something like that. Really deranged stuff.

[jamestroll]

In other fall from grace news, we have Lee Carter.

After spending his political capital backing the biggest meme candidate of 2020, he's apparently burning his bridges with the local DSA (including his campaign manager from 2017). Apparently he got pissy over what he thought wasn't enough work for his priorities, and people criticizing his wife's DSA clone group/grift for doing nothing.

Now he's trying the Kennedy strat on them. He's spent the last few hours being terminally Online and  whining about DSA/Foy Bros or something like that. Really deranged stuff.

I am terrified he will be the Democratic nominee for governor. And even if he is not, this is bad optics for the state Democratic Party.

His district is a reach seat for the GOP and keep in mind that Democrats only won Mayor of Manassas by a slim margin last November.

We need a candidate to primary lee carter now!

[free my dawg]

In other fall from grace news, we have Lee Carter.

After spending his political capital backing the biggest meme candidate of 2020, he's apparently burning his bridges with the local DSA (including his campaign manager from 2017). Apparently he got pissy over what he thought wasn't enough work for his priorities, and people criticizing his wife's DSA clone group/grift for doing nothing.

Now he's trying the Kennedy strat on them. He's spent the last few hours being terminally Online and  whining about DSA/Foy Bros or something like that. Really deranged stuff.

I am terrified he will be the Democratic nominee for governor. And even if he is not, this is bad optics for the state Democratic Party.

His district is a reach seat for the GOP and keep in mind that Democrats only won Mayor of Manassas by a slim margin last November.

We need a candidate to primary lee carter now!

Dude is a joke lmao. He's not gonna break 10%.

[jamestroll]

We have to do everything we can to prevent Lee Carter from getting the nomination. I fear Republicans will all vote in the Dem primary for Lee Carter.

[PSOL]

I’m sorry, but the local DSA threw the first stone by harassing his wife on Twitter. Lee Carter still remains the best option for Virginia.

[Skunk]

In other fall from grace news, we have Lee Carter.

After spending his political capital backing the biggest meme candidate of 2020, he's apparently burning his bridges with the local DSA (including his campaign manager from 2017). Apparently he got pissy over what he thought wasn't enough work for his priorities, and people criticizing his wife's DSA clone group/grift for doing nothing.

Now he's trying the Kennedy strat on them. He's spent the last few hours being terminally Online and  whining about DSA/Foy Bros or something like that. Really deranged stuff.

He spent the last few years being terminally online if we're being completely honest.

[jamestroll]

Not going to lie. The astrology slightly favors the GOP on election night. But its very slight.

Back tracking to 2013 the transits were similar. But Terry McAuliffe still won. So maybe a 2013 repeat.

The house of delegate elections will have to be held in both 2021 and 2022 officially.

Northern Virginia was voting for Democrats before Trump.

Prince William County is nearly 60% minority now and we must get them out to vote. The county was ran by Nazis until the 2019 elections due to lower off year turn out.

Loudoun County is demographic change and full of new tech workers.

Unlikely either county would vote for a GOP Gubernatorial candidate.


Come to think of it. I am one of the few out of state transplants in Fairfax. Most seem to move to Arlington or Loudoun.


The anti intellectualism of the gop has boosted Democratic margins in nova which countered the rural wing trend and more. But for better or worse it's a pro business state. While I believe right to work would go down in a state vote binding vote there has been a lot of resistance to business covid restrictions here.

If Democrats become a permanent lockdown party, or perceived as such it would be a much more competitive state.

Its also kind of a myth that all VA Republicans are far right. There is a string of gop delegates in Richmond metro and Hampton Roads who won in 2019 while touting they voted for medicaid expansion for instance.

The main for the GOP winning is it is hard to identify where exactly in rural Virginia they would be able to find more votes and the demographics of Hampton Roads make it difficult for them to win Virginia Beach by the double digit margin they would need to help them win statewide.

It is difficult to predict congressional and statewide elections with astrology. So many caveats and variables are involved. The candidate may win but his party may lose or the candidate has his own personal crisis. A candidate may lose but is relieved he does not have the responsibility any longer.  A candidate could win but immediately placed in a testing situation once in office. Plus I almost never have birth times for candidates which is the major handicap.

[Torrain]

I’m sorry, but the local DSA threw the first stone by harassing his wife on Twitter. Lee Carter still remains the best option for Virginia.

The thrice-married, self-declared socialist, with no real legislative experience, and a history of public tantrums is the best candidate?

May I ask, in all honesty - how?

[Lief 🗽]

TMAC keeps this race as Toss-up/Tilt D. Any of the other jokers on this ballot and general election becomes Lean R at best.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1360672268330946567

[Alcibiades]

TMAC keeps this race as Toss-up/Tilt D. Any of the other jokers on this ballot and general election becomes Lean R at best.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1360672268330946567

Uh, more like likely/safe D and lean/safe D respectively.

[jamestroll]

Do not risk the election by nominating a crazy candidate.

If the VA GOP wins VA Gov and in the 2022 Midterms knock of Dem House seats the GOP will absolutely try to contest the state in 2024. The last thing Democrats need is to triage another state after the 2026 midterm elections.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

TMac - Safe D

McClellan/Foy - Likely D

Fairfax - Toss-Up

Carter - Lean R

[KaiserDave]

Safe D with anyone besides Fairfax and maaaaybe Carter nothing to see here

[Lief 🗽]

Things can go very badly very fast in midterms. Virginia swung 23 points Republican between 2008 and 2009. Kirk Cox is at least narrowly favored against everyone but The Macker.

[Alcibiades]

Things can go very badly very fast in midterms. Virginia swung 23 points Republican between 2008 and 2009. Kirk Cox is at least narrowly favored against everyone but The Macker.

Virginia is a fundamentally more Democratic state than it was in 2009. It is only half-exaggerating to say that it might as well be California at this point.

[VAR]

Things can go very badly very fast in midterms. Virginia swung 23 points Republican between 2008 and 2009. Kirk Cox is at least narrowly favored against everyone but The Macker.

Virginia is a fundamentally more Democratic state than it was in 2009. It is only half-exaggerating to say that it might as well be California at this point.

You may not know him well, but Lief is one of the oldest and most skilled trolls on this site.

[Alcibiades]

Things can go very badly very fast in midterms. Virginia swung 23 points Republican between 2008 and 2009. Kirk Cox is at least narrowly favored against everyone but The Macker.

Virginia is a fundamentally more Democratic state than it was in 2009. It is only half-exaggerating to say that it might as well be California at this point.

You may not know him well, but Lief is one of the oldest and most skilled trolls on this site.

I tend to see “42,000 posts” and assume they should be taken seriously, but then again, BRTD and Tender exist...

[Continential]

TMac - Safe D

McClellan/Foy - Likely D

Fairfax - Toss-Up

Carter - Lean R

Yes, because being a socialist will make it worse then being a rapist.