Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Johnson]

Lmao Carter.

Having such a relatively wide field should further help T-Mac, who has by far the biggest name recognition. Assuming all contender even make it to the primary.

[jamestroll]

That's actually a really good video.

Still a laughably quixotic move.

It is a very good video. Hence why he needs to stay in the House of Delegates and represent Manassas in the House of Delegates and not run for Governor.

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1345053262848946177


Carter officialy announced.

His seat will be flipping anyway.

Probably not. It technically is a reach seat for the GOP but if someone like Carter could hold it it is an uphill climb for the GOP.

[The Mikado]

Isn't the whole premise here that Carter has no reason not to because he can run for reelection to his State House seat and run for Governor at the same time, so why not do both?

Obviously he's not gonna win the latter, but I was under the impression he's just going to file for both races simultaneously and that that's allowed.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't the whole premise here that Carter has no reason not to because he can run for reelection to his State House seat and run for Governor at the same time, so why not do both?

Obviously he's not gonna win the latter, but I was under the impression he's just going to file for both races simultaneously and that that's allowed.

Yeah, which is why I suspect this move is done because he wants a bigger megaphone, not because he actually thinks he can defeat TMac/JCF - that's just a huge bonus if it actually happens.

[forrestsaver]

Wait, Lee Carter? As in the openly socialist delegate? This is gonna be fun.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/virginia-state-sen-ben-chafin-dies-from-covid-19-complications/


SW  Ben Chafin  SD-38 VA state senator dies of COVID.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Isn't the whole premise here that Carter has no reason not to because he can run for reelection to his State House seat and run for Governor at the same time, so why not do both?

Obviously he's not gonna win the latter, but I was under the impression he's just going to file for both races simultaneously and that that's allowed.

Yeah, which is why I suspect this move is done because he wants a bigger megaphone, not because he actually thinks he can defeat TMac/JCF - that's just a huge bonus if it actually happens.

Yeah, it's a decent political move to try and increase his name rec for a potential run for House or Senate in the future.

[prag_prog]

Carter's ad is pretty good imo

[Lambsbread]

I support Carter in the primary strictly as a middle finger to TMac.

[Mr. Smith]

No serious issues with T-Mac, but Carter's the better option.

[jamestroll]

URGENT! Please support Terry Mcauliffe.

https://terrymcauliffe.com/

The HD-02 special election results are concerning with the caveat that few people paid attention or even know that election was occurring. Even I was barely aware of it.. and I follow VA politics closely.

Donate to him now!!

We may not be able to redraw the delegate lines yet and he is the only candidate that can keep the house of delegates.

[Virginiá]

Candi King (D) beat Heather Mitchell (R) in a special election for HD-02 on Jan 5th, caused by Foy resigning to focus on her gubernatorial run.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-voters-choosing-successors-to-former-delegates-in-special-election/2021/01/05/e604a864-4ee0-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

King, a program assistant for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and a former aide to state Sens. L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) and Lionell Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake), won with 51.49 percent of the vote to Mitchell’s 48.4 percent, according to unofficial results.

It was a closer outcome than Carroll Foy’s victories by large margins in 2017 and 2019, but one that nevertheless solidified Democratic control in a district that has been at the center of a blue wave sweeping through Virginia, giving Democrats control of the General Assembly in 2019.

Republicans nearly flipped a district that went for Clinton by 20 points and Biden by 30. Foy won by 21 points in 2019.

The first of what will be many disappointing elections by Democrats until 2024 at least, if history is any guide.

[Not Me, Us]

URGENT! Please support Terry Mcauliffe.

https://terrymcauliffe.com/

The HD-02 special election results are concerning with the caveat that few people paid attention or even know that election was occurring. Even I was barely aware of it.. and I follow VA politics closely.

Donate to him now!!

We may not be able to redraw the delegate lines yet and he is the only candidate that can keep the house of delegates.

McAuliffe sucks. No reason for a moderate in a safe D state.

[jamestroll]

Candi King (D) beat Heather Mitchell (R) in a special election for HD-02 on Jan 5th, caused by Foy resigning to focus on her gubernatorial run.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-voters-choosing-successors-to-former-delegates-in-special-election/2021/01/05/e604a864-4ee0-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html

King, a program assistant for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and a former aide to state Sens. L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) and Lionell Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake), won with 51.49 percent of the vote to Mitchell’s 48.4 percent, according to unofficial results.

It was a closer outcome than Carroll Foy’s victories by large margins in 2017 and 2019, but one that nevertheless solidified Democratic control in a district that has been at the center of a blue wave sweeping through Virginia, giving Democrats control of the General Assembly in 2019.

Republicans nearly flipped a district that went for Clinton by 20 points and Biden by 30. Foy won by 21 points in 2019.

The first of what will be many disappointing elections by Democrats until 2024 at least, if history is any guide.

To be fair it was a special election that very few people knew about. But the safe d Virginia stuff needs to stop.

[KaiserDave]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'd love to see precinct-level results for HD-02 but VPAP doesn't have them and may never have them due to weirdness of vote by mail.

Looking back it looks like JCF racked up big margins here by flipping (bigly) Eastern Woodbridge and turning out great margins in the D core of the county (waterfront precincts) and close losses around Aquia Harbor. The only time the district has voted R in recent memory was another low-turnout 2015 race where Dudenheffer won by 1%. Looks like this coalition relied on big wins in Western Stafford and also overperforming around Woodbridge.

Hard to extrapolate from this too much without precinct-level results. But with the exurban development in PWC and Stafford (the latter of which Biden won) + military presence in Quantico this doesn't really seem like the type of place where Ds should be underperforming and failing to turn out votes. Ds swept the district in 2013 (including knocking off incumbent Dudenheffer) and it even voted for Warner in 2014. In the absence of precinct-level stuff to comb over I'd bet this is more a weird circumstance outcome (super low turnout for some reason) combined with the fact there was an established R candidate (also ran in 2019) and King sounds like she has spent a lot of time in recent years working outside of the district meaning her local support network wasn't really built up.

2015 result
Mark Dudenhefer (R)    5,839    50.41%
Josh King (D)                    5,714    49.33%
map: https://www.vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-2/election-results-map/?election=7152

2019 result
Jennifer Carroll Foy (D)    11,828    60.92%
Heather Mitchell (R)            7,563    38.95%
map: https://www.vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-2/election-results-map/?election=9762

[beaver2.0]

Pete Snyder set to join the race today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/businessman-pete-snyder-joins-race-for-virginia-governor/2021/01/25/91f4dabc-5036-11eb-b96e-0e54447b23a1_story.html

[jamestroll]

Pete Snyder set to join the race today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/businessman-pete-snyder-joins-race-for-virginia-governor/2021/01/25/91f4dabc-5036-11eb-b96e-0e54447b23a1_story.html

Irrespective of the special election results in HD-02... I do not fear this candidate and believe Mcaffullie, Jennifer McClellan governor or Jennifer Carol Foy could defeat him/

[Tiger08]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

[Tiger08]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

Apparently he's a former CEO who is also in charge of a group that retrains workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic

Interesting.  IMO this guy has serious Hogan potential if his campaign gets off the ground.  He'll either get <5% in the primary or win it.  Dems would much rather be facing one of the career legislators in the GE. 

[VAR]

Glenn Youngkin? Youngkin?

Is he related to Young Kim? If so he'd lose Buchanan County by as much as George W. Bush did in 2000 imo

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

Yes, but governor's elections are different, as KY, KS, LA, VT, MA, and neighboring MD can tell you.