Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

Odd year primaries clearly make it easier for R's to keep the nomination from crazier populist candidates in the Trump era.  However, they seem to make it easier for far left D's to get through.

[Skill and Chance]

Chap Petersen:

Joined Republicans to cast the deciding vote to kill mask mandates in schools
Founded the Redskins Pride Caucus to defend the Washington Football Team’s former name

He is my hero. Shame he lost.

He was running like he was in a Biden +7/Youngkin+5 district.

[Skill and Chance]

With apparently all votes in McPike is the apparent winner and leads Guzman by 46 votes in SD29, though a recount is possible here.

Interesting.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that whether or not Guzman is on the GE ballot could be outcome determinative for the chamber.  Even if that district doesn’t flip, that bill she sponsored reads like an existential threat to Christian parents (even many who softly support SSM) and Virginia is more religious than the nationwide average.  Ads with CPS agents taking your kids away after you tell them that men can’t get pregnant or teach them that “everyone has a mommy and a daddy” would blanket the airwaves for 2 months straight

[Skill and Chance]

With apparently all votes in McPike is the apparent winner and leads Guzman by 46 votes in SD29, though a recount is possible here.

Interesting.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that whether or not Guzman is on the GE ballot could be outcome determinative for the chamber.  Even if that district doesn’t flip, that bill she sponsored reads like an existential threat to Christian parents (even many who softly support SSM) and Virginia is more religious than the nationwide average.  Ads with CPS agents taking your kids away after you tell them that men can’t get pregnant or teach them that “everyone has a mommy and a daddy” would blanket the airwaves for 2 months straight

Even in NoVA I was surprised by the level of religiosity. Much more than comparable metros I've lived in in other parts of the country.

I saw a county map of % church attendance not long ago and VA doesn’t deviate from the generic Upper South trend until you are practically in Arlington.

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

By contrast, the HoD situation actually looks somewhat better when running to the left, because the seats are small enough that the college vote can control several of them downstate if turnout is high enough.  A big part of the 2010's gerrymander was drowning out college towns with 75% R rural areas, and that has been unwound on the new map.  In some cases, the same also applies with majority-black small cities. 

The left wing nomination fest last night could have really shaken things up.  I wouldn't be shocked if both chambers flipped on a competitive night.  Could be easier to drive up turnout and flip narrow Youngkin college town districts than narrow Youngkin wealthy outer suburbs districts, especially with an R campaign aimed at parents of young children.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1671524636805283843?cxt=HHwWhoC-oaKzubIuAAAA

I would be careful about extrapolating this beyond odd year elections.

1. Extremely low turnout compared to a presidential primary

2. Lots of districts where practically everyone went to college

[Skill and Chance]

McPike's lead in SD-29 is now down to 26 votes and Guzman overperformed with mail-in votes in both counties in the district.  This one is probably going to flip with the late mail-ins that arrive by Friday.

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats. 

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats. 

I think in the HOD, you are missing the Biden + 11/Youngkin +2 south side seat (Kim Taylor).

So both chambers are probably Tilt D to Lean D?

Well, looking at that distribution of seats, and including the additional Southside one, I am tempted to describe the lower house as Lean D but Likely Not R because of a tie being unbroken.  However, R's do currently control it, so IDK, but that was in part because there was malapportionment against NOVA with the map being used for an extra cycle and because it remained something of an R gerrymander north of Richmond (the part of the map not impacted by the late 2010's  court ruling).

In the state senate, it feels like everything is riding on that outer Loudoun seat now, and R's have a moderate federal consultant type candidate who can easily distinguish himself from Trump.  They also nominated some people in NOVA who could make great R campaign ads.  I'm actually inclined to call it a toss up.

[Skill and Chance]

McPike netted a bunch of votes from the late-arriving mail ballots and has likely clinched in SD-29.

[Skill and Chance]

Cunningham and Coffey won the nomination after RCV was tabulated.

Looks like I'll be voting for Cunningham and Audrey Clement this fall.

The tabulation of the RCV was odd (really don't think that there was a need to wait until 5:30pm on a Friday to announce this).

Still surprised by the results -- I assumed that Roy and Spain would be the victor. Ultimately it was close though--just 700 votes separated Coffey and Spain in Spain's last round, for instance.

They had to wait because mail-in votes postmarked by election day and received up to some time during the business day on Friday count in Virginia.  You can't start RCV without having all of the votes in.

If California ever did RCV statewide, we wouldn't know the results until Christmas Eve!

[Skill and Chance]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

Well, a lot of the number crunchers went into this with the assumption that the VA State Senate would close to Likely D while the HoD would be a toss up.  However, several things have happened to change this assessment leading to a place where both chambers could reasonably flip:

1. A 20/20 tie in the state senate goes to R's through the LG, while a 50/50 tie in the HoD cannot be broken and leads to power sharing unless someone switches parties (note there are no remaining rural Dems in the HoD who would obviously consider switching).

2. Individual candidates matter more in the smaller state senate.  Both of the strong Dem incumbents in Lean R rural-ish districts retired and R's nominated their strongest candidate in every one of the several Lean R Biden +5-10/Youngkin +5-10 seats.  They also a Susan Collins type candidate who is a moderately pro-choice OBGYN who already won a significantly Clinton 2016 district in the 2019 elections running in a Richmond area Dem-leaning seat (admittedly, it's a stretch at Biden +16, but D's will at the very least have to divert resources there).  If she gets through and R's win all of the Lean R districts, they have tied even without the median Biden +13/Youngkin +1 district.  However, this cuts the other way in the HoD because R's need to sweep several Biden +12ish districts with anonymous people. 

3. Outer NOVA is shaky.  The VA-10 area contains the most likely decisive seat for state senate control and it barely voted left of 2021 Youngkin/McAuliffe in the 2022 US House elections.  The Biden numbers probably don't work there anymore.

4. On the other hand, downstate college towns look great for Dems and turnout was surprisingly high in these areas in the primary.  Many of the decisive seats are anchored by college towns.  There's also a seat in the Richmond suburbs that is racing left.  Biden barely won it, but then it voted for McAuliffe in 2021 and the no-name congressional Dem in 2022.  They only need to win a couple of these seats to count to 50. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1003443
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1003442

It seems the Democrat was kicked off the ballot in the ninth and tenth senate districts because they did not file paperwork on time and the Board of Elections refused to extend it. Why couldn't they just file on time?

The second district is the Tenth District. Did Democrats just automatically lose one seat unless the write in campaign succeeds?

Those districts are both safe R >65% Youngkin seats on the new map.  It's not surprising Dems wouldn't contest them.  Special elections as late as this year happened on the old maps.  The old District 9 was a black-majority VRA seat east of Richmond and the old District 10 was a competitive suburban seat west of Richmond held by a moderate R in the Obama era that became very Dem after Trump and flipped in 2019.  They both became blood red rural/exurbs seats after redistricting/renumbering. 

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

Nah the real nationalization is Youngkin proposing a supposed 'compromise' on Abortion when the electorate doesn't really see it as a compromise.

Where does this poll show majority opposition to a 15 week abortion ban? I only see a question about legality in all, some, or no cases.

We've never had a referendum where the choice was between a 15 week limit with the standard self-defense exemptions for life endangerment and rape vs. the standard Dem ballot initiative position legal to viability with life/health exemption to term, including mental health, so we don't really know.  We will probably get to see this play out in AZ next year.

Right now, too many people think any new restrictions at all are just step 1 to a total ban, and this guy got recorded having that view in private.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

If 2023 is a rehash of 2022, Democrats win.

It's VA 1st year stuff that historically correlates with the midterm.  VA 3rd year stuff doesn't correlate with much of anything.

[Skill and Chance]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

Virginia is a politically interesting state that's undergoing a lot of trends that are representative of where the parties are headed. It was until recently an important swing state, and even though it's definitely in the Democratic column its state-level races are still engaging and can teach both parties a lot.

It also has elections throughout the state in both odd years and they have been highly competitive in recent times, which is unique.  The NJ legislature has been Dem for 20 years now and never came close to flipping back.

[Skill and Chance]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

Hmmm... the shutdown in 2013 likely explained the Dem wins in VA that year.  Only time the president's party has won the governorship since 1973, so it was pretty exceptional.

[Skill and Chance]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

That's a good point, though I wonder that the vast majority of people who will (rightly) blame the GOP for a government shutdown would be voting for the Democrats anyway.

If the GOP gets a lot of bad press on this a la 2013 then this would certainly hurt the GOP's candidates in the three or four competitive NOVA seats.

Outer NOVA decides the State Senate.  HoD depends more on college kid turnout and black turnout of all ages downstate.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not sure if this is accurate, but from watching the campaign so far my vibes tells me that Russet Perry isn't that strong of a candidate, and Segura probably has more of a chance than expected from the Biden +13 lean. I could be proven very wrong on election day though.

Why do you say that? 

In terms of state senate candidate quality, I wonder more about running an openly transgender former heavy metal band member running in the McAuliffe +4 western Prince William seat than running a career prosecutor specializing in sexual violence in the Youngkin +1 Loudoun seat.

[Skill and Chance]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

Haven't heard of this outfit before.  Looking on their website, it appears that all of the board members have Republican ties. 

In the crosstabs, they have a dramatic Dem underperformance in NOVA (46D/44R for the "DC DMA"), while Dems are doing quite well in Richmond (45D/37R) and Norfolk (50D/41R).  R's are getting 15% of the black vote and 46%(!) of the neither white nor black minority vote, while only leading 48/42 with white voters.  If this actually happened, it would probably flip both chambers.  I assume the NOVA result would come from PWC being weirdly close?   

It really does seem like VA statewide is snapping back toward a pre-Trump 2010's environment.  Not to say Dems will lose, but I expect it to be close.

[Skill and Chance]

Should be noted that co/efficient is Trumps pollster; and they had some wild results last year (like Oz getting 25% of the black vote), so I would take their results + crosstabs with a huge of grain of salt. With that said, the fact that they are still showing a D+1 edge bodes well for Ds IMO, given their house bias.

I agree this poll suggests Dems will continue to share power, especially after considering the pollster's past results.  Still, the relative swings could be really important to determine whether R's really are having a massive improvement with people who are neither white nor black (and it's the only 2023 state with several districts dominated by those groups).  For example, if D's win both chambers narrowly, but they won VA Beach and PWC by roughly the same single digit margin, I would start taking the NY Biden +12/PA Biden +2 idea very seriously.

[Skill and Chance]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

It's no longer merely the privacy of your home when you are purposely sharing it with thousands of followers on a public website, and for money at that.

Furthermore, this may surprise non-Virginians, but porn is actually a somewhat-hot issue in state politics right now. I expect it to have a bit more impact than usual due to that, as well as due to the resurgence of puritanical sexual ethics in the past year or two.

However, this easily ties into a statewide "R's are anti-woman" narrative and gender/sexuality issues in general.  I don't think VA R's benefit at all from having those issues front and center post-Dobbs.

This might make it more likely R's win that one seat.  IMO it also makes it more likely D's sweep all of the other swing seats because more R candidates end up saying stupid/misogynist stuff about this and related issues (one of them in a seat with a significant Biden margin already got recorded endorsing a total abortion ban).

[Skill and Chance]

It's possible that SD-31 (Segura vs Perry) might actually finish strictly to the right of the tipping point seat.

Agreed. This makes it look like SD-24 will vote left of SD-31 and be decisive (if R's hold SD-16, they have almost surely already flipped the chamber).  That would fit with the dynamic of people who are neither white nor black shifting R while college towns shift left (SD-24 has one of the larger public colleges in it).  There are some Loudoun-specific issues that are probably hurting Dems right now, too.

Also looks like Dems have just given up on SD-17 despite the substantial Biden margin there.