Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

If Democrats have a covid fear mongering campaign in the next cycle in Virginia, it could transition to quite a republican state.

If they do not have a covid fear mongering campaign, I would guess they win back the House of Delegates.

If we're talking about 2023, COVID will almost surely be conclusively over by then.  If a 2022 HoD election happens, that is a little iffier.  With presidential midterm turnout, I doubt VA Dems could flip back the HoD in 2022 anyway.  It would have to be driven by the new map, maybe with some Roe backlash thrown in.

[Skill and Chance]

If Democrats have a covid fear mongering campaign in the next cycle in Virginia, it could transition to quite a republican state.

If they do not have a covid fear mongering campaign, I would guess they win back the House of Delegates.

If we're talking about 2023, COVID will almost surely be conclusively over by then.  If a 2022 HoD election happens, that is a little iffier.  With presidential midterm turnout, I doubt VA Dems could flip back the HoD in 2022 anyway.  It would have to be driven by the new map, maybe with some Roe backlash thrown in.

COVID will never be “over”.  At some point it will be like the flu, but it will never be gone.

Anyway, the new HOD map will probably give Dems back their Fredericksburg seat by not splitting that city anymore.  They may also get another Loundon seat that is around Biden + 15.  That would tie the chamber again.

Wouldn't that be the existing narrow Biden Loudoun-Clarke seat they currently hold?  I think there would have to be 2 heavily Biden seats around Charlottesville/Albemarle, though, and possibly one more easy Dem seat in Chesterfield.

[Skill and Chance]

It is interesting how Virginia is more willing to elect Republican governors than North Carolina despite  being a more Dem friendly state. 

The moderate-conservative downballot Dems outside of the cities never truly collapsed in NC until like right now.  Cooper comes from that group that had been serving in the downballot Council of State offices for 10+ years.

VA also has way fewer elected offices than NC, which makes the 3 VA statewide offices higher profile and more nationalized. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/SenLouiseLucas/status/1483655674794057733
The Va democrate are truly screwed, aren't they ?

IDK they very online/crazy tweets strategy has worked better than anyone expected on both sides in the recent past.

[Skill and Chance]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

Geographically, it was a surprising vote distribution.  I don't think anyone went into this expecting Youngkin > Trump in Appalachia and Southside while NOVA and the Richmond area basically looked like 2016.  All the assumptions going in were that places like Loudoun and Prince William would be shockingly close if Youngkin won and that he would struggle with rural turnout.  This has forced me and many others to reevaluate our assumptions about Trump.

In CA, there were quite a lot of Trump/No-on-Recall voters in majority-Asian areas and not much additional R swing in majority-Hispanic areas.   

IDK if Dems should wish for more 2012-16 trends, though.  It would quickly make Texas a must-win state.

Also worth noting that R's had a > 4% lead in statewide PV for the HoD while the 2 seats that gave them control were both close enough for recounts.  That was even more unexpected.  Back in 2017, R's held the HoD with a 9% D lead statewide.  Most everyone assumed that the HoD would flip even with a narrow McAuliffe win and a modest statewide PV lead for D's.  Instead, they barely broke the tie.  A Youngkin +0.5/Generic HoD R +2.5 result would likely have returned a Dem-controlled HoD!

[Skill and Chance]

Are there any scientific polls that show what Virginians think of Youngkin?
Not these half-baked bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence?

No. He hasn't even been governor a month and hasnt done anything other than try to end mandatory masks in schools. All of this "OMG buyers remorse everyone hates him now" nonsense from the hacks is ridiculous. What, because he nominated a conservative no one has even heard of to a cabinet position and the guy wasnt even approved somehow people who voted for him now regret it? Like, seriously, I havent seen anything he's done that would prompt "buyers remorse". This is just hacks being hacks because they are desperate to talk about virginia even though there isnt anything yet to talk about. Again, hes been governor for like 3 weeks. What has he done to chase away scores of voters other than not be a democrat?

I can agree with you that most things will be predictable and boring for a while.

2022: Wexton wins narrowly, Luria loses convincingly but not landslided and Spanberger may get lucky.

2023: Democrats probably retake the HoD based on redistricting as long as Biden's isn't too far down in approval. Down to the wire at the end of the night.

2024: Democrats win Virginia  like by 4 to 5 points.

Democrats are lucky a substantial white Democratic population exists in Nova. Other wise, those results wouldn't be happening if my predictions are right. Hopefully for Democratic sake, they stay in Nova.

Youngkin is not the one who I am most angry at. It is the Attorney General. Sears is ok.. I voted for her out of anger.

2022: Luria is almost surely going to lose.  Wexton isn't totally safe, but if her new district flips, it's at least a 2014 level R wave.  Spanberger could go either way.  I could see her holding on in an otherwise very R year or just performing as Generic Dem.  She only outperformed Biden by about 1%, but on the other hand, hardly any congressional Dems anywhere outperformed Biden at all.

2023: This one will be the most interesting.  Any of the 4 possible outcomes seem plausible to me.

Dems flip the HoD back and hold the State Senate:  This would involve the traditional incumbent party bounce in the 3rd year elections vs. the midterm year.  It only requires a modest reversion to the VA mean to win both chambers as the new HoD map is now more favorable.  In a blowout, D's are realistically capped at 24 in the State Senate, but winning well over 60 seats in the HoD is possible.

Dems flip the HoD, GOP flips the State Senate: This would generally involve college town and outer NOVA turnout being high while R's continue to gain with black voters and break through in Hampton Roads/Southside.  They already hold the competitive  HoD seats in those areas, but there are 3 Lean-Likely D Hampton Roads senate seats that could flip.

GOP holds HoD, Dems hold State Senate: Probably involves some ancestral R reversion in outer NOVA and low college turnout, while D's win all the Hampton Roads Clinton seats with high black turnout and/or hold the Trump +1 ancestral D seat in the SW.   

GOP flips State Senate to take a trifecta: The decisive seat to get to a tie went for Biden by more than statewide, but it's doable if Biden's approval stays at least as low as today.  It would also help greatly if the Youngkin Hampton Roads overperformance continues. 

I'm torn between the first and the second scenario for now.  Waiting to see what happens in Hampton Roads and outer NOVA this fall.

2024: Almost surely a Dem win statewide, but almost surely not by double digits next time. 

2026/30: Does new VA-01 flip with a GOP president?

[Skill and Chance]

2026/30: Does new VA-01 flip with a GOP president?

Hmm, interesting but just do not see it is right now. Henrico is a portion of the new district but the vast  district full of hard liner rural areas makes me inclined to doubt to flip even in the Republican administration. I am sure there will be a few exciting polls though. But that is way to far in the future for me to entertain.

It also has the areas along I-64 near Williamsburg with a ton of Trump-Biden voters, though. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1493231639178231815
Hero!

Yea youngkin is absolutely right here. Those fat redneck hillbillies need to get vaccinated

This is probably why McAuliffe outran Biden in some rural areas.

? He didn't outrun Biden anywhere. He trailed Biden the least in SW Virginia, where there was arguably the least room to decrease.

Do you have a map of 2020->2021 top of the ticket swing in VA?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1493231639178231815
Hero!

Yea youngkin is absolutely right here. Those fat redneck hillbillies need to get vaccinated

This is probably why McAuliffe outran Biden in some rural areas.

Wat. There were actually *rural* areas where McAuliffe did better than Biden?

McAuliffe (2021) did worse than Biden in pretty much every municipality in the state.  There was substantial variation in how much worse, with the largest drop-offs I believe in Hampton Roads, rural Southside, and DC exurbs (not Loudoun/Prince William, but one ring of counties further out).

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1493231639178231815
Hero!

Yea youngkin is absolutely right here. Those fat redneck hillbillies need to get vaccinated

This is probably why McAuliffe outran Biden in some rural areas.

Wat. There were actually *rural* areas where McAuliffe did better than Biden?

McAuliffe (2021) did worse than Biden in pretty much every municipality in the state.  There was substantial variation in how much worse, with the largest drop-offs I believe in Hampton Roads, rural Southside, and DC exurbs (not Loudoun/Prince William, but one ring of counties further out).

Right. That's what I figured

It is true that some of the areas where McAuliffe (2021) fell off the least from Biden were in SWVA, but keep in mind both were in the teens in those counties.   McAuliffe also held up really well in Arlington, where Trump was in the high teens and Youngkin in the low 20's.   

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin’s Approval Rate Already Underwater
February 21, 2022 at 4:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 66 Comments

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Gov. Glenn Younhkin’s (R) approval rate is already underwater, 41% to 43%.

This does not mean he's terribly unpopular and should not be exaggerated.  Youngkin is substantially more popular on net than Biden.  If this approval held until late 2023, it's probably enough for Dems to narrowly deny him a trifecta, but -2 net is really pretty good for an R in VA and suggests he continues to be viewed in a different light from Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin’s Approval Rate Already Underwater
February 21, 2022 at 4:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 66 Comments

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Gov. Glenn Younhkin’s (R) approval rate is already underwater, 41% to 43%.

This does not mean he's terribly unpopular and should not be exaggerated.  Youngkin is substantially more popular on net than Biden.  If this approval held until late 2023, it's probably enough for Dems to narrowly deny him a trifecta, but -2 net is really pretty good for an R in VA and suggests he continues to be viewed in a different light from Trump.

On the other hand, he's been governor for 1 month.

That's fair.  If this is a honeymoon effect and it erodes to -12 by this time next year, very different story.

[Skill and Chance]

Governor Youngkin's abortion ban proposal has opposing Virginia Democrats fired up
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin unveiled the abortion measures in his budget proposal for the upcoming year on Thursday.

Whether it passes or not is immaterial, since Republicans in the General Assembly will not benefit either way.  I can only assume he thinks Republicans have no chance in the 2023 legislative elections anyway, so why not come out with what is basically a gesture that could only benefit him in the GOP presidential primaries?

I think it's more of a realization that they have no chance in the State Senate, so:

1. This is the last, best chance to make a deal with 1-2 moderate Dems while the chamber might only be 21D/19R.  It will probably be 24D/16R in the long run on this map. 

2. The districts in the lower house are small enough that there are primarily rural VRA seats and Hispanic opportunity seats in outer NOVA.  A pro-life turnout boost could flip a couple of these to make up for 1-2 near certain redistricting losses in a chamber that's currently 52R/48D.  R's could still reasonably hold the lower house, but they are narrowly disfavored in a traditional PVI sense. They need to pursue high variance strategies that could shake things up.

3. The PR benefit of showing that you don't have to "go full Northeast" to contest VA as a Republican sends a message to pro-life Biden district R's elsewhere. 

[Skill and Chance]

oof, no spending limits in legislative races too

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1614750407590572033

With an R LG, this is the decisive seat by Youngkin numbers.  Expect big spending on both sides here.  Campaigns funded by a single large donor have been the norm under VA law for a while.  As long as one side doesn't outspend the other by 10X or something, it's unlikely to be decisive.

[Skill and Chance]

SD-31 is Youngkin + 1 and Biden + 13; would be a very tough carry for any GOP challenger, but a lot of money certainly helps.

Honestly I find it interesting how in Loudon County, you actually have some "exurban" of even "rural" D support from a few wealthy communities, likely with some level of ties to DC.

They are generally gentlemen farmers who love their horses.  There are pockets of it further into Appalachia, too.  It's the closest Eastern equivalent to the highbrow liberal Colorado mountain towns. 

[Skill and Chance]

The Dem state senator drawn into a narrow Trump district in the mountains (he's not a Blue Dog, it was formerly gerrymandered to connect college towns) just announced his retirement today.  Likely R+1, which would mean back to 21D/19R, but there's also a West Richmond seat Dems are about equally likely to flip, so sticking with my prediction that it stays 22D/18R

This ends the prospect of Dems becoming veto-proof in a wave.

[Skill and Chance]

The Dem state senator drawn into a narrow Trump district in the mountains (he's not a Blue Dog, it was formerly gerrymandered to connect college towns) just announced his retirement today.  Likely R+1, which would mean back to 21D/19R, but there's also a West Richmond seat Dems are about equally likely to flip, so sticking with my prediction that it stays 22D/18R

This ends the prospect of Dems becoming veto-proof in a wave.

I assume you mean Creigh Deeds? But I don’t see any news about him retiring?

He probably means John S. Edwards.

Yes. 

Deeds' seat is inner NOVA level Safe D anyway due to Charlottesville. 

[Skill and Chance]

Another significant VA senate retirement: the Dem in the Youngkin +15/Trump +10 2016 Eastern Shore seat.  This was a narrow Obama/Clinton seat before it lost significant urban territory in redistricting.  He probably didn't have much of a chance anyway.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like something of a liberal revolt in inner NOVA.  Longtime incumbents Petersen and Barker with something of a reputation for deal-making are both down to more progressive primary challengers.  Also, as noted above, Petersen was by far the most libertarian Dem on COVID rules.  Between this and the retirements, the days of the state senate being the obviously more centrist chamber could be over.

Republicans generally kept their crazies away from the nomination in competitive state senate districts (most notably 12, 17, and 27).   


The incumbent progressive prosecutors in Arlington and Loudoun have won are against primary challengers who positioned themselves as tough on crime and the progressive incumbent in Fairfax is leading pretty significantly.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like something of a liberal revolt in inner NOVA.  Longtime incumbents Petersen and Barker with something of a reputation for deal-making are both down to more progressive primary challengers.  Also, as noted above, Petersen was by far the most libertarian Dem on COVID rules.  The incumbent progressive prosecutors in Arlington and Loudoun have won are against primary challengers who positioned themselves as tough on crime and the progressive incumbent in Fairfax is leading pretty significantly. 

Its making me very worried about the general electiom results.

I just added some info.  I think these results call into question whether the State Senate will actually be easier for Dems than the HoD.  Not so much because of the Petersen and Barker seats.  Those are >60% McAuliffe and would probably auto-elect any Dem not named Joe Morrisey in the general.  It's not like they nominated a lifelong professional activist in SD-31 (the most likely decisive seat in western Loudoun).  However, if Guzman actually wins SD-29 over incumbent McPike (there is a lot of vote left to count), that would be more concerning.  Guzman introduced a bill last year to revoke parental rights for parents who refuse to affirm their child's gender identity.  That's not a 100% safe seat and it's also the kind of place that is likely way more Dem than socially liberal.  

All of the Tilt R narrow Biden->Youngkin districts got the strongest Republican nominee tonight, so I don't see any freebies on the map for Dems elsewhere.    

[Skill and Chance]

Barker has a better chance of coming back than Petersen.

Also, wow Deeds vs. Hudson just got really close.  Was that the Charlottesville and Albemarle absentees?  If either of those are still out, it could plausibly flip.

[Skill and Chance]

What about Joel Griffin vs Tara Durant in SD-27?

Well, both parties just got their strongest candidate in that seat, but it votes significantly to the right of the state, especially in off years (~54% Youngkin in 2021).  I think that one was only going to be top tier competitive if it was the crazy R vs. the stronger D.

[Skill and Chance]

The Dominion-backed candidates aren't doing well.   They lost SD-13, most likely lost SD-33, and could lose SD-11.

Edit - Nvm, looks like Deeds won SD-11.

Looks like Deeds holds on?

Barker has a better chance of coming back than Petersen.

Also, wow Deeds vs. Hudson just got really close.  Was that the Charlottesville and Albemarle absentees?  If either of those are still out, it could plausibly flip.

There was a data entry error in Deeds' favor that made the race look locked, but now corrected it remains close. However, Deeds should still hold on given he leads by 600 votes and barely anything is left.

FWIW that district/area is known for that.  An error there flipped control of the state senate once corrected in 2011.

[Skill and Chance]

Barker might plausibly come back.  Trouble is, his stronghold (the east) is disproportionately in. 

[Skill and Chance]

McPike narrowly in the lead in SD-29 after a massive PWC election day vote dump.  PWC early votes should decide the outcome.