AOC [doesn’t] posts worst result in NY-14 in 25 years

[GALeftist]

Couple things:

1. No mail in ballots

2. Why are you comparing NY-14 before and after redistricting? Doesn't seem like it's apples to apples, since the district shifted. I'd say the better comparison until 2010 was NY-07. Doesn't really affect your point but I thought it was weird.

[GALeftist]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

Theory: maybe the uniform bounce is because Trump hit the GOP floor among Hispanics in 2016 and not due to some broad cultural shift. Obv unprovable until we go through a few more cycles but I thought it might explain it a little outside of obvious big shifts like the RGV and Miami-Dade.

[GALeftist]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

Theory: maybe the uniform bounce is because Trump hit the GOP floor among Hispanics in 2016 and not due to some broad cultural shift. Obv unprovable until we go through a few more cycles but I thought it might explain it a little outside of obvious big shifts like the RGV and Miami-Dade.

Biden did worse in the RGV than Obama, actually his performance was the weakest for a democrat since Kerry.

Theory: maybe the uniform bounce is because Trump hit the GOP floor among Hispanics in 2016 and not due to some broad cultural shift. Obv unprovable until we go through a few more cycles but I thought it might explain it a little outside of obvious big shifts like the RGV and Miami-Dade.

bruh

[GALeftist]

If it is true that Omar underperformed by more than AOC, which looks likely, might it be the case that Omar's progressivism was not the reason she underperformed? I don't know why, it might be racism, antisemitism concerns, GOP smears, poor campaigning, or anything else, but it seems to me that if progressivism were to blame then one would expect the same underperformance across the board.

[GALeftist]

If it is true that Omar underperformed by more than AOC, which looks likely, might it be the case that Omar's progressivism was not the reason she underperformed? I don't know why, it might be racism, antisemitism concerns, GOP smears, poor campaigning, or anything else, but it seems to me that if progressivism were to blame then one would expect the same underperformance across the board.

You're talking about an 80% Biden district!! lol These people are not right-wingers at all since a bunch voted third party, maybe she's just toxic and too extreme for some people? Idk but to immediately go to racism and bigotry in one of the wokest districts in the country is too good.

1. Woke people are not immune to racism.
2. GOP smears do not work exclusively on GOP voters.
3. I think it's probably likely that her underperformance was a combination of a bunch of this stuff.
4. This misses my point, which is that a bunch of progressive reps not named Ilhan Omar did not underperform by nearly as much, which casts doubt on the whole "toxic and extreme" angle.

[GALeftist]

It is extremely telling that some in this thread are choosing to just attack the OP for posting numbers of how much Omar underperformed Biden in her own CD rather than actually addressing the underperformance.

It's very telling how TopShelfGoal (R-WA) has displayed more vitriol towards the left than he ever did against Trump or any Republican. MacArthur and Alben hate the left too, but at least they come at the right with the same energy. TopShelfGoal (R-WA) literally said he'd support Republican control of the government if it meant the left would be destroyed.

Almost like he's always been a closet Republican all along.

Bernie or busters sunk Hillary in 2016 though by not uniting with the party, that justifies my support for speaker Kevin McCarthy which is totally different and very party uniting