FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio isn't losing when the economy is improving and it's down to 6.6%, now if the economy tanks again, then Rubio is toast

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway one of those 3 will have to run statewide or retire from politics.

Huh? DWS and Demings are still gonna have their safe seats for life after redistricting.

Meant Soto/Demings/Murphy, its a game of musical chairs for those 3, Demings probably survives and I would say so but one of them has to go statewide or just go away or get very lucky and win one of the crack seats.

You think the GOP will try and drop an Orlando seat? I'm not sure how doable that is. To the northeast, they'll try and dismantle Jax. To the northwest, you run into Gainesville. To the southwest, you run into (insufficiently GOP) Lake County and then Tampa. To the east, they'll try and dismantle St. Lucie/Palm Beach. I don't think the R territory exists in Florida for less than 6 Southeast Florida Dem seats, 3 Orlando seats, and 2 Tampa/St. Pete seats. You can crack Crist but then the math isn't there to use SW FL to shore up SE FL.

[Frenchrepublican]

Rubio isn't going to lose, but I doubt he wins by that much.

The FL democrats are already pretty incompetent at turning out their voters in presidential elections but in midterms under a democratic president they’re even worse (look at the 2014 races)

I seen an election that the Democrat lost by one percentage point. How does that square with:

the big question is more if democrats are able to keep their loss in the single digits

?

In 2014 Crist was able too keep things very close in the Gov race but other statewide democrats were trounced. (Crist was helped by the fact that he had a lot of crossover appeal in the Tampa area)

That makes no sense. The Democratic candidates for Ag Commish and CFO in 2014 were both no-name candidates who raised around $40,000, going up against popular incumbents who each easily cleared $4 million. Val Demings, a current member of Congress who would get a ton of financial support for her campaign against Lil Marco, is not at all comparable to Will Rankin or Thad Hamilton.

The point was just to illustrate how incompetent the FL Democratic Party is, if the party had some good infrastructures even a very weak / no name candidate would still get around 45% of the vote, in PA for example where the Democratic Party is much better organised you’re not going to see a democratic statewide candidate losing by double digits.

[Donerail]

That makes no sense. The Democratic candidates for Ag Commish and CFO in 2014 were both no-name candidates who raised around $40,000, going up against popular incumbents who each easily cleared $4 million. Val Demings, a current member of Congress who would get a ton of financial support for her campaign against Lil Marco, is not at all comparable to Will Rankin or Thad Hamilton.

The point was just to illustrate how incompetent the FL Democratic Party is, if the party had some good infrastructures even a very weak / no name candidate would still get around 45% of the vote, in PA for example where the Democratic Party is much better organised you’re not going to see a democratic statewide candidate losing by double digits.

The Pennsylvania Democrats have never nominated a "paper candidate" for statewide office in the last decade, so I'm not sure what evidence you're relying on to make this comparison. How can you be certain that a some dude Democrat in Pennsylvania would clear 45% against a GOP incumbent?

[Horsemask]

I'll join the chorus: likely R, but closer to Safe than lean. This race in a Biden midterm will be very difficult for Democrats.

[UWS]

Biden's team wants Val Demmings to run this race after being impressed with her vetting for VP, reportedly.

Val Deming's isn't beating Rubio, let's be real here. Val Deming's won't offset the losses that Biden substained in South Beach to overcome Rubio's appeal to Latinos

RUBIO 55
Val Demings 45

And she's too far-leftist extreme for Florida. She's been selected by Nancy Pelosi to serve as an impeachment manager in Trump's Senate trial, which will likely hurt her in a state that Trump won by 4 and even by an even larger margin than in 2016.

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden's team wants Val Demmings to run this race after being impressed with her vetting for VP, reportedly.

Val Deming's isn't beating Rubio, let's be real here. Val Deming's won't offset the losses that Biden substained in South Beach to overcome Rubio's appeal to Latinos

RUBIO 55
Val Demings 45

And she's too far-leftist extreme for Florida. She's been selected by Nancy Pelosi to serve as an impeachment manager in Trump's Senate trial, which will likely hurt her in a state that Trump won by 4 and even by an even larger margin than in 2016.

Yeah, it could certainly hurt her in a statewide race, not sure why she accepted because it was bascially a lose / lose situation for her.

[Frenchrepublican]

That makes no sense. The Democratic candidates for Ag Commish and CFO in 2014 were both no-name candidates who raised around $40,000, going up against popular incumbents who each easily cleared $4 million. Val Demings, a current member of Congress who would get a ton of financial support for her campaign against Lil Marco, is not at all comparable to Will Rankin or Thad Hamilton.

The point was just to illustrate how incompetent the FL Democratic Party is, if the party had some good infrastructures even a very weak / no name candidate would still get around 45% of the vote, in PA for example where the Democratic Party is much better organised you’re not going to see a democratic statewide candidate losing by double digits.

The Pennsylvania Democrats have never nominated a "paper candidate" for statewide office in the last decade, so I'm not sure what evidence you're relying on to make this comparison. How can you be certain that a some dude Democrat in Pennsylvania would clear 45% against a GOP incumbent?

PA dem voters are more realiable than FL ones (that's mostly due to the fact that PA has more white liberals than FL) but also because as I said the PA democratic party has a well oiled turnout operation while the FL democratic party is a nutshell : "That issue appears to have continued with the party’s latest report. In one column of the report, Florida Democrats reported holding $741,829 in the bank at the end of August. In another column, the party said it had just $127,044.''
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/368759-florida-democratic-party-struggling-to-account-for-its-operating-money

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Florida Democrats are a joke. Safe R.

[2016]

Pouring over the Data in Florida it has become quite clear that FL-Democrats need someone from the St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay or Central Florida/I-4 Corridor Area if they want to make this Race competitive.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy, Rep. Darren Soto or Rep. Val Demings need to run here.

Makes sense for me now that apparently President-elect Biden is pushing Demings to run.

Not only got Rubio some 43 % in Miami-Dade in 2016, he beat Patrick Murphy in Pinellas & Hillsborough.

If the Democrats run someone from South Florida like Ted Deutch or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz they are going to lose big again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pouring over the Data in Florida it has become quite clear that FL-Democrats need someone from the St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay or Central Florida/I-4 Corridor Area if they want to make this Race competitive.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy, Rep. Darren Soto or Rep. Val Demings need to run here.

Makes sense for me now that apparently President-elect Biden is pushing Demings to run.

Not only got Rubio some 43 % in Miami-Dade in 2016, he beat Patrick Murphy in Pinellas & Hillsborough.

If the Democrats run someone from South Florida like Ted Deutch or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz they are going to lose big again.

I don’t see what the problem is with Deutch?

[Beet]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

[2016]

Pouring over the Data in Florida it has become quite clear that FL-Democrats need someone from the St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay or Central Florida/I-4 Corridor Area if they want to make this Race competitive.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy, Rep. Darren Soto or Rep. Val Demings need to run here.

Makes sense for me now that apparently President-elect Biden is pushing Demings to run.

Not only got Rubio some 43 % in Miami-Dade in 2016, he beat Patrick Murphy in Pinellas & Hillsborough.

If the Democrats run someone from South Florida like Ted Deutch or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz they are going to lose big again.

I don’t see what the problem is with Deutch?

Democrats from South Florida are almost never going to win Statewide. The Reason why Charlie Crist made the 2014 Governor Race against Rick Scott competitive is because overperformed in the St. Pete/Tampa Bay Area.

Democrats need Candidates either from the St. Pete/Tampa/I4-Corridor or from the Northern Part like Gwen Graham.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

[Frenchrepublican]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Also if democrats want to have success with latinos they have to refer to them as latinx, it's much more inclusive, if they do that they are guaranteed to get at least 85% in Miami Dade county.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GA Runoffs are gonna dictate how the D's Southern Strategy works, if D's sweep the GA races, D's are still viable in the South, I wouldn't underestimate D's in FL 2022 Sen or Gov

[Roll Roons]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Also if democrats want to have success with latinos they have to refer to them as latinx, it's much more inclusive, if they do that they are guaranteed to get at least 85% in Miami Dade county.

Yes! By doing that, they'd also be guaranteed to get Texas Panhandle margins with Puerto Ricans in Orlando/Osceola.

[Bootes Void]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Also if democrats want to have success with latinos they have to refer to them as latinx, it's much more inclusive, if they do that they are guaranteed to get at least 85% in Miami Dade county.

Saying latinx is pretty stupid but its no where the main reason why Dems did relatively poorly in Miami Dade

[Beet]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Yes, because they've been doing so well thus far by not nominating Latinos. Of course, as a Republican, you're happy with this situation where only Republicans run people like Marco Rubio, Mel Martinez, Jeanette Nunez, Carlos Giminez, and Maria Elvira Salazar and Democrats keep losing while ignoring the states largest minority group like the plague.

[Frenchrepublican]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Yes, because they've been doing so well thus far by not nominating Latinos. Of course, as a Republican, you're happy with this situation where only Republicans run people like Marco Rubio, Mel Martinez, Jeanette Nunez, Carlos Giminez, and Maria Elvira Salazar and Democrats keep losing while ignoring the states largest minority group like the plague.

Joe Garcia and Mucarsel Powell are obviously not latino ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Also if democrats want to have success with latinos they have to refer to them as latinx, it's much more inclusive, if they do that they are guaranteed to get at least 85% in Miami Dade county.

Saying latinx is pretty stupid but its no where the main reason why Dems did relatively poorly in Miami Dade

Never said that

[cwh2018]

The serious challengers will want to sit 2022 out and take on Scott or the vacant seat in 2024 depending on if Scott were to be the GOP nominee.  Rubio looks like he will be extremely difficult to dislodge, especially in a Biden mid-term the GOP will be motivated.

 Murphy has been regarded by some here and in the media as one of the best potential candidates for the dems as she is from the moderate wing of the party, I assume she would prefer to take on Scott in a presidential year than Rubio in a lower turnout mid-term and would probably only go for 2022 if her district was made unwinnable.  I still think the GOP keep both seats as the dems have won very few races in Florida since 2008 and more moderate candidates don't do drastically better.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd rather FL elect Matt Gaetz than six more years of this manchild.

It takes a lot for me to say but Marco has to be the dumbest member of the Senate who's probably never had a single original thought in his life. On paper, he should he cucked the way Trump cucked him in his own primary. But because it's Florida and the Democratic Party is in the sh!tter here, he and his memorized 30-second speeches are here to stay for at least eight more years.

Oh my no. That honor belongs to Senator Hirono.

Senator Whitehouse said that Bernie is the Wall Street candidate. There's plenty of stupid to go around.

[SenatorCouzens]

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.

Yes, but at least they are saying "Latino" instead or "Latinx." At the rate they are learning, they might win a race in 2032.

(I kid, I kid.)

[Arkansas Yankee]

Rick Scott is far easier to beat.

You are not going to beat him either.