Is Nevada's status as blue state overrated?

[President Johnson]

Nevada is often mentioned in the same lane as Virginia and Colorado. Formerly Republican states that have trended Democratic. Dubya was the last Republican to win these states at the presidential level. However, I think Nevada is not nearly as blue as Virginia and Colorado. It has Democratic lean, but Republican could win here with favorable environment, while the former two are really hard. I could actually see Arizona voting to the left of Nevada in 2024. While I think CCM is favored for 2022, I could actually see her doing worse (if not lose) than Mark Kelly.

Thoughts?

[Nightcore Nationalist]

However, I think Nevada is not nearly as blue as Virginia and Colorado. It has Democratic lean, but Republican could win here with favorable environment, while the former two are really hard.
Thoughts?

I mean, this much should be obvious, but isn't among some here.


It's lean D, and will remain so with modest GOP gains among hispanics and rural wwc.  Whereas CO and VA are borderline safe.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't even know that calling it a Lean D State is fair.  It will probably have an even or maybe even a R+1 PVI when the 2016/2020 Cook PVIs come out.

[Hope For A New Era]

The future of Nevada is uncertain and will be decided when we know whether the 2020 Hispanic R swing was a one-time thing or the beginning of a trend.

[Figueira]

Probably, yeah. It's a Democratic-leaning swing state, kind of like New Hampshire from 2004 to 2016.

I don't even know that calling it a Lean D State is fair.  It will probably have an even or maybe even a R+1 PVI when the 2016/2020 Cook PVIs come out.

The problem with Cook PVI is that it assumes that a tied popular vote is the "default", when we've seen repeatedly that Democrats winning the popular vote is the default. This doesn't mean it will continue into the future, but it doesn't mean it won't either.

[Catalyst138]

It’s kind of like reverse Florida in that the margins are close, but one party is significantly better at winning the state than the other.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's always been lazy to lump it in with Colorado and New Mexico. The state is probably going to trend Republican again (!) in 2020, so it's clearly not going the way of Colorado.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1.
This year Nevada will in all likelihood vote to the right of the nation.

2.
Colorado: Obama+9 - Obama+5 - Clinton+5 - Biden+13
Virginia: Obama+6 - Obama+4 - Clinton+5 - Biden+10
Nevada: Obama+13 - Obama+7 - Clinton+2 - Biden+3

Not even close.

[Chips]

Yeah. I start it out as toss-up in 2024. It's probably the only Clinton 2016 state the GOP has a fair chance of winning in 2024 right now.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yes. All it takes is Washoe.

[TML]

Yes. All it takes is Washoe.

Tell that to Senator Joe Heck.

[Chips]

Yes. All it takes is Washoe.

Tell that to Senator Joe Heck.

The GOP must win Washoe by 3-5 points and come within 8 points of Clark County. That's the GOP path to win the state. It may seem like a longshot but a future GOP candidate who could keep Trump's gains among Hispanics and not get swamped as badly in the urban areas would likely be able to pull it off.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yes. All it takes is Washoe.

Tell that to Senator Joe Heck.

Joe Heck isn't a hypothetical post-Trump GOP presidential candidate.

[Sir Mohamed]

A bit yes, it's sort of a smaller version of FL in the opposite direction: It's leaning to one party, but winnable for the other under the right circumstances. Dems can't take it for granted in either statewide or federal races, but it's not impossible to flip.

[TML]

Yes. All it takes is Washoe.

Tell that to Senator Joe Heck.

Joe Heck isn't a hypothetical post-Trump GOP presidential candidate.

My point is that Heck's 2016 result shows that just winning Washoe alone is not enough guarantee a statewide win.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yes. All it takes is Washoe.

Tell that to Senator Joe Heck.

Joe Heck isn't a hypothetical post-Trump GOP presidential candidate.

My point is that Heck's 2016 result shows that just winning Washoe alone is not enough guarantee a statewide win.

It is when combined with reduced Clark turnout.

[Heisenberg]

I'd say it's the Republican version of North Carolina, for now. Very close state, not much elasticity, but the last 1-2% is the hardest vote for Republicans to get (as it is for Democrats in North Carolina).

[AlterEgo]

1.
This year Nevada will in all likelihood vote to the right of the nation.

2.
Colorado: Obama+9 - Obama+5 - Clinton+5 - Biden+13
Virginia: Obama+6 - Obama+4 - Clinton+5 - Biden+10
Nevada: Obama+13 - Obama+7 - Clinton+2 - Biden+3

Not even close.

As others have mentioned, there are a great amount of similarities between Florida and Nevada. I believe that, if we really dive into things, the two states that experienced the most "anti-lockdown" vote are FL and NV, being as the two of them are heavily reliant on the hospitality/tourism sector in their respective economies. The main difference: NV union, FL non-union. Therefore, there was no Culinary Union to pull those upset hospitality workers back toward Biden in FL like there was in NV.

But...that's also not enough to pull all the upset hospitality workers back. That's why you didn't see NV rebound toward Biden as much as CO and VA. I'd expect things to even out toward D's much more going forward in a non COVID/lockdown environment.

[MT Treasurer]

Definitely, although I expect 2022 to provide more clarity here. Right now it’s the closest thing we have to a popular vote bellwether, but the future of the Democratic coalition is arguably more uncertain here than in NH (which just voted five points to the left of NV, but is still considered more winnable than NV some reason) and the fact that it just voted to the right of the nation says a lot. One thing to keep in mind is that is that Democrats are arguably more reliant on the urban union vote here than in any other state (still not that much of an erosion of D strength with those voters, not just among Latinos, but that could change) and that the state (along with AZ) is increasingly becoming a top destination of migrant Californians.

[Xing]

Yes, I'll admit it, but I think some people are also too quick to assume that it's trending Republican longterm, and often cherry-pick data to prove that point. Republicans could win the Senate race in 2022, but I don't think it's going to be easy, and if they can't keep their recent gains with Latinos, it's going to be extremely hard for them to win it, given that Washoe is slowly shifting Democratic.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

One thing to keep in mind is that is that Democrats are arguably more reliant on the urban union vote here than in any other state (still not that much of an erosion of D strength with those voters, not just among Latinos, but that could change) and that the state (along with AZ) is increasingly becoming a top destination of migrant Californians.

Bingo. NV has blue-shifting suburbs and is having an influx of college educated voters, but it also has really low mean educational attainment for a blue state. The Ds can build up their base with more typical degree-holding voters (like in Colorado) but right now and in recent history the strength has come from the union, which (like it used to in the Rust Belt) funneled non-degree workers into the Democratic tent. With educational polarization pulling non-degree voters (including non-degree Hispanics) towards the Republicans, the union strength is what will keep the state competitive until it gets offset by in-migration of degree-holding voters. If the union collapses, then NV will become more competitive (like the Rust Belt states).

[blacknwhiterose]

Colorado: Obama+9 - Obama+5 - Clinton+5 - Biden+13
Virginia: Obama+6 - Obama+4 - Clinton+5 - Biden+10
Nevada: Obama+13 - Obama+7 - Clinton+2 - Biden+3

New Mexico: Obama +16 - Obama +10 - Clinton +8 -Biden +10

Interesting how Nevada has trended R since '08 while Colorado has gone from the least D of the 3 Obama interior western states to the most D for Biden.  Maybe there's a different profile of Californians and other transplants that are moving to Nevada that are less Democratic.