How many CDs has Biden won?

[Skill and Chance]

Only Biden/Rep district that immediately comes to mind is Nebraska’s 2nd

PA-01 and (almost certainly) NY-24 also do. How many Biden/R districts were there in Texas?

I think just TX-24?  TX-23 looks like it flipped to Trump unless its part of Bexar swung really hard to Biden.

Are we sure Biden didn't flip PA-08?  He did 5% better than Clinton in Lackawanna and Monroe and also improved in the safe Trump NEPA counties.

[Skill and Chance]

IA-02 is Trump/Dem if Hart wins, IA-03 is probably Trump/Dem as well

Biden may have won IA-3. Axne won by a decent amount, it's the most "urban" of the IA districts, and most of the parts of the district that swung towards Trump were very low population. I think IA-3 is prolly very very close, but ye, Trump prolly did win IA-1 and IA-2 again, probably by slightly larger margins than last time.

I'm surprised the open seat was closer than Finkenauer's seat.  What happened there?

[Skill and Chance]

Biden undoubtedly flipped GA-06 and GA-07.  Did he flip VA-07?

[Skill and Chance]

Was the Scranton hometown swing enough for Biden to win PA-08?

[Skill and Chance]

VA-1 is Trump 51/47

Strongly suggests there isn't enough room geographically to draw GOP leaning state legislative maps anymore.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump carried OK-05 by 6.6% (Trump +13.4 in 2016). Stephanie Bice (R) defeated incumbent Kendra Horn (D) by 4.1%.

Other districts:
OK-01: Trump +22.8 (+28.7 in 2016)
OK-02: Trump +53.9 (+50.1 in 2016)
OK-03: Trump +51.4 (+52.7 in 2016)
OK-04: Trump +33.0 (+37.4 in 2016)

Looks like they will be able to gerrymander OKC without worrying about Tulsa then. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328399126493601794

If this is accurate, then Richard Hudson underperformed Trump in NC-08.

Not surprising honestly.  That area has really strong ancestral Dem streak downballot.  This area of NC is surprisingly industrial and experiencing the same trends as eastern OH, northern WI, etc. 

[Skill and Chance]

OK, it seems Trump did win TX-23, but by only 2%. Biden won the Bexar portion by 4.4%, Trump won it by 3 in 2016 IIRC.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1328564452199895040

Hillary won TX-23. Hurd, Katko and Fitz were the only Clinton district Republicans after 2018.

It's wild that TX-23 is now a Romney->Clinton->Trump district.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida

Interesting.  This shows that the Dem coalition in Florida has unpacked geographically even as it has weakened.

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe Rs will draw Soto out instead of Murphy

It would be smarter.

9 being closer than 7 is pretty crazy.

[Skill and Chance]

MI-11: Biden +4.7

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1329796517981351936

That's a flip, right?  But Trump still won MI-08?

[Skill and Chance]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

The wisest thing they could do would be to try to flip GA-02 and instead concede 5 seats in the Atlanta area (4 would need to be black majority CVAP for this to hold up in court).

[Skill and Chance]

Utah:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1331397731752038410

Dems should probably shore up 2 and 5 a bit with the redraw once census numbers out.

They can't.  The CT constitution has a 2/3rds majority requirement to pass maps.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1333260842138284032?s=20

So 11 is the only flip then?

[Skill and Chance]

Biden carried CA-39 by 10 points while Democratic incumbent Gil Cisneros somehow managed to lose reelection to Young Kim.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1334028468619677696

Yikes that's very very embarrassing

Democrats had some seriously weak candidates in CA that were carried over the line by the 2018 wave. 

[Skill and Chance]

The best Biden CDs were:

PA-3   91.3%
CA-13   88.9%
NY-13   88.1%
NY-15   86.4%
IL-7   86.3%

The worst Trump CDs were:

PA-3   8.1%
CA-13   9.0%
NY-13   11.2%
CA-12   11.9%
IL-7   12.1%

If you count DC and a CD, it would be first in both 92.1% - 5.4%.

The best Trump CDs were:

AL-4   81.2%
KY-5   80.2%
TX-13   79.2%
TX-11   79.1%
MO-8    77.3%

The worst Biden CDs were:

AL-4   17.8%
KY-5   18.6%
TX-13   19.4%
TX-11   19.7%
MO-8    21.4%

I think this is a pretty dramatic GOP improvement in NY-15 vs. 2008/12/16?