How many CDs has Biden won?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was 2016:



224-211

My guess is that number roughly flips on it's head

[ProgressiveModerate]

IA-02 is Trump/Dem if Hart wins, IA-03 is probably Trump/Dem as well

Biden may have won IA-3. Axne won by a decent amount, it's the most "urban" of the IA districts, and most of the parts of the district that swung towards Trump were very low population. I think IA-3 is prolly very very close, but ye, Trump prolly did win IA-1 and IA-2 again, probably by slightly larger margins than last time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

IA-02 is Trump/Dem if Hart wins, IA-03 is probably Trump/Dem as well

Biden may have won IA-3. Axne won by a decent amount, it's the most "urban" of the IA districts, and most of the parts of the district that swung towards Trump were very low population. I think IA-3 is prolly very very close, but ye, Trump prolly did win IA-1 and IA-2 again, probably by slightly larger margins than last time.

I'm surprised the open seat was closer than Finkenauer's seat.  What happened there?

IA-1 is basically entirely rural, and as I suspected, higher turnout would cause Trump to continue to make gains in rural IA, since the higher the turnout, the lower the educational attainment is. Many of these people are straight ticket partisans who probably don't even know who Finkenauer was.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump won WI-03 by 4.6%. Congressman Ron Kind (D) won reelection by 2.8%.

Where are you getting this data?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump won WI-03 by 4.6%. Congressman Ron Kind (D) won reelection by 2.8%.

Where are you getting this data?

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1324162971468259334

Thanks

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, I think it's crazy how different the CD map looked just a few years ago with Obama in 2012:



Crazy to see rural IA/WI/MN so blue and districts like GA-6, GA-7, and whole bunch of districts in TX, and other suburban districts safe R. Amazing how much these things can shift in just the course of 4 years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was Obama in 2008 using the current CD lines, crazy to see how much rural areas have shifted towards Rs and suburban areas towards Ds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

FL-26: Trump +5
FL-27: Biden +3

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1323912378472423424

Geez those swing were massive. Hillary won both by close to 20%. High turnout can alter a lot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was Obama in 2008 using the current CD lines, crazy to see how much rural areas have shifted towards Rs and suburban areas towards Ds.

According to data compiled by DailyKos (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections), which I used for my map, Obama carried current TX-23 in 2008.

Huh, my data had McCain winning by about 2%. Some of Daily Kos's TX numbers seem off though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

Oops sorry I meant IA-03, but it still looks like Trump narrowly won it

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328135280222736384

Why do you suppose that is, VAR? (As in why did AR-03 shift comparatively leftwards from 2016?)

Urban-Rural divide. I bet you MO-7 also shifted towards Biden and soon will be less red than MO-6.

[ProgressiveModerate]

OK, it seems Trump did win TX-23, but by only 2%. Biden won the Bexar portion by 4.4%, Trump won it by 3 in 2016 IIRC.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1328564452199895040

Hillary won TX-23. Hurd, Katko and Fitz were the only Clinton district Republicans after 2018.

It's wild that TX-23 is now a Romney->Clinton->Trump district.

It has voted for the loser 4 times in a row now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe Rs will draw Soto out instead of Murphy

It would be smarter.

You overrate how easy it is to cut Orlando from 3 Dem to 2 Dem districts while Florida adds 2 districts overall. It's almost certainly not possible to do without a Jacksonville swing seat. Otherwise, all the surrounding territory which is also compensating for parts of Tampa jut gets too close for comfort.

You could do something like that

A lot of those districts look too close for comfort though, and could easily flip with a small demographic shift or political realignment

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here is a list compiling the results in every CDs

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uPaQL4Izv-7nbreQA7N5NVWAduulCtkyw8qZN7bpjCg/htmlview#gid=0

Thanks!

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1332408409493221378

Ryan is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022, assuming that his district isn't completely dismembered in redistricting.

My guess is Rs will try to crack his district but add a D vote sink in Cincinnati

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1333924438535008257

Pretty crazy to think about how Trump[ was able to double his vote share in certain traditionally one sided Dem areas. Sho9ws how both parties shouldn't take any voters for granted. I suspect if the educational divide becomes bigger and bigger, we'll start to see the GOP make modest gains in cities like NYC. Maybe not enough to make the state competative on the Presidential level, but they could certainly give Ds a run for their money in off years in various statewide races

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX numbers show that the GOP will really have trouble adding to its seats. 2,3,6,10,21,22,23,24,25 and 31 all need tightening. GOP coalition bc of ultra red east and west TX isn't as efficient for them there as in GA.

Democrat's have a natural Geography advantage in TX the same way the GOP has in IL. This should help to offset the gerrymander they come up with a bit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX numbers show that the GOP will really have trouble adding to its seats. 2,3,6,10,21,22,23,24,25 and 31 all need tightening. GOP coalition bc of ultra red east and west TX isn't as efficient for them there as in GA.

Democrat's have a natural Geography advantage in TX the same way the GOP has in IL. This should help to offset the gerrymander they come up with a bit.

It seems that the general pattern is that places with several midsized (relative) Democratic strongholds have a D advantage while places with one center of blue have an R advantage. I guess that is common sense.

Yep pretty much. More 60-40 areas give one a geography advantage while 90-10 is a disadvantage.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5mv4

Does this map seem accurate?