How many CDs has Biden won?

[lfromnj]

Tx 23 might be an anti bellwether district this decade. I'm not sure how the Bexar portion went  though.

[lfromnj]

Trump won WI-03 by 4.6%. Congressman Ron Kind (D) won reelection by 2.8%.

Ouch better than last time.

[lfromnj]

NV 3rd was an Obama Trump district albiet it only trended like 0.2 points R. Pretty Confident Biden won it this year just as he won MN02/NH1 which are 2 very similar districts. However I wonder if Trump won NV 4th,I say no but there is a slight chance there.

[lfromnj]

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20201103/president/

VPAP has really good results for VA

VA01 was Trump +5

VA05 was Trump +7.

[lfromnj]

Was the Scranton hometown swing enough for Biden to win PA-08?

No as the swing was less than 5 points.

[lfromnj]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

Barely the same than Clinton. It's interesting that Macomb swung massively toward Biden while Genese didn't.

Macomb didn't massively swing towards Biden , 3 point swing still solid though.

[lfromnj]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

This seat was drawn as a Dem sink, with the fair redistricting maps, Kildee is done for in 2022, especially given he barely outperformed Biden

Its amazing how many sinks in the Midwest have failed or nearly failed. MI-05, WI-03, ILL-14, etc.

The speed of the urban-rural realignment over the past decade, particularly within the last five years, has been astounding. I cringed somewhat at seeing the vast, encroaching ocean of >70% or >60% Republican rural counties that have now popped up throughout the Midwest, and elsewhere across the country. Yes, "land doesn't vote, people do" but these kinds of sharply polarized geographic voting patterns don't bode well for our country's political stability.

I mean I wouldn't really call MI05 rural

[lfromnj]

Biden lost FL-25 by 22 points. Trump +2 in 2016.

Infact the Collier portion of the district which was the only thing that kept it red in 2016 is now the most blue part of it.

[lfromnj]

Also given the rules in FL, you can't really cut minority seats once they exist, FL has quite strict rules which need to follow, and eliminating an existing minority seat is a no-no

There are no minority seats eliminated in that map. Murphy is not a minority seat

[lfromnj]

Also given the rules in FL, you can't really cut minority seats once they exist, FL has quite strict rules which need to follow, and eliminating an existing minority seat is a no-no

There are no minority seats eliminated in that map. Murphy is not a minority seat

I was referring to the suggestion of cutting Soto instead of Murphy earlier in the thread

Even Soto's isn't really a minority seat, its only 40% hispanic total population although the CVAP effect is probably relatively high due to it being Puerto Ricans.

[lfromnj]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

The wisest thing they could do would be to try to flip GA-02 and instead concede 5 seats in the Atlanta area (4 would need to be black majority CVAP for this to hold up in court).

 5 seats in Atlanta is a fair map lol,why would they not atleast claw back one seat and mountain range it all.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/democraticluntz/status/1335569400364212225?s=21

Trump won the 17th again. The more upscale portions of Peoria and Rockford are actually not in the 17th district which explains why it voted for Trump again despite some decent swings in Rock Island/Peoria/Rockford.

[lfromnj]

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan.

Anyway my point was that people who voted Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

I think that's more like a #populist  thing. DeFazio and Kildee are members of the CPC as well.

I completely agree with the second part of your post, but Biden/A. Harris is much weirder than Trump/Cartwright IMO.

Did Defazio even outperform Biden?