How many CDs has Biden won?

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX numbers show that the GOP will really have trouble adding to its seats. 2,3,6,10,21,22,23,24,25 and 31 all need tightening. GOP coalition bc of ultra red east and west TX isn't as efficient for them there as in GA.

Democrat's have a natural Geography advantage in TX the same way the GOP has in IL. This should help to offset the gerrymander they come up with a bit.

It seems that the general pattern is that places with several midsized (relative) Democratic strongholds have a D advantage while places with one center of blue have an R advantage. I guess that is common sense.

Yep pretty much. More 60-40 areas give one a geography advantage while 90-10 is a disadvantage.

[Roll Roons]

Results in MD:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1336778339508510721

Unsurprisingly, Trump only won MD-01, based on the Eastern Shore, although he did significantly worse there compared to 2016.

Somehow, there were people who split their ticket between Biden and Andy Harris. I get the people who voted Biden and split for Fitzpatrick or Katko, but Andy Harris is a far-right nutjob who loves Orban and refused to denounce QAnon. Someone explain this.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow.  Can the democrats just gerrymander out that one Republican district in Maryland?  Now that SCOTUS says gerrymandering is perfectly ok.  The numbers would seem to work.

[Gass3268]

Wow.  Can the democrats just gerrymander out that one Republican district in Maryland?  Now that SCOTUS says gerrymandering is perfectly ok.  The numbers would seem to work.

Oh yeah totally, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Only threat would be the now Republican/Conservative Maryland State Supreme Court.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Wow.  Can the democrats just gerrymander out that one Republican district in Maryland?  Now that SCOTUS says gerrymandering is perfectly ok.  The numbers would seem to work.

Oh yeah totally, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Only threat would be the now Republican/Conservative Maryland State Supreme Court.

Maryland is like Biden+32 but the Maryland Supreme Court is 4-3 R. Interesting country.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

my rough napkin math has biden winning ny 19 by like 1 pt and ny 18 by like 2 pts

[Frenchrepublican]

Wow.  Can the democrats just gerrymander out that one Republican district in Maryland?  Now that SCOTUS says gerrymandering is perfectly ok.  The numbers would seem to work.

Oh yeah totally, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Only threat would be the now Republican/Conservative Maryland State Supreme Court.

Maryland is like Biden+32 but the Maryland Supreme Court is 4-3 R. Interesting country.

It's not the only example, Virginia Supreme Court has a conservative majority while Kansas and Oklahoma Supreme Courts have a liberal one.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wow.  Can the democrats just gerrymander out that one Republican district in Maryland?  Now that SCOTUS says gerrymandering is perfectly ok.  The numbers would seem to work.

Oh yeah totally, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Only threat would be the now Republican/Conservative Maryland State Supreme Court.

Maryland is like Biden+32 but the Maryland Supreme Court is 4-3 R. Interesting country.

It's not the only example, Virginia Supreme Court has a conservative majority while Kansas and Oklahoma Supreme Courts have a liberal one.

And I believe the Maryland Circuit is split up so that there are fewer judges who represent the more populated, more Democratic regions (though don't quote me on that). 

[Frenchrepublican]

Results in MD:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1336778339508510721

Unsurprisingly, Trump only won MD-01, based on the Eastern Shore, although he did significantly worse there compared to 2016.

Somehow, there were people who split their ticket between Biden and Andy Harris. I get the people who voted Biden and split for Fitzpatrick or Katko, but Andy Harris is a far-right nutjob who loves Orban and refused to denounce QAnon. Someone explain this.

Incumbency bonus + low information voters who vote for the dude they know (same reason why you have Trump/Cartwright voters).

[VAR]

Results in MD:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1336778339508510721
Unsurprisingly, Trump only won MD-01, based on the Eastern Shore, although he did significantly worse there compared to 2016.

Somehow, there were people who split their ticket between Biden and Andy Harris. I get the people who voted Biden and split for Fitzpatrick or Katko, but Andy Harris is a far-right nutjob who loves Orban and refused to denounce QAnon. Someone explain this.

Incumbency bonus + low information voters who vote for the dude they know (same reason why you have Trump/Cartwright voters).

No. Cartwright is a fake moderate who relies on his district's ancestrally D lean and underfunded/underwhelming R opponents to win, but he isn't really offensive and partisan unlike Andy Harris.

[Frenchrepublican]

Results in MD:
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1336778339508510721
Unsurprisingly, Trump only won MD-01, based on the Eastern Shore, although he did significantly worse there compared to 2016.

Somehow, there were people who split their ticket between Biden and Andy Harris. I get the people who voted Biden and split for Fitzpatrick or Katko, but Andy Harris is a far-right nutjob who loves Orban and refused to denounce QAnon. Someone explain this.

Incumbency bonus + low information voters who vote for the dude they know (same reason why you have Trump/Cartwright voters).

No. Cartwright is a fake moderate who relies on his district's ancestrally D lean and underfunded/underwhelming R opponents to win, but he isn't really offensive and partisan unlike Andy Harris.

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan actually.

Anyway my point was that people who vote Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their underfunded opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

[VAR]

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan.

Anyway my point was that people who voted Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

I think that's more like a #populist  thing. DeFazio and Kildee are members of the CPC as well.

I completely agree with the second part of your post, but Biden/A. Harris is much weirder than Trump/Cartwright IMO.

[lfromnj]

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan.

Anyway my point was that people who voted Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

I think that's more like a #populist  thing. DeFazio and Kildee are members of the CPC as well.

I completely agree with the second part of your post, but Biden/A. Harris is much weirder than Trump/Cartwright IMO.

Did Defazio even outperform Biden?

[VAR]

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan.

Anyway my point was that people who voted Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

I think that's more like a #populist  thing. DeFazio and Kildee are members of the CPC as well.

I completely agree with the second part of your post, but Biden/A. Harris is much weirder than Trump/Cartwright IMO.

Did Defazio even outperform Biden?

He did, but by only 1%.

[Frenchrepublican]

Cartwright is a member of the CPC so he is pretty partisan.

Anyway my point was that people who voted Biden/Harris or Trump/Cartwright are generally low info voters who vote for the incumbent simply because they have never heard of their opponent, you can say the same about people who voted Brown/Jordan in 2018 or people who voted Trump/Durbin, these persons are not very logical nor ideological.

I think that's more like a #populist   thing. DeFazio and Kildee are members of the CPC as well.

I completely agree with the second part of your post, but Biden/A. Harris is much weirder than Trump/Cartwright IMO.

It's weird only if you assume that every American voter is logical and rational, now if you understand that around one fifth of the US electorate has absolutely no ideology/true political opinions, and is basing his vote on personal habits/family traditions, incumbency, the look/name of the candidates it's not that weird.

[RINO Tom]

Also, I think it's crazy how different the CD map looked just a few years ago with Obama in 2012:



Crazy to see rural IA/WI/MN so blue and districts like GA-6, GA-7, and whole bunch of districts in TX, and other suburban districts safe R. Amazing how much these things can shift in just the course of 4 years.

Yet very few on this site entertain an election 12-16 years in the future consisting of different trends, coalitions or environments than what we currently see...

[Frenchrepublican]

Also, I think it's crazy how different the CD map looked just a few years ago with Obama in 2012:



Crazy to see rural IA/WI/MN so blue and districts like GA-6, GA-7, and whole bunch of districts in TX, and other suburban districts safe R. Amazing how much these things can shift in just the course of 4 years.

Yet very few on this site entertain an election 12-16 years in the future consisting of different trends, coalitions or environments than what we currently see...

Now to be honest the was majority of the districts which were safe for the X party in 2012 are still safe X today, and most Romney 2012 voters backed Trump as most Obama 2012 voters voted Biden

[MoreThanPolitics]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

[Roll Roons]

Scott Perry outperforming Trump is another one that doesn't make much sense. Isn't he a Freedom Caucus guy?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5mv4

Does this map seem accurate?

[Roll Roons]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5mv4

Does this map seem accurate?

MI-08 narrowly went for Trump, and I think it's possible that NY-02 narrowly went for Biden. Other than that, yes.

[compucomp]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

I'm honestly surprised by Lamb, he went from the Democratic wonder boy who won a Trump +20 SWPA district to this. That district was as Trumpy as it gets and no Democrat had any business winning it, special election or not. This doesn't bode well for his chances of winning statewide office. I don't know if he suffered some kind of carpetbagging penalty for moving from his old district to the new PA-17 or if he's lost the touch he originally had and is now a generic Democrat.

Maybe it's just harder for these red-district Democrats when they're in the House majority since then they have to actually vote on the liberal (and unpopular in their district) stuff the Democrats put forward rather than just opposing the unpopular stuff the Republicans put forward when they were in the majority.

[Calthrina950]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

I'm honestly surprised by Lamb, he went from the Democratic wonder boy who won a Trump +20 SWPA district to this. That district was as Trumpy as it gets and no Democrat had any business winning it, special election or not. This doesn't bode well for his chances of winning statewide office. I don't know if he suffered some kind of carpetbagging penalty for moving from his old district to the new PA-17 or if he's lost the touch he originally had and is now a generic Democrat.

Maybe it's just harder for these red-district Democrats when they're in the House majority since then they have to actually vote on the liberal (and unpopular in their district) stuff the Democrats put forward rather than just opposing the unpopular stuff the Republicans put forward when they were in the majority.

I'm not sure either, and Lamb is a protégé of Biden's. But I think it is obvious that Lamb will be a target for Republicans at the congressional level in 2022, and I certainly don't think he's the strongest candidate Democrats could run for Senate or for Governor. But we'll have to see how things develop.

[GALeftist]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

I'm honestly surprised by Lamb, he went from the Democratic wonder boy who won a Trump +20 SWPA district to this. That district was as Trumpy as it gets and no Democrat had any business winning it, special election or not. This doesn't bode well for his chances of winning statewide office. I don't know if he suffered some kind of carpetbagging penalty for moving from his old district to the new PA-17 or if he's lost the touch he originally had and is now a generic Democrat.

Maybe it's just harder for these red-district Democrats when they're in the House majority since then they have to actually vote on the liberal (and unpopular in their district) stuff the Democrats put forward rather than just opposing the unpopular stuff the Republicans put forward when they were in the majority.

I'm not sure either, and Lamb is a protégé of Biden's. But I think it is obvious that Lamb will be a target for Republicans at the congressional level in 2022, and I certainly don't think he's the strongest candidate Democrats could run for Senate or for Governor. But we'll have to see how things develop.

and nothing of value was lost