How well did Biden and Trump do in counties with a military presence?

[BaldEagle1991]

Any data on how Biden and Trump did well in military towns/cities?

I'm kind of wondering if the "The dead soldiers are losers and suckers" story might have hurt Trump in these areas?

[Alben Barkley]

There appear to have been significant swings towards Dems in most counties/cities heavily dominated by a military presence, with Biden winning some outright such as Virginia Beach.

Moreover, the military vote coming in from overseas actually seems to have favored Biden in some/most cases (though I’m not sure how much of that is mixed in with other overseas ballots and what the ratio is so hard to say for sure).

In any case, pretty clear that at the very least Trump took a massive hit with the military, and may have even lost their vote outright. If so, pretty sure he’d be the first Republican in ages to do so.

[BaldEagle1991]

There appear to have been significant swings towards Dems in most counties/cities heavily dominated by a military presence, with Biden winning some outright such as Virginia Beach.

Moreover, the military vote coming in from overseas actually seems to have favored Biden in some/most cases (though I’m not sure how much of that is mixed in with other overseas ballots and what the ratio is so hard to say for sure).

In any case, pretty clear that at the very least Trump took a massive hit with the military, and may have even lost their vote outright. If so, pretty sure he’d be the first Republican in ages to do so.

I'm guessing that Atlantic bombshell story pretty much hurt him among this demographic. I know people who are in the military and had served, my anecdotal evidence from them is they weren't happy with that. I'm guessing that was a huge sentiment among the military crowd.

[cg41386]

Biden won Virginia Beach and also won neighboring Chesapeake with a fairly decent margin (it had pretty much always been a razor thin margin in previous cycles).

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Bernie Sanders led in military donations among all candidates so it's no surprise they turned hard to Biden.

I think the number one reason is that many members of the military now join for economic reasons. They see the crushing piles of education and health debts and realize putting on camo shouldn't be a requirement for getting basic things like that, especially in lower income communities where the opportunities are so limited. It's a socialist jobs and welfare program, and most people are just decent people working like any other type of job.

There are still the mouth breather/ libertarian type with the "I got mine, fook everyone else" perspective, like the barely-literate cartoon character from my high school who went to the Naval Academy (and another expensive university, costing the taxpayers probably $500,000+ right off the bat) and has been posting for the last week on Facebook about how the election was stolen, but I think that's a lower percentage than it used to be.

I don't think Trump's comments had a major effect to that degree, although a few people might have been swayed.

[Roll Roons]

It wasn't just Virginia Beach that swung D.

Escambia, FL: 5 points left
El Paso, CO: 11 points left
Cumberland, NC: At least 1 point left, with a significant amount of outstanding vote
Bell, TX: 6 points left
St. Clair, IL: 3 points left
Montgomery, OH: 3 points left with absentees uncounted
San Diego, CA: 3 points left

All of these are noticeable, but Colorado Springs really stands out. I do wonder why Colorado trended so hard to the left this year.

[NOVA Green]

So here is a thread which I created about the Vet / Military Votes in the 2016 GE PRES Election.

Not complete, not comprehensive, and not precinct based, but still worthy of consideration when it comes the Military / Vet Vote.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268535.msg5737497#msg5737497

[Alben Barkley]

Bernie Sanders led in military donations among all candidates so it's no surprise they turned hard to Biden.

I think the number one reason is that many members of the military now join for economic reasons. They see the crushing piles of education and health debts and realize putting on camo shouldn't be a requirement for getting basic things like that, especially in lower income communities where the opportunities are so limited. It's a socialist jobs and welfare program, and most people are just decent people working like any other type of job.

There are still the mouth breather/ libertarian type with the "I got mine, fook everyone else" perspective, like the barely-literate cartoon character from my high school who went to the Naval Academy (and another expensive university, costing the taxpayers probably $500,000+ right off the bat) and has been posting for the last week on Facebook about how the election was stolen, but I think that's a lower percentage than it used to be.

I don't think Trump's comments had a major effect to that degree, although a few people might have been swayed.

Bernie led in donations across lots of groups. Remember that map that showed like every county in America, he got the most donations?

Turns out it didn't really mean anything when it comes to votes, though.

I'm PRETTY sure given how conservative the ethos of the military generally is, and how many decades on end it's consistently voted Republican, that if Trump lost it, probably had a lot more to do with how blatantly disrespectful the man has been to them for years than that the military suddenly became socialist in four years.

Now I'm not talking about JUST the "suckers and losers" comments, but also the McCain/POW comments before them, Trump's own history of very ignoble non-service, and that's not to mention that if I was putting my life on my line for my country, I wouldn't want my Commander-in-Chief to be as erratic, unstable, and petty as Donald Trump. Seems like it may have finally reached a breaking point.

But I'm not convinced that if the Democratic nominee wasn't someone the military already knew and trusted would be fairly moderate and reasonable and prudent in his foreign policy, they would have done the same. Bernie's also called for massive cuts to military spending, which I don't think would have gone over well with them, even those who do join primarily for economic reasons.

[Alben Barkley]

Oh and by the way this doesn't even get into the whole "Russian bounties" thing.

I HIGHLY DOUBT I would vote for a Commander-in-Chief who even slightly had the chance of being OK with a foreign adversary literally paying to have me killed if it was me.

Frankly, at this point, the military voters who DID vote for Trump will have more to answer for than those who didn't.

But since it's increasingly looking like the military as a whole voted against him, seems like that Military Times poll will stand alongside the Selzer poll as among the most accurate of the election.

I KNOW FDR won the military vote back during WW2 (he WAS the widely admired Commander-in-Chief after all) but I'm not sure if there has EVER been a time since then until now when a Republican lost, let alone one who was the current Commander-in-Chief! Just goes to show how little faith our troops had in this a-hole. With damn good cause.

Also, if it is indeed true that the military voted for Biden but cops voted for Trump, that's probably also the biggest discrepancy in our history between the votes of those two groups.

[BaldEagle1991]

It wasn't just Virginia Beach that swung D.

Escambia, FL: 5 points left
El Paso, CO: 11 points left
Cumberland, NC: At least 1 point left, with a significant amount of outstanding vote
Bell, TX: 6 points left
St. Clair, IL: 3 points left
Montgomery, OH: 3 points left with absentees uncounted
San Diego, CA: 3 points left

All of these are noticeable, but Colorado Springs really stands out. I do wonder why Colorado trended so hard to the left this year.

Curious into Colorado Springs...it might be just Colorado in general swinging to Biden?

Bell County TX might have swung to Biden in part into how Trump may have neglected the recent murders there perhaps?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It wasn't just Virginia Beach that swung D.

Escambia, FL: 5 points left
El Paso, CO: 11 points left
Cumberland, NC: At least 1 point left, with a significant amount of outstanding vote
Bell, TX: 6 points left
St. Clair, IL: 3 points left
Montgomery, OH: 3 points left with absentees uncounted
San Diego, CA: 3 points left

All of these are noticeable, but Colorado Springs really stands out. I do wonder why Colorado trended so hard to the left this year.

Regarding Colorado, a couple of thoughts come to mind:

1. Continuing migration of Californians to Colorado.

2. This might be far-fetched, but what about legal marijuana acting as an attractor/sorter for migration?  Young and more liberal people looking to relocate might consider it as a plus, while more conservative people might be turned off by it.  Certainly not something I'd expect to be decisive, but it could be a small factor.

I'd be interested to hear what some of our Colorado folks think about this.

EDIT: I asked a professional colleague in Colorado (Loveland) why he thought the state swung so much to the left.  He answered with one word: marijuana.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Bernie Sanders led in military donations among all candidates so it's no surprise they turned hard to Biden.

I think the number one reason is that many members of the military now join for economic reasons. They see the crushing piles of education and health debts and realize putting on camo shouldn't be a requirement for getting basic things like that, especially in lower income communities where the opportunities are so limited. It's a socialist jobs and welfare program, and most people are just decent people working like any other type of job.

There are still the mouth breather/ libertarian type with the "I got mine, fook everyone else" perspective, like the barely-literate cartoon character from my high school who went to the Naval Academy (and another expensive university, costing the taxpayers probably $500,000+ right off the bat) and has been posting for the last week on Facebook about how the election was stolen, but I think that's a lower percentage than it used to be.

I don't think Trump's comments had a major effect to that degree, although a few people might have been swayed.

Bernie led in donations across lots of groups. Remember that map that showed like every county in America, he got the most donations?

Turns out it didn't really mean anything when it comes to votes, though.

I'm PRETTY sure given how conservative the ethos of the military generally is, and how many decades on end it's consistently voted Republican, that if Trump lost it, probably had a lot more to do with how blatantly disrespectful the man has been to them for years than that the military suddenly became socialist in four years.

Now I'm not talking about JUST the "suckers and losers" comments, but also the McCain/POW comments before them, Trump's own history of very ignoble non-service, and that's not to mention that if I was putting my life on my line for my country, I wouldn't want my Commander-in-Chief to be as erratic, unstable, and petty as Donald Trump. Seems like it may have finally reached a breaking point.

But I'm not convinced that if the Democratic nominee wasn't someone the military already knew and trusted would be fairly moderate and reasonable and prudent in his foreign policy, they would have done the same. Bernie's also called for massive cuts to military spending, which I don't think would have gone over well with them, even those who do join primarily for economic reasons.

I know a ton of people in the military who agree with cuts to military spending. Do you really think the average person cares about building yet another pointless carrier or another round of trillion dollar jet programs to benefit some congressman's home district? The only thing they care about is VA benefits and improving old facilities/housing on bases, both of which could be easily funded by cutting all the unneeded crap.

[Hope For A New Era]

The huge swing in El Paso, CO is a combination of military and also slow-realigning Colorado Springs.

[One Term Floridian]

Oh and by the way this doesn't even get into the whole "Russian bounties" thing.

I HIGHLY DOUBT I would vote for a Commander-in-Chief who even slightly had the chance of being OK with a foreign adversary literally paying to have me killed if it was me.

Frankly, at this point, the military voters who DID vote for Trump will have more to answer for than those who didn't.

But since it's increasingly looking like the military as a whole voted against him, seems like that Military Times poll will stand alongside the Selzer poll as among the most accurate of the election.

I KNOW FDR won the military vote back during WW2 (he WAS the widely admired Commander-in-Chief after all) but I'm not sure if there has EVER been a time since then until now when a Republican lost, let alone one who was the current Commander-in-Chief! Just goes to show how little faith our troops had in this a-hole. With damn good cause.

Also, if it is indeed true that the military voted for Biden but cops voted for Trump, that's probably also the biggest discrepancy in our history between the votes of those two groups.

I’m guessing LBJ won the military vote both due to his overall landslide and Goldwater’s perceived extremism in military matters

[DINGO Joe]

Colorado Springs is a nice place, far too nice to be voting for Trump so that's probably part of it. 

Houston, GA had the biggest swing towards Biden outside of the Atlanta metro and it has a substantial military presence.

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado Springs is a nice place, far too nice to be voting for Trump so that's probably part of it. 

Houston, GA had the biggest swing towards Biden outside of the Atlanta metro and it has a substantial military presence.

?
Colorado Springs is literally the heart of the Colorado GOP.
Plus the county did vote for Trump in the end.

Anyways as a Coloradan, the reasons are twofold. First young people have moved here (I don’t think weed is a big factor, many are moving to Utah and Idaho as well) and secondly the area isn’t exactly Trumpy, it’s more evangelical/military. The type of place I would expect George Bush to feel home in.

[lfromnj]

You can't even buy weed in most of El pass county. Some one small liberal resort town

[BaldEagle1991]

The huge swing in El Paso, CO is a combination of military and also slow-realigning Colorado Springs.

Don’t forget that’s where the Olympians train.

[Hope For A New Era]

The huge swing in El Paso, CO is a combination of military and also slow-realigning Colorado Springs.

Don’t forget that’s where the Olympians train.

How does that affect anything?

[BaldEagle1991]

The huge swing in El Paso, CO is a combination of military and also slow-realigning Colorado Springs.

Don’t forget that’s where the Olympians train.

How does that affect anything?

That’s a huge factor in CO Springs a bit.

[BaldEagle1991]

It wasn't just Virginia Beach that swung D.

Escambia, FL: 5 points left
El Paso, CO: 11 points left
Cumberland, NC: At least 1 point left, with a significant amount of outstanding vote
Bell, TX: 6 points left
St. Clair, IL: 3 points left
Montgomery, OH: 3 points left with absentees uncounted
San Diego, CA: 3 points left

All of these are noticeable, but Colorado Springs really stands out. I do wonder why Colorado trended so hard to the left this year.

Regarding Colorado, a couple of thoughts come to mind:

1. Continuing migration of Californians to Colorado.

2. This might be far-fetched, but what about legal marijuana acting as an attractor/sorter for migration?  Young and more liberal people looking to relocate might consider it as a plus, while more conservative people might be turned off by it.  Certainly not something I'd expect to be decisive, but it could be a small factor.

I'd be interested to hear what some of our Colorado folks think about this.

EDIT: I asked a professional colleague in Colorado (Loveland) why he thought the state swung so much to the left.  He answered with one word: marijuana.

Yeah weed will keep Colorado blue like Evangelicals will keep Alabama red.