Why did Biden overperform Eastman in NE-02 so much?

[AGA]

Eastman is a progressive who supports Medicare for All. She lost her house race by 6 points while Biden won NE-02 by 7. Why?

[Bojack Horseman]

Option #1. 2020 proved that Americans like Trumpism but not Trump. All the GOP has to do is find someone to run on the same policies and racism as Trump but say it coherently, the racism more subtly, and with a smile and they’ll be fine. Trump’s tweets and behavior is what cost him a second term.

[Alben Barkley]

Option #1. 2020 proved that Americans like Trumpism but not Trump. All the GOP has to do is find someone to run on the same policies and racism as Trump but say it coherently, the racism more subtly, and with a smile and they’ll be fine. Trump’s tweets and behavior is what cost him a second term.

I'm not sure about that. Trump kinda IS Trumpism, at least in the popular imagination; maybe people (however naively) hoped that with him gone, the rest of the GOP would snap back to reality. Plus, Eastman was an EXCEPTIONALLY left-wing candidate whose Republican opponent was endorsed by her primary opponent. A more centrist Dem probably could have won the district.

Also you have to question why 2018 was so different if people have no problem at all with the ideology Trump's GOP represents. I think it's a combination of what I said (some people hoping things would change with Trump gone, possibly that a GOP Congress would be a "check" on the left too) and just the fact that rural WWC voters who didn't show up in 2018 did for Trump.

[DaleCooper]

Kara Eastman ran as a Justice Democrat in 2018 and that doesn't work in these kinds of districts. It's nothing personal; in fact, I actually think that if Eastman herself had run a similar campaign to someone like Porter back in 2018 then she would've went into 2020 as an incumbent and likely would've won, though probably still underperforming Biden's margin by three or four points.

I really do think it's that simple. The Justice Dem playbook just doesn't work here and that's what she branded herself as a couple years ago and its hard to pivot away from that. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Write-in: Brad Ashford.

[Badger]

Write-in: Brad Ashford.

Yes, f*** him. But remember his opposition is as much centered around Eastman being a Justice Democrat as it is him being salty over his losing the primary 2 years ago to Eastman and then his wife this year.

If Eastman wasn't vulnerable on that point in this District, Ashford's endorsement would have had little influence.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He over-performed just about every down-ballot Democrat.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Eastman ran with a California platform in Nebraska.

[TopShelfGoal]

Eastman should never have been nominated in that district. Bacon is a popular incumbent and would likely have been hard unseat no matter what but there is absolutely no reason the Democratic congressional candidate should be trailing the top of the ticket by 11.5+ points. They need an Abigail Spanberger or Joe Kennedy type Democrat in that district, not a Justice D wannabe.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Eastman should never have been nominated in that district. Bacon is a popular incumbent and would likely have been hard unseat no matter what but there is absolutely no reason the Democratic congressional candidate should be trailing the top of the ticket by 11.5+ points. They need an Abigail Spanberger or Joe Kennedy type Democrat in that district, not a Justice D wannabe.

Joe Kennedy could change, but strikes me as someone who (outside of MA) is progressive in most the ways that lose votes and fewer of the ways that count in the legislative process. Performative, willing to be very online (he bases a fair chunk of his campaign off how others interacted with his campaign online) and apparently less able to tap into populism.

[Bojack Horseman]

Option #1. 2020 proved that Americans like Trumpism but not Trump. All the GOP has to do is find someone to run on the same policies and racism as Trump but say it coherently, the racism more subtly, and with a smile and they’ll be fine. Trump’s tweets and behavior is what cost him a second term.

I'm not sure about that. Trump kinda IS Trumpism, at least in the popular imagination; maybe people (however naively) hoped that with him gone, the rest of the GOP would snap back to reality. Plus, Eastman was an EXCEPTIONALLY left-wing candidate whose Republican opponent was endorsed by her primary opponent. A more centrist Dem probably could have won the district.

Also you have to question why 2018 was so different if people have no problem at all with the ideology Trump's GOP represents. I think it's a combination of what I said (some people hoping things would change with Trump gone, possibly that a GOP Congress would be a "check" on the left too) and just the fact that rural WWC voters who didn't show up in 2018 did for Trump.

Nah I feel like if someone like Josh Hawley or Rick Scott went out and campaigned on 1920s protectionism, shutting down immigration, and Trump’s economic policies without calling African countries sh**tholes and Mexicans rapists and spoke in complete sentences he would win easily.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Option #1. 2020 proved that Americans like Trumpism but not Trump. All the GOP has to do is find someone to run on the same policies and racism as Trump but say it coherently, the racism more subtly, and with a smile and they’ll be fine. Trump’s tweets and behavior is what cost him a second term.

I'm not sure about that. Trump kinda IS Trumpism, at least in the popular imagination; maybe people (however naively) hoped that with him gone, the rest of the GOP would snap back to reality. Plus, Eastman was an EXCEPTIONALLY left-wing candidate whose Republican opponent was endorsed by her primary opponent. A more centrist Dem probably could have won the district.

Also you have to question why 2018 was so different if people have no problem at all with the ideology Trump's GOP represents. I think it's a combination of what I said (some people hoping things would change with Trump gone, possibly that a GOP Congress would be a "check" on the left too) and just the fact that rural WWC voters who didn't show up in 2018 did for Trump.

Nah I feel like if someone like Josh Hawley or Rick Scott went out and campaigned on 1920s protectionism, shutting down immigration, and Trump’s economic policies without calling African countries sh**tholes and Mexicans rapists and spoke in complete sentences he would win easily.

I'm not so sure about that. Personality matters a lot to Republicans and Trump's personality is so distinct and larger-than-life that I don't know if anyone else could have done what he did. That's the main reason why he so handily won the 2016 primary. It's possible that other Republican politicians can, but I'm not certain. In some sense he almost reminds of the GOP's equivalent to Obama (it sounds like sacrilege to compare the two, I know.). This is the big question for the GOP going forward-how to remain Trumpian without the main himself.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is pretty easy for all but the Bernie Bros to understand.  Most Americans, particularly in swing areas don't like socialism or far left ideology. 

[Roronoa D. Law]

1. Eastman being further left than most voters in the district
2. Bacon personal brand and support among local leaders (including Ashford (R))
3. Spit ticket voting from the idea that the Democrats would win in a landslide.