AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[President Johnson]

I guess he also has a leftover on his campaign's bank account from 2020, when he was already raising insane amounts of money? While it's a good sign for energy on the ground, it doesn't mean Kelly is a shoe in for reelection. But given his solid approval ratings, the state's general trend and the direction as well as candidate bench of the Arizona Republican Party, Kelly should be favored for getting a full term. Lean Democratic for now.

[President Johnson]

Ducey would have been a strong candidate in 2020, but 2022 is likely a different story. He may not even win the primary if Trump goes against him and in the general he could struggle with Republican turnout for simply confirming Joe Biden's presidential win. He won't get support from Democrats and leaners either.

[President Johnson]

Random thought: this race is clearly Lean D, if not Likely, now... but had John McCain not got cancer, would he have been favoured in this election? I feel like he would have.

He would have been DOA in a GOP primary.

Absolutely, and probably not even run for reelection again. There's also little doubt in my mind McCain would have voted to convict Trump in both impeachments. The first would be have been kind of ironic, with both Republican opponents of Obama voting to remove Trump from office as the only members of their party.

[President Johnson]

OK now I'm convinced he's running because he wants to be famous and for no other reason. This is ridiculous

Seems like this the primarily intention of several Republican candidates, including Oz, Vance and Walker. I'm not reading anything on substantive issues what they want to accomplish for the greater good. Republicans in 2022 haven't much to offer other than fighting culture wars and self-pity over the 2020 election.