AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Torie]

538 polling average page is up

right now it's Kelly +8.6

Kelly 50%
Masters 41.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/

Kelly hitting magic 50 already.

Masters strikes me as really weird, and hyper intense, ala a high up Scientologist predatory freak. I suspect this seat is probably a write-off for the Pubs. Trump is the Dems best friend.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1555202747108102145?t=ssuabkVJ7uAC9pro3B2F...

Overall that's def a good ad that presents himself in a friendlier way without potentially pissing off MAGAs. However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

Yeah, this first batch of ads from Oz, Vance, Masters, etc. are good... for the spring. At this point in the campaign they're already woefully behind and need to pull out the big guns.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1555202747108102145?t=ssuabkVJ7uAC9pro3B2F...

Overall that's def a good ad that presents himself in a friendlier way without potentially pissing off MAGAs. However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

Yeah, this first batch of ads from Oz, Vance, Masters, etc. are good... for the spring. At this point in the campaign they're already woefully behind and need to pull out the big guns.

I thought Oz’s recent ad was pretty bad cause he filmed it like he’s a sexy bad ass runner except he’s an old dude with moobs.

Vance has catching up to do cause rn the optics are not on his side, so running solid ads are important for making him more like able to your average per son.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is not catching up with the gender Gap and minority gap there are Arabs, Blks and Females, Trump has a gender Gap that went back up to 55 percent for D's in 2016 it only was tied in 2020 because Hillary had Lewinsky and BENGHAZI, Biden opened up the gender Gap and DeWine will get 6 percent of Blk vote while Vance will get 2 percent, Ryan is better candidate and Nan Whaley isn't a good candidate, just like Franken is a better.candid whom is 8 pts down than DeJear whom is 15 pts back, is a bad candidate but Reynolds takes away the gender Gap too

Bush W with Laura Bush took away the gender Gap it was tied as well but when Obama ran it went back up to 55 percent, D's win when it's 55 percent, we lose when it is tied, plain and simple

Bill Clinton and Obama and Biden reopen the Gender gap, that's why Beasley is kneck and kneck with Budd gender Gap John Bolton and Survey USA has Beasley up 43/40 and it's 20 percent Blk in NC

[Ferguson97]

However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

Yeah, that's why it's a good ad. When you're a fascist like Masters, presenting yourself as a "generic Republican" is the best strategy, especially when running against a strong candidate like Mark Kelly.

The less Masters opens his mouth, the better his chances, and he seems disciplined enough to know when to shut up.

[wbrocks67]

However, that ad doesn't really say anything about where he stands on a lot of important issues and that's what he's going to need to figure out how to present, especially since a lot of his stances are not in line with the median AZ voter.

Yeah, that's why it's a good ad. When you're a fascist like Masters, presenting yourself as a "generic Republican" is the best strategy, especially when running against a strong candidate like Mark Kelly.

The less Masters opens his mouth, the better his chances, and he seems disciplined enough to know when to shut up.

The problem for these candidates though is that you can't just act like voters have not seen your previous ads that you ran during the primary or have not heard about you until now. Sure, there will be people who are fresh eyes who are tuning in now. But people are more in tune than ever before, so to me it's almost treating voters like their idiots when you completely change up your messaging so blatantly to fit a different audience now.

[wbrocks67]

and the Social Security comments have now officially come back to haunt Masters

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1559511497121865728

[ProgressiveModerate]

An important thing to consider:

While yes, in 2020-Sen, there was a time when Kelly's average was up by double digits in polling, by ED it had narrowed to about Kelly + 5 on average which wasn't all that far off. I suspect we'll see the same thing here where polarization ultimately causes polling to narrow in the final few weeks. How much is really what matters though.

[Real Texan Politics]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AZ right now is a hard Lean D, verging on Likely if one month from now the picture doesn't improve for Masters or gets worse.
I wonder what the D ceiling in AZ is...

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.

Also, is an 80% chance of victory really "likely"? I feel like the likely threshold needs to be raised to something more like 85%.

But I agree, DDHQ model seems to take polls way too literally which pushes a lot of competitive Senate seats hard left past fundamentals that are keeping the House very R.

I think one thing that makes this challenging to analyze is Mark Kelly very recently had a race where polling far out reguarly had him up 10 points, only to close to like 4 by ED and for him to only win by a little over 2%. I think what many saw as a closer than expected calls is scaring folks a bit about 2022. However, if you input all the existing data we have into any sane model, it'd output Kelly as a clear favorite (Usual Swing State, Incumbent who overperformed top of ticket, Kelly has money advantage, the polling average is Kelly + 10, ect) even though most of us as humans have a belief and I'd argue a justified belief that the race will be a lot closer than these data points would project.

Personally, I tend to like the 538 model better; in 2020 they still gave McSally a 20%+ chance throughout even as many other models had completely written her off. 538's current project of 70% Kelly seems a bit more reasonable than most other models at this point. JHK's forecast for Senate and House seem pretty good at dealing with lopsided polling averages.

My main worry for Kelly and frankly AZ Dems is usually Hispanic turnout is dreadful in midterms and it'd take quite a lot of investment to change that. Sinema had to do universally better than Kelly with whites to win by the exact same margin.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.

Also, is an 80% chance of victory really "likely"? I feel like the likely threshold needs to be raised to something more like 85%.

But I agree, DDHQ model seems to take polls way too literally which pushes a lot of competitive Senate seats hard left past fundamentals that are keeping the House very R.

I think one thing that makes this challenging to analyze is Mark Kelly very recently had a race where polling far out reguarly had him up 10 points, only to close to like 4 by ED and for him to only win by a little over 2%. I think what many saw as a closer than expected calls is scaring folks a bit about 2022. However, if you input all the existing data we have into any sane model, it'd output Kelly as a clear favorite (Usual Swing State, Incumbent who overperformed top of ticket, Kelly has money advantage, the polling average is Kelly + 10, ect) even though most of us as humans have a belief and I'd argue a justified belief that the race will be a lot closer than these data points would project.

Personally, I tend to like the 538 model better; in 2020 they still gave McSally a 20%+ chance throughout even as many other models had completely written her off. 538's current project of 70% Kelly seems a bit more reasonable than most other models at this point. JHK's forecast for Senate and House seem pretty good at dealing with lopsided polling averages.

My main worry for Kelly and frankly AZ Dems is usually Hispanic turnout is dreadful in midterms and it'd take quite a lot of investment to change that. Sinema had to do universally better than Kelly with whites to win by the exact same margin.

Isn't Kelly still winning in LV polls.

[Brittain33]

How can anyone look at the last several Arizona elections and Kelly's advantages over Masters and rate this anything but Lean D? Likely D in Arizona does not exist.

[Spectator]

How can anyone look at the last several Arizona elections and Kelly's advantages over Masters and rate this anything but Lean D? Likely D in Arizona does not exist.

Joe Arpaio or one of his acolytes have proven that Republicans can get destroyed in Maricopa County, but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ's rating boundaries are strange.  Not only is the boundary between Lean and Likely at 80% too low, the boundary between Lean and Tossup at 65% is too high.  This results in them rating races as Likely or Tossup that most of us would consider Lean (like this one).

https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/methodology

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approvals are tracking similar to 2020 47/52 v 50/45 so it's a 303 but you never know what wave insurance map our red state D's are overperformed our red state Gov candidates

Even when Biden was at its lowest QU had him at 33/61 Approvals in Rassy he was at 41% not 33%

Gov elections are over we win WI, PA, MI, MD, MA, NV and AZ we don't know about GA yet, and we lose KS

But, Sen red state candidate are competetive , we have to watch OH because Brown and DeWine won in 2018 and NC because Cunningham lost by a small margin than Biden and FL Demings is up 48/44,

But users thinking Kelly and Barnes are gonna lose its wrong they win in a Neutral Environment

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, Arizona will not be Likely D. Anyone who thinks that will be coping hard on election night.
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1561865805897293825?s=21&t=ekzr3ZO...

I've learned the hard way that characterizing any competitive race as Likely two and a half months out is a bad idea. Even two weeks out can be risky.

That being said, I *could* see this as Likely D by election day, but I'll need a lot of strong evidence before I make that sort of call. Personally I don't expect to classify it as anything more than Lean D.

Also, is an 80% chance of victory really "likely"? I feel like the likely threshold needs to be raised to something more like 85%.

But I agree, DDHQ model seems to take polls way too literally which pushes a lot of competitive Senate seats hard left past fundamentals that are keeping the House very R.

I think one thing that makes this challenging to analyze is Mark Kelly very recently had a race where polling far out reguarly had him up 10 points, only to close to like 4 by ED and for him to only win by a little over 2%. I think what many saw as a closer than expected calls is scaring folks a bit about 2022. However, if you input all the existing data we have into any sane model, it'd output Kelly as a clear favorite (Usual Swing State, Incumbent who overperformed top of ticket, Kelly has money advantage, the polling average is Kelly + 10, ect) even though most of us as humans have a belief and I'd argue a justified belief that the race will be a lot closer than these data points would project.

Personally, I tend to like the 538 model better; in 2020 they still gave McSally a 20%+ chance throughout even as many other models had completely written her off. 538's current project of 70% Kelly seems a bit more reasonable than most other models at this point. JHK's forecast for Senate and House seem pretty good at dealing with lopsided polling averages.

My main worry for Kelly and frankly AZ Dems is usually Hispanic turnout is dreadful in midterms and it'd take quite a lot of investment to change that. Sinema had to do universally better than Kelly with whites to win by the exact same margin.

Isn't Kelly still winning in LV polls.

Yes but even LV polls can have issues with predicting turnout dynamics

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1561908758678085634?t=IrhlZutHt7PveQBgvMMViA&s=19

Unlike Progressive Moderate R nut map Kelly has a 80%/19 CHANCE of winning

Kelly 80
Master 19.1

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1561908758678085634?t=IrhlZutHt7PveQBgvMMViA&s=19

Unlike Progressive Moderate R nut map Kelly has a 80%/19 CHANCE of winning

Kelly 80
Master 19.1

If Master has only 19.1% who has the other 0.9%?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1561908758678085634?t=IrhlZutHt7PveQBgvMMViA&s=19

Unlike Progressive Moderate R nut map Kelly has a 80%/19 CHANCE of winning

Kelly 80
Master 19.1

If Master has only 19.1% who has the other 0.9%?

Honestly the DDHQ model seems like a hot mess right now. Maybe they'll figure it out, but there seems to be too many kinks atm

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1561908758678085634?t=IrhlZutHt7PveQBgvMMViA&s=19

Unlike Progressive Moderate R nut map Kelly has a 80%/19 CHANCE of winning

Kelly 80
Master 19.1

If Master has only 19.1% who has the other 0.9%?

I think it's a Gila Monster wearing a Hawaiian shirt, but don't quote me on that. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/azpolitico22/status/1561908758678085634?t=IrhlZutHt7PveQBgvMMViA&s=19

Unlike Progressive Moderate R nut map Kelly has a 80%/19 CHANCE of winning

Kelly 80
Master 19.1

If Master has only 19.1% who has the other 0.9%?

I think it's a Gila Monster wearing a Hawaiian shirt, but don't quote me on that. 

Honestly can’t imagine a better senator for Arizona

[MT Treasurer]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

Looks smart. Arizona does feel like a place in which an "non-libertarian thing the government did" could be more effectively attacked than elsewhere.