AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1513941542930567168?cxt=HHwWgMCq0fzzzIIqAA...

These Sen numbers should be enlightening (Attorney General is actually a very competitive race, curious to see those numbers too)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1513941542930567168?cxt=HHwWgMCq0fzzzIIqAA...
These Sen numbers should be enlightening (Attorney General is actually a very competitive race, curious to see those numbers too)

OH Predictive is a terrible pollster whose crosstabs are really off. They consistently get everything wrong and had Cortez-Masto up by 9! (LOL)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1513941542930567168?cxt=HHwWgMCq0fzzzIIqAA...
These Sen numbers should be enlightening (Attorney General is actually a very competitive race, curious to see those numbers too)

OH Predictive is a terrible pollster whose crosstabs are really off. They consistently get everything wrong and had Cortez-Masto up by 9! (LOL)

They predicted AZ Sen race correct and Prez race correct in 2020/ I know you want to believe Rs are winning the Senate race but Kelly has been ahead in every poll

Just like Trump couldn't believe he lost AZ last time

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1513941542930567168?cxt=HHwWgMCq0fzzzIIqAA...
These Sen numbers should be enlightening (Attorney General is actually a very competitive race, curious to see those numbers too)

OH Predictive is a terrible pollster whose crosstabs are really off. They consistently get everything wrong and had Cortez-Masto up by 9! (LOL)

They predicted AZ Sen race correct and Prez race correct in 2020/ I know you want to believe Rs are winning the Senate race but Kelly has been ahead in every poll

Just like Trump couldn't believe he lost AZ last time

They overestimated dems by a lot in AZ in 2020 lol. They got the winners right but the margin was way off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov Ducey was best buddies with Cindy McCain and he was another Mike DeWine and Chris SUNUNU but Lake running for Gov isn't saying whether she will certify Kelly as the winner and she isn't popular among D's and Rs but Ducey whom is TL did certify that's why Rs are underperforming in 22 Ducey was censured and isn't running for Gov

That's why Kelly needs Hobbs to win as Gov Lake is not Ducey whom hasn't said she will certify the winner

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1513941542930567168?cxt=HHwWgMCq0fzzzIIqAA...
These Sen numbers should be enlightening (Attorney General is actually a very competitive race, curious to see those numbers too)

OH Predictive is a terrible pollster whose crosstabs are really off. They consistently get everything wrong and had Cortez-Masto up by 9! (LOL)

I’ll take any data points at the moment

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1513941542930567168?cxt=HHwWgMCq0fzzzIIqAA...
These Sen numbers should be enlightening (Attorney General is actually a very competitive race, curious to see those numbers too)

OH Predictive is a terrible pollster whose crosstabs are really off. They consistently get everything wrong and had Cortez-Masto up by 9! (LOL)

I’ll take any data points at the moment

True, but I would take their poll with a grain of salt.

[wbrocks67]

Not great fundraising

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1513992080078557190

[Sir Mohamed]

Not great fundraising

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1513992080078557190

Could point to a lack of enthusiasm, though I wouldn't say this makes the race Tilt or Lean D, despite Kelly's insane fundraising. A wave big enough may very well carry a GOP candidate over the finishline.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Not great fundraising

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1513992080078557190

Brnovich has had terrible fundraising for a while and his frontrunner status (which was 100% due to his name rec) is disappearing as he has been plummeting in polls.
As I've been saying for months, this will be a Lamon-Masters two-way race by July.

[xavier110]

Brno has put himself in a position where he pleases no one. More moderate/traditional McCain Republicans see through his shtick, as do the QAnoners.

Agreed that it ultimately is Masters and Lamon as the top two, though maybe McGuire can have his moment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isn't losing this race its Titanium D

We haven't seen any Gov polls but Lake is under polling Hobbs it was Lake 41)40 and Ducey always won Landslides

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

I don't think Kari Lake is any less strong than Generic R.

I would disagree. She's a total crackpot and has went out of her way to endorse far-right conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and other things. She's way worse than a generic R. At this point, McSally would basically be a generic R and Lake is way more far-right than she is, and unabashedly so.

Being far-right or endorsing 2020 conspiracy theories (which basically all non-incumbent 2022 candidates have done across the US) does not make someone a bad candidate.
She seems well-spoken in interviews and she comes across like the sort of person who can smartly adapt once she wins the primary.

Yes. Yes it does.

[xavier110]

The poll came out: https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/az-gop-gov-race-lake-leads-robson-climbing-salmon-stalls

Brno 21
Lamon 16
Masters 9
McGuire 6

Lake 29
Robson 22
Salmon 11

They also polled downballot races… not much to glean there. I was surprised Finchem didn’t score higher; I figure he’ll run away with it regardless.

Masters really hasn’t taken off. Maybe running an online-centric campaign as a tech bro isn’t the best way to target a primary electorate that is geriatric, lol. He could do it though with the Trump blessing. Lamon and Robson would be my nominee predictions if forced to guess today.

[ElectionsGuy]

Masters really needs the Trump endorsement, moreso than Vance at this point. But Lamon might even get it if Masters doesn't get above 10 because Trump doesn't like the endorse "losers".

[xavier110]

Masters really needs the Trump endorsement, moreso than Vance at this point. But Lamon might even get it if Masters doesn't get above 10 because Trump doesn't like the endorse "losers".

Agreed, Lamont got Grenell’s endorsement, and he’s usually a good proxy for Trump, Flynn, et al. I’m curious if and when Trump will endorse in the race — probably holding off til closer to July when vote by mail starts (ironic).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's a 2 way race between Brnovich and Lamon now. I don't see Masters getting any real traction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Rs are losing the Senate race Duvey has always won landslidea she isn't a slam dunk and she can lose to Hobbs

[Ferguson97]

It's a 2 way race between Brnovich and Lamon now. I don't see Masters getting any real traction.

What's your consensus on the general as an AZ resident? Is Kelly DOA or does he have a shot if he gets a weaker challenger and runs a good campaign?

[Earthling]

It's a 2 way race between Brnovich and Lamon now. I don't see Masters getting any real traction.

What's your consensus on the general as an AZ resident? Is Kelly DOA or does he have a shot if he gets a weaker challenger and runs a good campaign?

Isn't Kelly leading against both in the polls?

[Grassroots]

Compare Brno's fundraising and cash-on-hand versus Masters' fundraising and cash on hand.

We are going to see this play out this summer before the August primary.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Compare Brno's fundraising and cash-on-hand versus Masters' fundraising and cash on hand.

We are going to see this play out this summer before the August primary.

Exactly. Brnovich's campaign is already collapsing and he will end up a non-factor by August, the only reason he has any support rn is name recognition.
The only reason Lamon is doing well rn is he's spending millions on ads, way more than any other candidate. He might be peaking too soon.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's a 2 way race between Brnovich and Lamon now. I don't see Masters getting any real traction.

What's your consensus on the general as an AZ resident? Is Kelly DOA or does he have a shot if he gets a weaker challenger and runs a good campaign?

I have the race at Lean R
He certainly isn't DOA, and can win but it doesn't look good for him right now. He is running ads on moderate issues (healthcare, infrastructure) but is continently avoiding things like inflation and the border which do matter especially in Arizona which has been very hard-hit by both of those.
The Republican ads are still in primary mode, and I expect them to moderate after the summer in preparation for the general.
None of the R candidates are great but Masters/Lamon/Brnovich certainly aren't Martha McSally/Kelly Ward tier which is part of the reason he won in 2020. I honestly don't think who the Republican candidate is matters that much as long as they can make it a referendum on Joe Biden.
How many swing voters are really going to say "I absolutely hate Biden, but since Republicans nominated Lamon over Brnovich I will be voting Kelly"?
Biden narrowly carried the state, and his approval is now abysmal. Add in a red wave year, and I just don't think Kelly can hold on this time. Even in 2020, he underan his RCP polling by 3.7% while Biden only underan his by 0.6%. Mark Kelly isn't some electoral juggernaut like John McCain. He is stronger than his colleague Cortez-Masto in neighboring Nevada but that isn't saying much. At this point I would be surprised if he won, but I still wouldn't rule it out yet.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1515020906665447426

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1516175457942749199