AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Xing]

*Yawn* Kelly wins every county (except Maricopa, of course), unless Steve Daines moves to AZ to run against him. However, a titan intervention on the part of Daines would leave Testerland as Democratic as D.C., and Daines understands that his Masculine Bipartisan Energy is needed to neutralize Jon Tester and his Super-Tractors.

[Chips]

This is likely a true toss-up one way or the other.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is likely to win, Biden is at 53% approvals and the PVI is likely to be 3.0 like last time, Biden is not in the mid 40s

[xavier110]

I don't see how being Trumpian is a big problem for the Republicans. Trump got 49% of the vote in Arizona, he isn't that unpopular here, and with it being a Biden midterm it might not even matter that much since the dynamics are different. I don't think it's fair to compare to Nevada 2010 where McCain/Palin lost by over 12 points.

Arizona is probably one of the best test cases for the midterm realignment theory, where reliable, more educated voters turn out... it seems reasonable to assume that these folks in AZ are not as Trumpy as the juiced up turnout in 2020. Do they revert to GOP though? Do the rural communities still mobilize in droves?

I have my doubts, anecdotally, if my suburban professional class friends who voted Republican in the past (think Romney/Ducey voters) but were Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters are any sign. They wouldn’t be caught dead voting for Biggs, Ward, etc.

Arizona has a lot of Hispanics, the low propensity Trump voters would be a bigger problem for Republicans in a state like Wisconsin.

I guess my point is evaluating the people who do normally turn out, and those are well educated white people in the suburbs.

And in the Phoenix area a lot of them have been Republicans until 2018. Hard to tell if their shift to blue is as permanent as say the ATL suburbs, especially with a D as president. Really comes down to if the Trump stink has stayed — which is possible given the AZ GOP loons.

Those folks will probably decide the election here. Tbh, I wouldn’t be surprised if many of them are R Gov/Kelly voters, like they were in 2018, to assuage their conscience.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let the Rs keep underestimating Biden and Kelly they are 0/3 against him and haven't won the PVI since 2016, what makes 2022 any different, after the insurrection

[NYDem]

Do people not get tired of making literally the same exact joke 55 times and derailing every thread about a potentially competitive election?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Generic ballot is 47/42 D Kelly will win

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Do people not get tired of making literally the same exact joke 55 times and derailing every thread about a potentially competitive election?

What does Young Kim have to do with Arizona?

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1386651749457465347?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

From Politico (Doug Ducey could reconsider his decision of not running) : '' The GOP is still trying to recruit Ducey to take on Kelly, amid fears within the party that a Trump-aligned candidate could blow a winnable race. Mark Brnovich, the state attorney general, is seriously considering a bid, according to a GOP operative familiar with his thinking. In addition, Peter Thiel invested $10 million in a super PAC to back Blake Masters, the chief operating officer of his firm Thiel Capital.

Kelly declined to criticize the reeling Arizona GOP and said he has a “good relationship” with Ducey, dubbed “the second worst Republican governor in America" by former President Donald Trump. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who met recently with Ducey, said “he’s gone from no to ‘well, I’ll listen.’ It made me more hopeful.” Kelly predicted he “will have an opponent that will work hard and will be well-funded. ''

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are gonna spend millions on an unwinnable AZ race just like D's are gonna pour millions on Beasley instead of Jackson, ha?

The Rs haven't won the PVI since 2016 and McCain was Senator
 

[Pink Panther]

From Politico (Doug Ducey could reconsider his decision of not running) : '' The GOP is still trying to recruit Ducey to take on Kelly, amid fears within the party that a Trump-aligned candidate could blow a winnable race. Mark Brnovich, the state attorney general, is seriously considering a bid, according to a GOP operative familiar with his thinking. In addition, Peter Thiel invested $10 million in a super PAC to back Blake Masters, the chief operating officer of his firm Thiel Capital.

Kelly declined to criticize the reeling Arizona GOP and said he has a “good relationship” with Ducey, dubbed “the second worst Republican governor in America" by former President Donald Trump. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who met recently with Ducey, said “he’s gone from no to ‘well, I’ll listen.’ It made me more hopeful.” Kelly predicted he “will have an opponent that will work hard and will be well-funded. ''

Apparently, Trump is thinking about endorsing Kelly if Ducey changes his mind and is the GOP nominee.

[President Johnson]

Ducey would have been a strong candidate in 2020, but 2022 is likely a different story. He may not even win the primary if Trump goes against him and in the general he could struggle with Republican turnout for simply confirming Joe Biden's presidential win. He won't get support from Democrats and leaners either.

[Lognog]

Ducey would have been a strong candidate in 2020, but 2022 is likely a different story. He may not even win the primary if Trump goes against him and in the general he could struggle with Republican turnout for simply confirming Joe Biden's presidential win. He won't get support from Democrats and leaners either.

yeah the last GOP governor that "didn't fight hard enough for Trump", Kemp, could lose a primary as an incumbent governor. I really think the AZ GOP is too far gone to nominate someone that isn't drinking the kool aid of the big lie. Also, I really don't think Trump likes the guy. There are so many trumpists for trump to chose from, I highly doubt he wants Ducey.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since, Kelly said she won't pack Crts due to Federalize LGBT rights, at SCOTUS D's like Hassan and Ryan and Kelly should be better off for getting Elected

If D's packed the Crts LGBT rights would get to nationalize it, that's why Hillary and Kerry lost, they would of picked a 5th and deciding vote, of Crts packed the Crts it would be the 7th and deciding vote

[Spectator]

Ducey would be Kelly’s dream opponent.

[brucejoel99]

From Politico (Doug Ducey could reconsider his decision of not running) : '' The GOP is still trying to recruit Ducey to take on Kelly, amid fears within the party that a Trump-aligned candidate could blow a winnable race. Mark Brnovich, the state attorney general, is seriously considering a bid, according to a GOP operative familiar with his thinking. In addition, Peter Thiel invested $10 million in a super PAC to back Blake Masters, the chief operating officer of his firm Thiel Capital.

Kelly declined to criticize the reeling Arizona GOP and said he has a “good relationship” with Ducey, dubbed “the second worst Republican governor in America" by former President Donald Trump. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who met recently with Ducey, said “he’s gone from no to ‘well, I’ll listen.’ It made me more hopeful.” Kelly predicted he “will have an opponent that will work hard and will be well-funded. ''

Apparently, Trump is thinking about endorsing Kelly if Ducey changes his mind and is the GOP nominee.

Imagine wasting political capital that badly just to stick it to... *checks notes* ... Doug Ducey?

[Pericles]

How are Ducey's approval ratings doing? Arizona has one of the highest Covid per capita death tolls in the US, is that effecting his support?

[Tiger08]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1387595838994649091

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1387595838994649091

If he keeps up this "moderate hero" rhetoric, he will lose.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1387595838994649091

If he keeps up this "moderate hero" rhetoric, he will lose.

Just like Joe Manchin, Jared Golden, Susan Collins, and Sinema lost their races?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1387595838994649091

If he keeps up this "moderate hero" rhetoric, he will lose.

Not on immigration, I have to disappoint you. Kelly shouldn't appear as too moderate on other issues like healthcare, minimum wage and infrastructure, which most Americans support beyond partisan divides, but immigration is a different story. If Dems outside blue states and district embrace a too liberal immigration policy, that'll do us no good. We need to maintain a more careful position and better messaging here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1387595838994649091

If he keeps up this "moderate hero" rhetoric, he will lose.

Just like Joe Manchin, Jared Golden, Susan Collins, and Sinema lost their races?

I mean, it’s pretty clear Sinema’s Moderate Hero schtick has almost singlehandedly tanked her approvals to the point where she wouldn’t even win the primary if it were held today and Golden didn’t really start these antics until after the 2020 election.  Manchin has gotten lucky with his past opponents, but his performative ConservaDem schtick definitely helps him in WV.  Collins isn’t even remotely moderate, she’s a generic partisan hack who has managed to dupe enough Democrats into thinking she’s a moderate to win re-election.  As such Golden doesn’t really work to prove your point and Sinema is actually evidence that supports SnowLabrador’s argument.  

I doubt anyone cares about this tweet, but if Kelly starts being perceived as holding up things Democrats actually care about like HB 1, gun control, $15 minimum wage (Sinema made herself the face of ConservaDem opposition to that even if it was never gonna pass in hindsight), etc or starts making keeping the filibuster a hill to die on then he’ll likely lose.  I doubt that will happen though, especially since he’s had a chance to see how much that schtick hurt Sinema with voters (tanked her approvals with Democrats without increasing her support from Republicans or independents IIRC).

I suspect Kelly is just waiting to quietly get on the reservation until we’re actually at the point where it really matters.  Manchin changes his position practically every week and Sinema probably isn’t gonna choose to randomly destroy her political career and ensure a humiliating defeat in 2024 (either by losing the primary or with a low-to-mid double-digit loss in the GE) b/c of some weird obsession with keeping the filibuster.  I mean, does anyone think that is the one issue she feels so passionately about that she’ll sacrifice her political career over it?  Seriously?

I think Sinema just miscalculated and assumed she’d be getting bipartisan praise from the pundit class and solidify her popularity with independents by vocally opposing filibuster reform.  Now that it has become clear that rather than being heralded as John McCain’s second coming, she’s just managed to piss off her base w/o gaining any meaningful crossover support, she’ll probably wait to reverse course until she gets a high-profile opportunity to do so.  

If she times her filibuster flip-flop right and it gets enough play, it’ll give her a real shot at undoing the damage.  However, it’s far too early for that atm.  That’ll happen when HB 1 is actually being debated although Manchin and her are going to have to negotiate their choreography.

[Pollster]

Given the state he represents, the coalition he needs to win, and what his Republican opponent's campaign will probably look like, immigration is probably the right issue for Kelly to be rhetorically moderate on.

[Spectator]

I think Collins and Golden are a very interesting study in how they’ve both mastered the art of BS bipartisanship feel-good hoopla. It’s speaks to how dumb the voters of Maine really are that they fell for both of their acts and split their tickets between the two pretty hugely.

In hindsight, I think Jared Golden is probably the only Democrat who could have beaten Susan Collins last year. I doubt he would ever run directly against her considering his history with her, but it would be a very nauseating, complex race.

Sinema doesn’t pull it off nearly as well as Manchin, Collins, and Golden. She’s not fooling anyone.