AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[The Arizonan]

It’ll be a shame when he inevitably loses by 0.12% in 2028, though.

Ducey is term-limited, though. Who (other than Ducey) is formidable enough to take on Kelly in 2028? Remember, in case you didn’t notice, this is the AZ GOP we’re talking about here. They’ll likely blow AZ-GOV in 2022 by nominating some crazy lunatic like Ward or Biggs, so they won’t even have an incumbent Republican governor to run against Kelly in 2028, and that means they’ll face an uphill battle that year for sure. Maybe they run some reasonable, sane Republican in 2034, but by then the state will be solidly Democratic, so it wouldn’t matter.

Going through the current Republican MoC's from Arizona:

Gosar: no explanation needed

Biggs: voted against funding the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund (Gosar also voted against funding it)

Lesko: doesn't have any problems that stand out other than being very Trumpy (spoke at the Trump Tulsa rally, is a Freedom Caucus member, signed the amicus brief in support of Texas v. Pennsylvania, etc.) which will not be the most useful thing when running statewide in what is now a purple state.

Schweikert: Reprimanded by the House in 2020 for 11 violations, the worst being a fake $100k loan his 2012 reelection campaign reported in order to make his war-chest look more intimidating.
(not important, but: is it just me or does he have a weirdly proportioned face?)

That guy happens to be my congressman.

[Boobs]

Schweikert: Reprimanded by the House in 2020 for 11 violations, the worst being a fake $100k loan his 2012 reelection campaign reported in order to make his war-chest look more intimidating.
(not important, but: is it just me or does he have a weirdly proportioned face?)

It's his glasses. They make him look like a lizard.

Plus, he's self-conscious.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think he'll be fine next year. Yee might be the GOP's best candidate, but I don't think she'd beat Gosar or Biggs in the primary.

[Pollster]

AZ Central is reporting that Jim Lamon, the chairman of the solar energy company Depcom Power, is considering seeking the Republican nomination. He's apparently close to the state's Republican apparatus and launched a conservative voter registration group to support Trump. No word on if he can/will self-fund.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1380539531678646272?s=20

[Not Me, Us]

Run, Andy, run!

[Lognog]

This race is a very 2010 like election. Easily winnable race for the GOP which is out of power. Only to be torpedoed by the dumbest people in the party. I'm not optimistic about 2022, but I really can't see Bigs, Gosar, or Ward beating Kelly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is not Sinema, fortunately, Sinema is running in 2024 Prez or she would be DOA.  Kelly is a vet and we have had Vets win before like Jack Murtha. That's why Ryan and Jackson will win, they appeal to vets. Mandel is a vet and Ryan appeal to vets and Jackson is a Vet himself

Nelson lost to Rick Scott whom was way more popular than he is now

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't see how being Trumpian is a big problem for the Republicans. Trump got 49% of the vote in Arizona, he isn't that unpopular here, and with it being a Biden midterm it might not even matter that much since the dynamics are different. I don't think it's fair to compare to Nevada 2010 where McCain/Palin lost by over 12 points.

[Astatine]

Leaked footage of Andy Biggs launching his 2022 Senate campaign.

[xavier110]

I don't see how being Trumpian is a big problem for the Republicans. Trump got 49% of the vote in Arizona, he isn't that unpopular here, and with it being a Biden midterm it might not even matter that much since the dynamics are different. I don't think it's fair to compare to Nevada 2010 where McCain/Palin lost by over 12 points.

Arizona is probably one of the best test cases for the midterm realignment theory, where reliable, more educated voters turn out... it seems reasonable to assume that these folks in AZ are not as Trumpy as the juiced up turnout in 2020. Do they revert to GOP though? Do the rural communities still mobilize in droves?

I have my doubts, anecdotally, if my suburban professional class friends who voted Republican in the past (think Romney/Ducey voters) but were Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters are any sign. They wouldn’t be caught dead voting for Biggs, Ward, etc.

[Pericles]

I don't see how being Trumpian is a big problem for the Republicans. Trump got 49% of the vote in Arizona, he isn't that unpopular here, and with it being a Biden midterm it might not even matter that much since the dynamics are different. I don't think it's fair to compare to Nevada 2010 where McCain/Palin lost by over 12 points.

Arizona is probably one of the best test cases for the midterm realignment theory, where reliable, more educated voters turn out... it seems reasonable to assume that these folks in AZ are not as Trumpy as the juiced up turnout in 2020. Do they revert to GOP though? Do the rural communities still mobilize in droves?

I have my doubts, anecdotally, if my suburban professional class friends who voted Republican in the past (think Romney/Ducey voters) but were Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters are any sign. They wouldn’t be caught dead voting for Biggs, Ward, etc.

Arizona has a lot of Hispanics, the low propensity Trump voters would be a bigger problem for Republicans in a state like Wisconsin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly isn't Sinema, Sinema is very fortunate she is running in a Prez yr not 2022 or she would be DOA.

Kelly wins

[Matty]

Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a Republican, is leaning toward challenging Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in 2022 after initially moving toward a run for governor.

Brnovich, 54, has won two statewide elections in Arizona, which means he has survived two Republican primaries — including one since former President Donald Trump came to dominate the party. The attorney general’s supporters believe those results are proof he can attract support from disparate wings of the GOP and make him the ideal candidate to run against Kelly in the general election.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/arizona-attorney-general-eyes-senate-race-against-mark-kelly?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

[2016]

Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich eying Senate Run against Senator Mark Kelly.
https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1384266584080883718?s=20
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/arizona-attorney-general-eyes-senate-race-against-mark-kelly

After Ducey Brnovich is probably the next best thing. Brnovich together with Ducey and Yee survived the 2018 Democratic Midterm Wave in AZ with all 3 winning Re-Election.

If Brnovich runs for Senate that probably means Kimberly Yee runs for Governor.

[2016]

Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a Republican, is leaning toward challenging Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in 2022 after initially moving toward a run for governor.

Brnovich, 54, has won two statewide elections in Arizona, which means he has survived two Republican primaries — including one since former President Donald Trump came to dominate the party. The attorney general’s supporters believe those results are proof he can attract support from disparate wings of the GOP and make him the ideal candidate to run against Kelly in the general election.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/arizona-attorney-general-eyes-senate-race-against-mark-kelly?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Brnovich is the next best thing after Ducey.

[VAR]

Still Safe D. Kelli Ward's antics will make him DOA even if he runs a perfect campaign. Have I mentioned Kelly is an astroNUT?

[2016]

Still Safe D. Kelli Ward's antics will make him DOA even if he runs a perfect campaign. Have I mentioned Kelly is an astroNUT?

Hilarious! AZ is never SAFE D especially not in a Midterm. Brnovich along with Ducey and Yee survived the 2018 Democratic Wave in AZ which cost Republicans the Senate Seat (Sinema), SoS Office (Hobbs) and Superintendent of Public Instruction Office (Hoffmann).

If Brnovich can survive a D-Wave in AZ there is no reason to think that he doesn't have a shot against Kelly.

[VAR]

Hilarious! AZ is never SAFE D especially not in a Midterm. Brnovich along with Ducey and Yee survived the 2018 Democratic Wave in AZ which cost Republicans the Senate Seat (Sinema), SoS Office (Hobbs) and Superintendent of Public Instruction Office (Hoffmann).

If Brnovich can survive a D-Wave in AZ there is no reason to think that he doesn't have a shot against Kelly.

Kelly is an astroNUT. AstroNUTs win big unless they're facing a popular governor. Ducey would beat him by 0.12%, but unless he runs, I doubt even God himself could defeat Kelly.

[SnowLabrador]

This is more likely to flip than Georgia.

[2016]

This is more likely to flip than Georgia.

Not sure about that but yes Brnovich would be a decent Statewide Candidate assuming Ducey doesn't change his mind.

[I’m not Stu]

Are Brnovich's chances of winning the primary good?

[Lognog]

Brnovich would make this race tilt R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brnovich would make this race tilt R

No

[MT Treasurer]

Brnovich is overrated and would lose the GE by a solid 55.2-42.2 margin, Ward would lose 60.3-38.1. While Brnovich might do better than Ward, there’s still no top-tier R recruit in sight here who could actually make this competitive. You need a pitch-perfect campaign to even pose a remote threat to someone of Kelly's caliber, and it’s pretty clear the loony AZ GOP has absolutely no one who could run such a race, especially with Ducey reading the tea leaves and staying out of the race. Likely D.

I actually discussed this with my Biden/Schumer-hating, tutu-wearing, neoliberal 46-year-old aunt from Glendale and she’d give Brnovich a solid 3.5/10 in terms of candidate quality. However, since she’s not even considering any Republican who didn’t score at least 7.5 on her evaluation sheet, he’s out. Here’s what she just sent me:

"Hey Max, this is basically how I feel about them:

SINEMA

Ideology - 4/4
Messaging - 2.5/3
Tutu? Astronaut? - 3/3
----------------------
9.5/10
Grade: A

BRNOVICH

Ideology - 2.5/4
Messaging - 1/3
Tutu? Astronaut? - 0/3
----------------------
3.5/10
Grade: F

YEE

Ideology - 4/4
Messaging - 2/3
Tutu? Astronaut? - 0/3
-----------------------
6/10
Grade: C-

Hope this makes sense, I do have separate evaluation sheets for each of the three criteria as well (let me know if you need those, too). Geez, it’s getting late, I’m honestly worn out today. Do you by any chance have a link to Cornyn's 2020 county map you could send me? I’d really appreciate it if you did. Take care!"