2020 without George Floyd

[wimp]

how would the race have turned out without the george floyd protests?

[Chips]

You could've made the case for Minnesota being closer and Wisconsin perhaps turning over but otherwise no changes.

[NewYorkExpress]

In hindsight, the George Floyd protests caused a whitelash which probably significantly hurt Biden.

[Agonized-Statism]

Biden's win in states like Georgia and Arizona was because of suburban backlash against Trump for his erratic behavior and handling of the pandemic, not because of the high minority turnout that won Obama states like North Carolina. It would be interesting to see how many minorities came out of the racial unrest this summer more jaded about the American political system as a whole than they were excited to vote for the Democrats (or Republicans for that matter), but I doubt we'll ever get honest polling on that. If that was the case, then no George Floyd would mean a bigger Democratic victory, with gains in the Southeast in particular. Additionally, some white suburbanites who were turned off by the protests this summer might have voted Biden.

Also important to note is that the Floyd killing wasn't the only incident highlighting systemic racism this year. There was also Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, Christian Cooper, and Jacob Blake, both before and after May 25. Aside from being the most extensively filmed and unusually cruel of the incidents this year, Floyd's murder was amplified over the others because it was the first to happen after the lockdown started and its economic effects were taking a serious toll, particularly on the poor and minorities. Combine that with the country being more politically conscious heading into election season and this civil unrest was a powder keg ready to blow.

[Alben Barkley]

In hindsight, the George Floyd protests caused a whitelash which probably significantly hurt Biden.

I'm not sure about that, as whites did end up trending towards Biden while most minorities trended the other way. Maybe there is truth to the idea that Latinos were turned off by BLM, but that doesn't explain black men trending towards Trump. Plus I think Cubans in Miami-Dade would have doomed Florida for us no matter what; the "socialism socialism socialism" chants seem to have been really effective.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Over the next four years, we are going to hear a lot about how "the riots helped Trump" and Democrats moved too far to the left more than any other potential cause of increases in Trump support. This is because these are the things that made cable TV news hosts feel most like voting for Trump, not because they actually understand any of the trends. They may well have been factors, but the effects of the lockdowns/the rest of 2020 are probably going to get overlooked, IMO.

[Alben Barkley]

Over the next four years, we are going to hear a lot about how "the riots helped Trump" and Democrats moved too far to the left more than any other potential cause of increases in Trump support. This is because these are the things that felt cable TV news hosts feel most like voting for Trump, not because they actually understand any of the trends. They may well have been factors, but the effects of the lockdowns/the rest of 2020 are probably going to get overlooked, IMO.

Plus there's the fact that the states where the rioting was worst and that was supposed to doom us -- Minnesota and Wisconsin -- pulled through, especially Minnesota where the George Floyd incident happened in the first place. And those are pretty white states. Maybe you could argue we would have won them by more without the riots, but it's gonna be real hard to prove. There was also Georgia, site of the Rayshard Brooks incident and riots (remember the burned down Wendy's?). I don't recall there being as major riots in Florida, Ohio, Texas, yet that's where we underperformed the polls the worst.

[bagelman]

Biden has a stronger swing with whites which helps and may likely exceed the lost black turnout. This is due to the prevention of BLM or Defund the Police which galvanized Trumpist turnout. Biden may trade GA for NC or win both. FL is not out of the question.

The George Floyd event on it's own galvanized black turnout and helped Biden including with non-blacks. It was a vicious crime and incredibly evil. Makes me cry just thinking about it. But it was overshadowed by the reaction in the context of Biden vs. Trump.

[HisGrace]

Trump probably keeps Georgia (and no Senate runoff) but that's it. In the rust belt the white/black reactions probably cancelled each other out.

[MATTROSE94]

Joe Biden probably does a lot better with the white vote and with the African American vote (I think that Donald Trump's proposed "platinum plan" for African Americans would not have been announced if the race riots didn't happen), so maybe we end up with the 413 Authoritarian NUT map after all?