2026 US Senate elections

[Figueira]

I know it's a bit silly at this point but we're election nerds so why not?

Alabama: Tuberville probably runs for re-election. Safe R.
Alaska: We don't even know the 2020 result, but one can assume that Dan Sullivan is heavily favored in 2026.
Arkansas: Cotton runs again and wins unless he's President, VP, or some other executive branch role. If not, some other Republican wins.
Colorado: Hickenlooper is getting old but he most likely runs for re-election and won't have any trouble winning.
Delaware: Coons runs again and will have no problem winning.
Georgia: This one will be hotly contested regardless of who comes out on top in 2020.
Idaho: Risch will be 83. Will he retire? Who knows, but it's Safe R either way.
Illinois: Durbin is in the same boat as Risch.
Iowa: Ernst probably has an easier time winning, but you never know. It depends on how things go in 2024 at the presidential level.
Kansas: Assuming Marshall runs for re-election, he should have no trouble winning.
Kentucky: Are Democrats really going to do this thing again?
Louisiana: Cassidy wins easily.
Maine: This is a tricky one. Collins won pretty convincingly but she still did worse than in any previous year. Democrats would be stupid not to try again. Lean R if Collins runs, Lean D if she doesn't.
Massachusetts: No Democrat is going to try to primary Markey again, but if he retires, this could be the big primary we've all been waiting for. Will Pressley come out on top?
Michigan: This is another tossup. Probably depends on the national mood and how Michigan votes in 2024.
Minnesota: Another slightly underwhelming victory for Smith?
Mississippi: See above.
Montana: After last time it's hard to see anyone beating Daines. I guess how hard Democrats try depends on how Tester performs in 2024.
Nebraska: I don't know what Sasse's political future is, but the Republicans hold this either way.
New Hampshire: Could get interesting if Shaheen retires, but she should get re-elected if she doesn't.
New Jersey: Booker may have moved on from the Senate by then, but it's Safe D either way.
New Mexico: Luján should be able to win pretty easily.
North Carolina: The 2020 election technically hasn't been called yet, but it will be close either way.
Oklahoma: I'm guessing Inhofe finally retires?
Oregon: Merkley will be fine if he runs again.
Rhode Island: Nothing to see here unless Reed retires.
South Carolina: Graham probably wins again.
Tennessee: Hagerty probably wins again.
Texas: Depends on a lot of things.
Virginia: Warner or some other Democrat wins.
West Virginia: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R

Overall, not a whole lot of great pickup opportunities for either party.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There'll probably be special elections up with this class of Senate seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

President Harris or President DeSantis makes a big difference here. One interesting thing I've always wondered is if this will be Collins last term - and I think it will be since she got a big scare even if she won decently. That should be a good pickup opportunity for Democrats but the state may trend right by then. Pickups opportunities for Democrats...

GA (if Perdue wins the runoff)
ME
NC
TX

Pickup opportunities for Republicans...

MI
MN
NH

We're getting to a point with these Senate classes where the polarization if making for very few competitive races. 2024 is the only one where Democrats still have a lot of seats in red/redish states.

[Tekken_Guy]

AL: Tuberville wins
AK: Sullivan wins
AR: Cotton wins if he's still a senator by then. Otherwise another Republican.
CO: Hickenlooper goes for one last term.
DE: Coons probably runs again. He should win easily
GA: Ossoff will run again if he wins, but Perdue could very well retire.
ID: Risch may retire because he'll be old. Maybe Little follows him to office, otherwise Fulcher?
IL: Easy hold for Democrats regardless of whether or not Durbin runs again. Underwood may finally step to the plate.
IA: Ernst should win again if she runs.
KS: Marshall wins.
KY: Safe R regardless of it's McConnell or another Republican (Cameron?)
LA: Cassidy.
ME: Collins might finally retire. Dems should probably pick up the seat without her.
MA: I think Markey will retire after this. Pressley would be favored if she's not in Warren's seat by then.
MI: This'll probably be a nail biter. This probably goes along with the national mood.
MN: This will probably be Smith's tightest race yet if we're in a GOP-friendly environment.
MS: Hyde-Smith easily.
MT: Daines is safe if even Bullock got blown out.
NE: Safe R. Yawn.
NJ: Safe D. Jawn
NM: Lujan should be favored, but after how close it was this could be a sleeper.
NC: This'll likely go down to the wire, with Tillis being more likely to give the GOP the win than an open seat. If he retires, Cawthorn or Hudson might step up. Roy Cooper may finally go at it two years after leaving Raleigh.
OK: I got a feeling Inhofe finally hangs up the boots. Senator Bice it is.
OR: This seat is safe D with or without Merkley,
RI: Safe D, with or withour Reed. Successor may be Cicciline?
SC: Graham could very possibly retire. Mace would probably be his successor since I can't see Haley running below President at this point.
SD: Safe R. If Rounds retires, Noem or Johnson are next in line.
TN: Hagerty wins with ease.
TX: Cornyn may finally hang it up. Dan Crenshaw is the frontrunner if he is not in the White House or Cruz's seat.
VA: If Warner retires, Spanberger would be frontrunner most likely.
WV: Safe R. SMC will be re elected if she runs again, and Riley will take over if she retires.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME and NC probably will flip next time

[Mr.Phips]

President Harris or President DeSantis makes a big difference here. One interesting thing I've always wondered is if this will be Collins last term - and I think it will be since she got a big scare even if she won decently. That should be a good pickup opportunity for Democrats but the state may trend right by then. Pickups opportunities for Democrats...

GA (if Perdue wins the runoff)
ME
NC
TX

Pickup opportunities for Republicans...

MI
MN
NH

We're getting to a point with these Senate classes where the polarization if making for very few competitive races. 2024 is the only one where Democrats still have a lot of seats in red/redish states.

Dems really just have three red seats left in the 2024 cycle (and in the Senate as a whole):  WV, MT, and OH.

[MT Treasurer]

Hopefully Cornyn adds some Rio Grande/South Texas counties to his next NUT map.

Anyway, ridiculously early ratings (without even knowing which party controls the White House):

[Figueira]

Hopefully Cornyn adds some Rio Grande/South Texas counties to his next NUT map.

Anyway, ridiculously early ratings (without even knowing which party controls the White House):

If Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, and Illinois aren't safe, I don't think Iowa is either.

[MT Treasurer]

If Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, and Illinois aren't safe, I don't think Iowa is either.

You could make a case for Likely R in IA, yeah, but ultimately I think long-term trends will be more favorable for Democrats in MT/SC/KS than IA.

It’s safe under a Democratic president, though.

[MillennialModerate]

Alabama: Tuberville obviously .

Alaska: Sullivan most likely but I could see an upset

Arkansas: The most dislikable Republican not named McConell or Trump. But alas he wins easily

Colorado: Hickenlooper. Safe Dem

Delaware: Coons runs again. Solid Dem Senator, easy win

Georgia: Opposite of POTUS will win.

Idaho: Safe R

Illinois: Durbin or something other Dem

Iowa: Not conceding this - tossup.

Kansas: Marshall most likely but KC suburbs ...’never know. Likely R

Kentucky: If Beshear is relevant and GOP holds POTUS... maybe? Likely R

Louisiana: Cassidy clearly

Maine: Lean D IMO

Massachusetts: I think Kennedy is likely favored here. Markey was known by a few people and aligned himself with the work latte libs. I feel like far left will subdue itself at that point of the right isn’t so extreme as well. I just feel like with Presley not being an incumbent like Markey was. Kennedy does really well in the big cities. Likely Kennedy if Markey retires but you never know - he may wanna be useless for 6 more years into his 80’s

Michigan: Opposite of POTUS most likely

Minnesota: underwhelming smith win

Mississippi: Demographics shift makes this closer but still...

Montana: It’s a shame cause Bullock would’ve won if someone else was at top of the ticket for the GOP. But now I can’t see anyone being able to win it for Dems. Likely GOP

Nebraska: SASSE is perfect for this state

New Hampshire: Likely D.

New Jersey: Safe D

New Mexico: Safe D

North Carolina: Lean D

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Sage D

Rhode Island: Safe D

South Carolina: Graham. Puke

Tennessee: Most inflexible state ever - Safe R

Texas: True tossup

Virginia: Safe D

West Virginia: Safe R

Wyoming: Safe R

[Figueira]

If Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, and Illinois aren't safe, I don't think Iowa is either.

You could make a case for Likely R in IA, yeah, but ultimately I think long-term trends will be more favorable for Democrats in MT/SC/KS than IA.

It’s safe under a Democratic president, though.

I think people are overreacting to Iowa a little bit. It still voted to the left of all the "safe" Republican states (still waiting on Alaska). Even if the "trends" are better in those other states--Trump won Montana by 16 points, South Carolina by 12, Kansas by 15, Iowa by only 8--which is closer than 2016 (I know, that's still an R trend but not much of one). And Ernst underperformed by a point or so. Iowa is still likely going to be the least R of those four in 2024 and 2028. Is Iowa likely to vote Democratic any time soon? No. But is it suddenly Titanium R? No.

[Xing]

Nope, not even trying to do this yet, especially since some races are still up in the air.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol we are too far away from that, Peter's won't lose and Collins and Tillis are gone