Uhhhh so New York?

[iceman]

States under 95%

Alaska 56
Maryland 80
NJ 80
NY 84
California 87
Illinois 89
Maine 91
Massachusetts 93

Washington too, I believe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

States under 95%

Alaska 56
Maryland 80
NJ 80
NY 84
California 87
Illinois 89
Maine 91
Massachusetts 93

Washington too, I believe.

Vote by mail didn't stop Washington from hitting 96%.

[Torie]

This may be my last high effort post on the forum (some may suggest it is also my first but whatever).

Anyway I project statewide the Dem percentage will increase by about 2% from the absentee ballot count. Some of the absentee ballots included in the spreadsheet will be tossed out because the voter then voted in person for whatever reason, with a small increase for absentee ballots postmarked on election day that are not logged in yet, and so forth. In local races still out that were heavily contested, the Dem percentage gain may be a bit higher because the Dems made a push for absentee ballots (they certainly did in my home county of Columbia because forms to request absentee ballots were sent to were sent to every registered Dem), then were somewhat cannibalized when there was a push to do an early vote in person to make sure the vote was counted or to get counted earlier, and so forth, but I would be very surprised if the shift is more than 3 points for the Dem candidate. So any Pub in NY with a 6 point lead should be in good shape. Any Pub with a 3 point lead or less is probably going down.

[iceman]

Will New York, after all the votes are counted swing to GOP from 2016?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Will New York, after all the votes are counted swing to GOP from 2016?

Torie seems to think so. I disagree.

[Torie]

Will New York, after all the votes are counted swing to GOP from 2016?

It appears that way. I don't know Nathan's reasoning to the contrary. After correcting for partisan affiliation, are absentee voters different from other voters who voted in New York? The other thing is that the percentage of the vote that is absentee has gone way up in New York, but it still is only about 19% of the vote, and it may drop a bit because of cannibalization when the voter showed up to vote in person after mailing in an absentee ballot, and then to add to that, invalidating some of the ballots for other reasons that will be more than the few absentee ballots that show up late with an election day postmark.

Well, I should have made an adjustment to the registration totals for the absentees since that makes the registration breakdown for the votes already counted more Pub. That makes the Dem point shift go from 1.72% to 2.06%, not enough to change the ultimate conclusion.

[iceman]

It was also a bit odd when NYT and DDHQ was showing Westchester having >99% of it's votes counted already and had a total of around 630,000 votes. Was that a glitch?

[Smash255]

It was also a bit odd when NYT and DDHQ was showing Westchester having >99% of it's votes counted already and had a total of around 630,000 votes. Was that a glitch?

The 99% was likely precincts counted, not total vote count

[The Mikado]

New York law prevents counties from actually counting ballots until the deadline for them to be received.

Seriously, who the f**k thinks this is good policy?

Ohio takes in absentees cast before election day and arriving afterwards but is going to drop all of them in one big update on this coming Friday. Totally possible OH adds like 300k votes or so all at once. (Maybe reduce Trump's OH margin from 8 to 6...no more than that, though)

[seb_pard]

I believe there will be many trends that will offset each other
-There will be a swing to GOP in minority-heavy precincts-->Queens, the Bronx and Brooklyn will swing to GOP
-There will be probably a swing to dem in upstate
-Westchester and Nassau will swing to dem, idk about Suffolk
-Manhattan will swing to dem, too gentrified and the % of population with a college degree is very high

In the end I think it will swing to dem

[King of Kensington]

It'll be interesting to see if there's any evidence of a Jewish vote shift in Nassau and Westchester.  Nassau probably has a more right-wing Jewish population than Westchester, as it contains the Five Towns and Great Neck.  Westchester has some Orthodox Jews in New Rochelle and White Plains, but overall it's more of your standard affluent liberal Jewish population.

[n1240]

Will New York, after all the votes are counted swing to GOP from 2016?

It appears that way. I don't know Nathan's reasoning to the contrary. After correcting for partisan affiliation, are absentee voters different from other voters who voted in New York? The other thing is that the percentage of the vote that is absentee has gone way up in New York, but it still is only about 19% of the vote, and it may drop a bit because of cannibalization when the voter showed up to vote in person after mailing in an absentee ballot, and then to add to that, invalidating some of the ballots for other reasons that will be more than the few absentee ballots that show up late with an election day postmark.

Well, I should have made an adjustment to the registration totals for the absentees since that makes the registration breakdown for the votes already counted more Pub. That makes the Dem point shift go from 1.72% to 2.06%, not enough to change the ultimate conclusion.

Does this analysis imply Biden only gains 400k in raw margin off absentee votes? I think it'll be much higher since other/NPA voters voting by mail are much more likely to vote Dem relative to other/NPA voters as a whole, and a decent chunk of the registered GOP will vote Dem too. Could be a similar trend to PA where Trump's vote share is around the same or lower than the share of registered Republicans voting by mail (Trump is at 22.8% of vote among mail-in voters in PA while Republicans made up 23.7% of the returned mail-in vote share). With NYC ballot counts lagging behind (they have about 120k more since that Campbell tweet), I wouldn't be surprised if Biden nets around 1-1.2 million more votes than Trump which would put him close in range to swing the state relative to 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Pretty much every county in New England and the majority in NJ and MD trending toward Biden.  NY is not going to be an anomaly. 

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Some of it will be AOC. Contrary to popular opinion of her being a divine figure in this state, she's detested outside the five boroughs

And the evidence, as expected, reveals this as Republicrat wishcasting.

[Badger]

States under 95%

Alaska 56
Maryland 80
NJ 80
NY 84
California 87
Illinois 89
Maine 91
Massachusetts 93

Wow. Other than Alaska which has so little population, and Maine which was only reasonably strong for Biden, these are all Democrat vote sinks, and generally larger States as well.

Biden's popular vote percentage is going to climb tangibly. I wonder how low Trump's will go?

[Torie]

If Biden gains another 1.2 million margin out of the absentees, that is an over 80% margin. I can see 600,000 as plausible, maybe 700,000 as possible, but that is about it. And maybe 15% of those absentees will not count, mostly because the voter then showed up in person. We shall see shortly.

I don't know at the moment why NY trended Trump a bit at the moment when all the votes are counted. I can speculate, but not now.