Uhhhh so New York?

[JRP1994]

Biden's only leading by about 13 points in NY, which is smaller than his lead in New Jersey & Colorado and about the same as his margin in Illinois

Is this just an issue of outstanding Dem-friendly votes not having been counted yet, or did New York trend pretty firmly R this cycle? 13 points would be the worst Dem margin in NY since Dukakis

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is this just an issue of outstanding Dem-friendly votes not having been counted yet,

Yes, almost certainly.

[seb_pard]

https://twitter.com/GannettAlbany/status/1324773113498898435

[Roll Roons]

New York may be the single worse state in the country for election administration, although California and New Jersey are giving it a run for its money this cycle. We should thank our lucky stars that none of them are swing states. Maybe vote-by-mail shouldn't be permanent post-COVID.

[JRP1994]

Ahhh well this already answers my question then. I assumed so, but I'm still running on an emotional high from not feeling absolutely exhausted for the first time in 4 years

[compucomp]

New York may be the single worse state in the country for election administration, although California and New Jersey are giving it a run for its money this cycle. We should thank our lucky stars that none of them are swing states.

I assume if NY were actually a swing state, its election infrastructure would improve quickly due to public pressure, FL was a complete disaster in 2000 and now it's probably the best.

[psychprofessor]

At least another 1.5 million for D's based on outstanding mail ballots at minimum.

[iceman]

What would be the total number of votes for president in New York this year? Will it reach around 8.5 million? AFAIK, it has never exceeded 8 million before.

[dspNY]

Some of it will be AOC. Contrary to popular opinion of her being a divine figure in this state, she's detested outside the five boroughs

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Eyeballing the current county map and based on my personal knowledge of the state, I'm next to certain Rensselaer, Broome, Essex, Clinton, Nassau, Dutchess, and Saratoga flip, and cautiously confident about Orange, Rockland, and parts of the Mohawk Valley.

[Roll Roons]

Some of it will be AOC. Contrary to popular opinion of her being a divine figure in this state, she's detested outside the five boroughs

Yeah, I'm sure she's absolutely beloved on Staten Island.

[Joe Boden]

New York may be the single worse state in the country for election administration, although California and New Jersey are giving it a run for its money this cycle. We should thank our lucky stars that none of them are swing states. Maybe vote-by-mail shouldn't be permanent post-COVID.

If cali was close and everything else was the sams

[n1240]

New York law prevents counties from actually counting ballots until the deadline for them to be received.

[Alcibiades]

Eyeballing the current county map and based on my personal knowledge of the state, I'm next to certain Rensselaer, Broome, Essex, Clinton, Nassau, Dutchess, and Saratoga flip, and cautiously confident about Orange, Rockland, and parts of the Mohawk Valley.

Are you sure about Nassau and Dutchess? Biden’s trailing by about 1 point with over 10% still to report in both. I’d have thought he’d hold both. Anyway, if your predictions are borne out, then there would be a bizarre amount of county flipping in contrary directions.

[Roll Roons]

New York law prevents counties from actually counting ballots until the deadline for them to be received.

Seriously, who the f**k thinks this is good policy?

[n1240]

Eyeballing the current county map and based on my personal knowledge of the state, I'm next to certain Rensselaer, Broome, Essex, Clinton, Nassau, Dutchess, and Saratoga flip, and cautiously confident about Orange, Rockland, and parts of the Mohawk Valley.

Are you sure about Nassau and Dutchess? Biden’s trailing by about 1 point with over 10% still to report in both. I’d have thought he’d hold both. Anyway, if your predictions are borne out, then there would be a bizarre amount of county flipping in contrary directions.

Pretty sure "flip" here means go to in Biden's column once all results are finished counting.

Looking at abs return stats, I expect all of these counties to flip back to Biden's column.

[Orwell]

Eyeballing the current county map and based on my personal knowledge of the state, I'm next to certain Rensselaer, Broome, Essex, Clinton, Nassau, Dutchess, and Saratoga flip, and cautiously confident about Orange, Rockland, and parts of the Mohawk Valley.

Are you sure about Nassau and Dutchess? Biden’s trailing by about 1 point with over 10% still to report in both. I’d have thought he’d hold both. Anyway, if your predictions are borne out, then there would be a bizarre amount of county flipping in contrary directions.

He means flip from the current map

[dspNY]

Some of it will be AOC. Contrary to popular opinion of her being a divine figure in this state, she's detested outside the five boroughs

Yeah, I'm sure she's absolutely beloved on Staten Island.

You're right about that

[Fuzzy Bear]

I would suggest that the dropoff is due to (A) a suburban backlash against the unchecked leftist criminal violence in NYC (which they don't want in THEIR neighborhood) and (B) an uptick in Jewish support for the Republicans over the issue of Israel.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

New York may be the single worse state in the country for election administration, although California and New Jersey are giving it a run for its money this cycle. We should thank our lucky stars that none of them are swing states. Maybe vote-by-mail shouldn't be permanent post-COVID.

California really improved since the last time, I think. I think we’re at something like 80% counted. I mean, not the greatest, but I think it’s an improvement over last time. A lot of the issues with vote by mail are because some states don’t start processing them until the day of the election. CA’s law was changed so that they could start counting mail-ins earlier. I think that CA had nearly 10,000,000 ballots counted on Election Day (using PST).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

New York may be the single worse state in the country for election administration, although California and New Jersey are giving it a run for its money this cycle. We should thank our lucky stars that none of them are swing states. Maybe vote-by-mail shouldn't be permanent post-COVID.

California really improved since the last time, I think. I think we’re at something like 80% counted. I mean, not the greatest, but I think it’s an improvement over last time. A lot of the issues with vote by mail are because some states don’t start processing them until the day of the election. CA’s law was changed so that they could start counting mail-ins earlier. I think that CA had nearly 10,000,000 ballots counted on Election Day (using PST).

He was gonna say that regardless of how much they've improved counting this year.

Not to mention, Arizona & Nevada are proving this is not a California problem but a regional problem (But CA is still worse since we have more votes or something)

[SInNYC]

New York law prevents counties from actually counting ballots until the deadline for them to be received.

Seriously, who the f**k thinks this is good policy?

I think its a good policy to prevent counting ballots until after the election date (or a day or two after as needed for processing delays), and here's why. NY allows you to vote in person even if you already voted by mail, in which case your mail ballot is voided. This is a good thing since sometimes something happens in the final week that affects your vote (a candidate dropping out due to health reasons, a major scandal, etc.). This also means that you cant start counting until after election day.

Rules need to account for rare events and be aimed for accurate results, not fast results to satisfy people watching the news election night.

Now as far as counting after election day vs counting after mail deadline, you can make an argument either way. NY also does just about everything else wrong, so dont take this as support for other aspects of NY elections.

[Hammy]

New York is in severe need of a revamping of its elections system.

[Alben Barkley]

New York may be the single worse state in the country for election administration, although California and New Jersey are giving it a run for its money this cycle. We should thank our lucky stars that none of them are swing states. Maybe vote-by-mail shouldn't be permanent post-COVID.

Much as I hate to say it now, if every state ran VBM like Florida, it would be no problem.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

States under 95%

Alaska 56
Maryland 80
NJ 80
NY 84
California 87
Illinois 89
Maine 91
Massachusetts 93