Was the AP/Fox News call of Arizona premature?

[bagelman]

People are worried Arizona will be decided by maybe around 5k raw votes for Biden. Sounds like there's room for Trump to pull a reverse Georgia and hold AZ, though hopefully unlikely.

Fox News called it to encourage Trump and his MAGA minions to realize he's lost and begin the path to eventually accepting the result. This is so they can corral Republicans back into supporting more typically conservative candidates. The "liberal media" of NYT/CNN/MSNBC/whatever refused to call it, being very cautious in general in calling states. They still have not called the state.

[BlueSwan]

There shouldn't really be much debate here. It was OBVIOUSLY a premature call and the AP and Foxnews know it. They are just hoping that Biden holds on at this point, which he likely does. But even if Biden doesn't lose more votes from here it was clearly premature as there's no way they could have been confident enough in this to make the call when they did so.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obviously. It's funny how it got called and not Alaska.

[Woody]

I am starting to think that Fox News is just controlled opposition.

[SingingAnalyst]

Biden will win it, by a hair. Still premature.

[Crumpets]

I keep hearing that "they have precinct-level data that we don't." If that's true and it's borne out in the final numbers, then I don't think so. But if it's decided by a couple thousand votes? Yeah. It was premature.

[Granite City]

I keep hearing that "they have precinct-level data that we don't." If that's true and it's borne out in the final numbers, then I don't think so. But if it's decided by a couple thousand votes? Yeah. It was premature.

This is true but Mishkin's defence was based on the Voter Analysis Survey rather than the precinct data, at least that's what he said on Fox. It must have been really bullish on Biden in Arizona compared to the Edison exit polls for the AP to call it. Definitely premature but they'll probably get away with it.

[T'Chenka]

I am starting to think that Fox News is just controlled opposition.

The Marxists have always pulled the puppet strings. You're just noticing this now?

[Non Swing Voter]

yes but it still looks like Biden will win it.

But the fact that FoxNews had Nevada uncalled yesterday while Arizona was called even though there was clearly more confidence in Biden's Nevada win shows that it was in fact premature.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We don’t know yet if the AZ call was premature because we don’t have all the data yet.

However, we can be pretty certain there was something wrong going on at their decision desk because they called NV at the exact same time as PA despite having no new data in NV at that time.

[Horsemask]

Even if Biden ends up winning it, it was absolutely premature. I still want to know why they decided to make the call so early.

[2016]

Even if Biden ends up winning it, it was absolutely premature. I still want to know why they decided to make the call so early.

Absolutely agreed here! Although Biden won the Presidency I'd love to see Trump pulling out Arizona somehow in the end just to teach Arnon Mishkin & his Clowns at the FOX Decision Desk a lesson that you do not call States based on Voter Analysis and with only 73 % of the Vote counted.

That was bad and they know it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

At this point it fairly obviously was, although I still think Biden holds on in the state.

I'm actually emotionally attached to Biden holding on in Arizona, less because of any special fondness for the state and more because 1. the initial call on Tuesday was what made me cautiously confident things would shake out okay and 2. I want Biden to match Trump's EC victory (hopefully even beat it by a hair if there aren't any faithless electors this time).

[ProudModerate2]

I agree with others who say it was premature.
But I do think Biden will take it when all the counting in done and over with (barely).

[bandg]

It shouldn't be forgotten that Fox called a >5 seat Dem gain in the House very early in the evening. Their models were obviously wrong in multiple ways.

[SPQR]

I keep hearing that "they have precinct-level data that we don't." If that's true and it's borne out in the final numbers, then I don't think so. But if it's decided by a couple thousand votes? Yeah. It was premature.

If Biden wins, and I still think that he will, it'll be by 10-15K AT BEST.
Even if you have incredible precint-level data, there's no way you can be that confident on election night, with hundreds of thousands of votes left to count.

[RaphaelDLG]

Yes, but not due to any "pulling of strings" by Rupert Murdoch

[Alben Barkley]

I am starting to think that Fox News is just controlled opposition.

The Marxists have always pulled the puppet strings. You're just noticing this now?

You mean the (((Marxists))) /s

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Still too early, as far as I can tell.

[AGA]

Not if they were right, which seems likely.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Reminds me of networks immediately calling Georgia for Clinton in 1992 even though the margin ended up being 0.6%.

Same with the other <1% states in 2000 not named Florida

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not if they were right, which seems likely.

Being right is definitely going to be how they get away with the premature call, but it doesn't actually justify it.