The New York Times has found its new diner articles,Zapata county

[Badger]

I was skeptical before the election, but I'm convinced now that the Democratic collapse with hispanic voters is an outreach problem. I think the Democratic Party can correct this, but it needs to stop with the denial. Yes, the 2020 primary forced a lot of toxic and unelectable policy positions into the mainstream discussion and I'm certain that didn't help, but it also didn't help that the Party ignored the red flags regarding hispanic support.

The great, fantastic news is that unlike in 2016, the Democratic Party can figure out how to resolve this problem in victory instead of defeat, and I'm optimistic that we can do that.

Yeah, this is going to require some serious getting under the hood. Conservatives crowing that Hispanic supposed cultural conservatism has finally had a light bulb go on over their Collective heads after 40 Years of Democrats running on a pro-choice platform, etc, is kind of laughable.

The big question Democrats have to ask themselves is why did Biden do so much worse than Hillary Clinton 4 years ago? With respect to posters who suggested this, I suspect the fact Tim Kaine is fluent in Spanish isn't even the tip of the iceberg. I doubt one- in 20 persuadable Hispanic voters even knew that. Heck, I don't think I did until reading one of those posts in the last couple days!

The key questions are to what degree was it the following:

1, the Biden campaign just sh**ting the bed in terms of campaign Logistics and Outreach. That would be the easiest answer and the most readily curable, but I fear it's not that simple. Nevertheless, was it the largest part?

2. Particular appeal Trump individually had to certain types of Hispanics? I hate to say it but this seems to be in part true as well. There is no way that simple campaign malpractice could create the type of gargantuan swings we saw in the Miami-Dade Cuban community, or the Rio Grande Valley. Heck as one of the maps in this thread done by Miles shows, Biden lost strength among Urban and Suburban Hispanics in Harris County. There is also at least some preliminary evidence that Trump did extraordinary really well for Republican among black men under 45. Obviously different communities with different voting habits, but it seems to show a general shift of young working-class men similar to what's happened with whites the past few elections. Was it that Trump in his own bizarre Big Mouth demagogue way gave voice to some of these individuals who felt they were otherwise being ignored by standard politicians like Biden? Again, one has to wonder why these people turned out so strongly for Hillary Clinton four years ago, though.

3. Was it the issues/policy? With the swings in part because of Biden, despite his support of fracking personally, being seen as part of the Green New Deal party and proclaiming in a debate how it was necessary to transition away from oil and gas? Did Trump sending out covid relief checks with his name on it help? Do Southwest rural Hispanics have a lot more sympathy and connection to the US border patrol and ICE than asylum seekers being Turner away en masse by the Trump Administration? Again, if so, how do we explain Clinton doing so well in these regions and communities four years ago?

It's not enough just to say a little of everything. The easiest, and therefore most unlikely answer is a combination of one and two. Do a much much better job in terms of Outreach and campaign Logistics as was apparently done four years ago, and hope that whatever generic far right-wing Republican wins the nomination for years from now is not going to carry the same unique appeal to working-class minorities that Trump had(at least for a republican) . 3 is obviously the hardest bullet to bite, but again if Progressive views on immigration and climate change / fossil fuels are poison among these communities, Clinton would have been shellacked here just as badly for years ago.

Now that I framed the debate without offering any complete answers, anyone else want to offer their observations?

[lfromnj]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-bemoans-lackluster-latino-turnout-for-biden-been-sounding-the-alarm


AOC did sound an Alarm but I highly doubt she had critical appeal to Latino swing voters
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1134136091450236928?

I don't think the word Latinx is an end all for Hispanic/Latino voters but it certainly does make the Democrats seem out of touch. Even if Biden(wisely) decided to avoid using the word most D politicians have started to use it.

The tweets from a Puerto Rican resident of the Bronx might have very little sway to rural RGV tejanos.

Currently random Republicans are tripling their Bronx vote from 2016. It could be errors but I wouldn't be shocked to see solid swings in the Bronx too. Its just no one will notice it because well the Bronx will still be 80% or whatever D and the county doesn't flip. The RGV had the largest swings of course and the most visible ones but other counties are having them too. Its happening in inner-city LA.
I'm not saying latinx is the actual issue I am saying its more a symptom of the White twitter culture even many Latino Democrat politicians are falling for.

[BaldEagle1991]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/politics/vanessa-guillen-family-donald-trump/index.html

I know there’s many reasons, but I think was one of the few reasons some Hispanics may have swung for Trump. One of the few bright spots he did was reach out to the family of slain US soldier Vanessa Guillen. Her murder in Fort Hood was a huge news story in Hispanic media and in the Hispanic community.

[TopShelfGoal]

I have a theory about why Trump performed better than expected with these voters (and to a lesser extent Black voters). I think it is covid policy related. Black/Latino folks were more likely to be economically impacted by covid lockdowns and stricter control on what is open and closed, the jobs reports showed that black/latinos were disproportionally more likely to be unemployed as the aftermath of covid than whites. I think these voters may have seen Biden as a more "pro-lockdown" candidate and voted for Trump due to perceived economic impact on them. This is slightly supported by downballot democrats doing slightly better than Biden in RGV.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I have a theory about why Trump performed better than expected with these voters (and to a lesser extent Black voters). I think it is covid policy related. Black/Latino folks were more likely to be economically impacted by covid lockdowns and stricter control on what is open and closed, the jobs reports showed that black/latinos were disproportionally more likely to be unemployed as the aftermath of covid than whites. I think these voters may have seen Biden as a more "pro-lockdown" candidate and voted for Trump due to perceived economic impact on them. This is slightly supported by downballot democrats doing slightly better than Biden in RGV.

Specifically schools closing

[Sbane]

I was skeptical before the election, but I'm convinced now that the Democratic collapse with hispanic voters is an outreach problem. I think the Democratic Party can correct this, but it needs to stop with the denial. Yes, the 2020 primary forced a lot of toxic and unelectable policy positions into the mainstream discussion and I'm certain that didn't help, but it also didn't help that the Party ignored the red flags regarding hispanic support.

The great, fantastic news is that unlike in 2016, the Democratic Party can figure out how to resolve this problem in victory instead of defeat, and I'm optimistic that we can do that.

Yeah, this is going to require some serious getting under the hood. Conservatives crowing that Hispanic supposed cultural conservatism has finally had a light bulb go on over their Collective heads after 40 Years of Democrats running on a pro-choice platform, etc, is kind of laughable.

The big question Democrats have to ask themselves is why did Biden do so much worse than Hillary Clinton 4 years ago? With respect to posters who suggested this, I suspect the fact Tim Kaine is fluent in Spanish isn't even the tip of the iceberg. I doubt one- in 20 persuadable Hispanic voters even knew that. Heck, I don't think I did until reading one of those posts in the last couple days!

The key questions are to what degree was it the following:

1, the Biden campaign just sh**ting the bed in terms of campaign Logistics and Outreach. That would be the easiest answer and the most readily curable, but I fear it's not that simple. Nevertheless, was it the largest part?

2. Particular appeal Trump individually had to certain types of Hispanics? I hate to say it but this seems to be in part true as well. There is no way that simple campaign malpractice could create the type of gargantuan swings we saw in the Miami-Dade Cuban community, or the Rio Grande Valley. Heck as one of the maps in this thread done by Miles shows, Biden lost strength among Urban and Suburban Hispanics in Harris County. There is also at least some preliminary evidence that Trump did extraordinary really well for Republican among black men under 45. Obviously different communities with different voting habits, but it seems to show a general shift of young working-class men similar to what's happened with whites the past few elections. Was it that Trump in his own bizarre Big Mouth demagogue way gave voice to some of these individuals who felt they were otherwise being ignored by standard politicians like Biden? Again, one has to wonder why these people turned out so strongly for Hillary Clinton four years ago, though.

3. Was it the issues/policy? With the swings in part because of Biden, despite his support of fracking personally, being seen as part of the Green New Deal party and proclaiming in a debate how it was necessary to transition away from oil and gas? Did Trump sending out covid relief checks with his name on it help? Do Southwest rural Hispanics have a lot more sympathy and connection to the US border patrol and ICE than asylum seekers being Turner away en masse by the Trump Administration? Again, if so, how do we explain Clinton doing so well in these regions and communities four years ago?

It's not enough just to say a little of everything. The easiest, and therefore most unlikely answer is a combination of one and two. Do a much much better job in terms of Outreach and campaign Logistics as was apparently done four years ago, and hope that whatever generic far right-wing Republican wins the nomination for years from now is not going to carry the same unique appeal to working-class minorities that Trump had(at least for a republican) . 3 is obviously the hardest bullet to bite, but again if Progressive views on immigration and climate change / fossil fuels are poison among these communities, Clinton would have been shellacked here just as badly for years ago.

Now that I framed the debate without offering any complete answers, anyone else want to offer their observations?

I don't think outreach is the main problem. Turnout actually increased in the RGV and they voted for Trump, though many didn't bother voting downballot. This is a great example of Democrats thinking higher turnout will help them but it really doesn't. These sorts of people are going to be vulnerable to conspiracy theories and I have heard concerns from Hispanic people that Ebola might come to the US along with the caravan of immigrants from Central America. While that may sound nonsensical to us, many people do fear such things. They also don't relate to these Central Americans as most of the people along the border and in Texas generally are either from Mexico or have been there for generations. Most of the border patrol is also composed of people from these communities and they might not have liked how they were demonized by some groups.

[BaldEagle1991]

Also I probably do not want to bring up religion as a reason, but maybe there’s a growing % of Hispanic Evangelicals in the US.

[lfromnj]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/politics/vanessa-guillen-family-donald-trump/index.html

I know there’s many reasons, but I think was one of the few reasons some Hispanics may have swung for Trump. One of the few bright spots he did was reach out to the family of slain US soldier Vanessa Guillen. Her murder in Fort Hood was a huge news story in Hispanic media and in the Hispanic community.

Trump did pretty bad in Bell county, worse than Cruz even.

IMO some of the swing is temporary although the area itself probably does have pro-life/pro gun democrats who the GOP never paid attention to really. Starr county hasn't even had a Republican run in local offices for a 100 years!.

[GoTfan]

Seems like Biden shouldn't have made those oil comments.

Yeah I'd preface any sort of Green New Deal/green jobs/renewable energy pitch with "We'll always need oil as a raw product for making products we all use everyday", before talking about finding alternatives for using it as an energy source.

Well we're not always going to have it.

[BaldEagle1991]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/politics/vanessa-guillen-family-donald-trump/index.html

I know there’s many reasons, but I think was one of the few reasons some Hispanics may have swung for Trump. One of the few bright spots he did was reach out to the family of slain US soldier Vanessa Guillen. Her murder in Fort Hood was a huge news story in Hispanic media and in the Hispanic community.

Trump did pretty bad in Bell county, worse than Cruz even.

IMO some of the swing is temporary although the area itself probably does have pro-life/pro gun democrats who the GOP never paid attention to really. Starr county hasn't even had a Republican run in local offices for a 100 years!.

Vanessa Guillen & her family are from Houston/Harris County, and Trump overperformed with Hispanics there.

The Bell County underperformance might be more of a reaction to Trump's bombshell story of him calling US servicemen/women "losers and suckers" maybe?

Although I have a feeling Starr County might have GOP county judge in 2023.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Zapata County is going to become the next Atlas meme after Elliott County, rest assured.

It's a shame we don't do that for ancestrally Republican places though. Riley County Kansas memes when

Because Riley County flipping wasn't the result of rural folk abandoning the party of their forefathers. It's because the presence of KSU has altered the demographics of the area. Otherwise Riley would be voting 70%+ Republican like all the counties surrounding it.

[compucomp]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-bemoans-lackluster-latino-turnout-for-biden-been-sounding-the-alarm


AOC did sound an Alarm but I highly doubt she had critical appeal to Latino swing voters
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1134136091450236928?
I don't think the word Latinx is an end all for Hispanic/Latino voters but it certainly does make the Democrats seem out of touch. Even if Biden(wisely) decided to avoid using the word most D politicians have started to use it.

The tweets from a Puerto Rican resident of the Bronx might have very little sway to rural RGV tejanos.

Tweets from AOC might actually convert Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida from soft D voters into R voters.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I was skeptical before the election, but I'm convinced now that the Democratic collapse with hispanic voters is an outreach problem. I think the Democratic Party can correct this, but it needs to stop with the denial. Yes, the 2020 primary forced a lot of toxic and unelectable policy positions into the mainstream discussion and I'm certain that didn't help, but it also didn't help that the Party ignored the red flags regarding hispanic support.

The great, fantastic news is that unlike in 2016, the Democratic Party can figure out how to resolve this problem in victory instead of defeat, and I'm optimistic that we can do that.

Yeah, this is going to require some serious getting under the hood. Conservatives crowing that Hispanic supposed cultural conservatism has finally had a light bulb go on over their Collective heads after 40 Years of Democrats running on a pro-choice platform, etc, is kind of laughable.

The big question Democrats have to ask themselves is why did Biden do so much worse than Hillary Clinton 4 years ago? With respect to posters who suggested this, I suspect the fact Tim Kaine is fluent in Spanish isn't even the tip of the iceberg. I doubt one- in 20 persuadable Hispanic voters even knew that. Heck, I don't think I did until reading one of those posts in the last couple days!

The key questions are to what degree was it the following:

1, the Biden campaign just sh**ting the bed in terms of campaign Logistics and Outreach. That would be the easiest answer and the most readily curable, but I fear it's not that simple. Nevertheless, was it the largest part?

2. Particular appeal Trump individually had to certain types of Hispanics? I hate to say it but this seems to be in part true as well. There is no way that simple campaign malpractice could create the type of gargantuan swings we saw in the Miami-Dade Cuban community, or the Rio Grande Valley. Heck as one of the maps in this thread done by Miles shows, Biden lost strength among Urban and Suburban Hispanics in Harris County. There is also at least some preliminary evidence that Trump did extraordinary really well for Republican among black men under 45. Obviously different communities with different voting habits, but it seems to show a general shift of young working-class men similar to what's happened with whites the past few elections. Was it that Trump in his own bizarre Big Mouth demagogue way gave voice to some of these individuals who felt they were otherwise being ignored by standard politicians like Biden? Again, one has to wonder why these people turned out so strongly for Hillary Clinton four years ago, though.

3. Was it the issues/policy? With the swings in part because of Biden, despite his support of fracking personally, being seen as part of the Green New Deal party and proclaiming in a debate how it was necessary to transition away from oil and gas? Did Trump sending out covid relief checks with his name on it help? Do Southwest rural Hispanics have a lot more sympathy and connection to the US border patrol and ICE than asylum seekers being Turner away en masse by the Trump Administration? Again, if so, how do we explain Clinton doing so well in these regions and communities four years ago?

It's not enough just to say a little of everything. The easiest, and therefore most unlikely answer is a combination of one and two. Do a much much better job in terms of Outreach and campaign Logistics as was apparently done four years ago, and hope that whatever generic far right-wing Republican wins the nomination for years from now is not going to carry the same unique appeal to working-class minorities that Trump had(at least for a republican) . 3 is obviously the hardest bullet to bite, but again if Progressive views on immigration and climate change / fossil fuels are poison among these communities, Clinton would have been shellacked here just as badly for years ago.

Now that I framed the debate without offering any complete answers, anyone else want to offer their observations?

I don't think the Dems should compromise on #3, but they definitely need to work on framing those policies in ways that would appeal to people who aren't part of elite educated PMC/activist circles. Which goes in hand with #1- not taking nonwhite communities for granted, and understanding what their actual policy preferences are.

Seems like Biden shouldn't have made those oil comments.

Yeah I'd preface any sort of Green New Deal/green jobs/renewable energy pitch with "We'll always need oil as a raw product for making products we all use everyday", before talking about finding alternatives for using it as an energy source.

Well we're not always going to have it.

Yeah but you need to find a way to make rank-and-file oil workers (i.e. voters) go along with it. And if we stop burning oil as fuel, and do a better job recycling, we'll have more to go around for making plastics until bioplastics become economically viable.

[mileslunn]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-bemoans-lackluster-latino-turnout-for-biden-been-sounding-the-alarm


AOC did sound an Alarm but I highly doubt she had critical appeal to Latino swing voters
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1134136091450236928?

I don't think the word Latinx is an end all for Hispanic/Latino voters but it certainly does make the Democrats seem out of touch. Even if Biden(wisely) decided to avoid using the word most D politicians have started to use it.

The tweets from a Puerto Rican resident of the Bronx might have very little sway to rural RGV tejanos.

Currently random Republicans are tripling their Bronx vote from 2016. It could be errors but I wouldn't be shocked to see solid swings in the Bronx too. Its just no one will notice it because well the Bronx will still be 80% or whatever D and the county doesn't flip. The RGV had the largest swings of course and the most visible ones but other counties are having them too. Its happening in inner-city LA.
I'm not saying latinx is the actual issue I am saying its more a symptom of the White twitter culture even many Latino Democrat politicians are falling for.

That is a red mirage.  New York is super slow for counting mail in ballots so it is where Pennsylvania was early Wednesday morning when Trump still had a double digit lead.  Trump will not get 43% in New York, probably closer to 35%.  Likewise Rockland county and maybe Clinton county only ones I see him flipping and even then still might go Democrat.  Staten Island will go for Trump but not over 60%.  Like in most states, New York has mostly only counted in person votes not mail in and in person votes are always way more GOP than mail in. 

[lfromnj]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-bemoans-lackluster-latino-turnout-for-biden-been-sounding-the-alarm


AOC did sound an Alarm but I highly doubt she had critical appeal to Latino swing voters
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1134136091450236928?

I don't think the word Latinx is an end all for Hispanic/Latino voters but it certainly does make the Democrats seem out of touch. Even if Biden(wisely) decided to avoid using the word most D politicians have started to use it.

The tweets from a Puerto Rican resident of the Bronx might have very little sway to rural RGV tejanos.

Currently random Republicans are tripling their Bronx vote from 2016. It could be errors but I wouldn't be shocked to see solid swings in the Bronx too. Its just no one will notice it because well the Bronx will still be 80% or whatever D and the county doesn't flip. The RGV had the largest swings of course and the most visible ones but other counties are having them too. Its happening in inner-city LA.
I'm not saying latinx is the actual issue I am saying its more a symptom of the White twitter culture even many Latino Democrat politicians are falling for.

That is a red mirage.  New York is super slow for counting mail in ballots so it is where Pennsylvania was early Wednesday morning when Trump still had a double digit lead.  Trump will not get 43% in New York, probably closer to 35%.  Likewise Rockland county and maybe Clinton county only ones I see him flipping and even then still might go Democrat.  Staten Island will go for Trump but not over 60%.  Like in most states, New York has mostly only counted in person votes not mail in and in person votes are always way more GOP than mail in.  

Note I didn't say triple their percentage, I said triple their raw votes. Ik there is a red mirage but I fully expect the Bronx to swing R and there is a decent chance Trump could net votes there.