When will the GOP win again?

[sting in the rafters]

Whenever they realize the strategy of using tax cuts to attract suburban voters and social issues to rally the base just isn't enough to win anymore.

[EastwoodS]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

If you read the whole post you’d see I listed Trump’s general conduct since 11/3 as well as a likely recovered economy as other reasons for a Dem victory in 2024.

That’s if you actually believe the economy will recover, I don’t.

[YE]

2024 given how narrow Biden’s win was and reservations that he’ll be able to expand his coalition with groups that matter significantly when it comes to the EC.

[Chips]

Bump because why not.

[Xing]

Gun to my head, 2028 if Biden runs again, 2024 if he doesn’t. I think their map will look a lot like 2016, but without GA and possibly AZ. I only see them winning a state Clinton won if it’s a blowout.

[Non Swing Voter]

Whenever they realize the strategy of using tax cuts to attract suburban voters and social issues to rally the base just isn't enough to win anymore.

GOP actually raised taxes on a huge chunk of suburban voters last time by capping SALT.  It was basically a giveaway to red states and counties, which already had contributed far less to the economy/tax base.

[S019]

I really think it depends on the candidate, for instance, Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem share many of Trump's weaknesses, but not as many of his strengths. Nikki Haley, on the other hand, may not appeal to the Rust Belt as much, but can surely stop some of the bleeding for Republicans in places like AZ, probably do well enough in Las Vegas/Clark to win NV, also perhaps improve enough in the WOW region to win Wisconsin. I think the idea that Republicans wouldn't turn out for Nikki Haley, because she's an Indian woman is a bit overrated. However, I'll just say that if current party coalitions don't change, it becomes hard to see a GOP victory past 2032/2036, assuming they win with their current coalition sometime before then. Final prediction: either they win one term in 2028 and then get turfed out due to demographic change in the Sunbelt or they blow 2028 or demographic change in the Sunbelt occurs sooner than expected, and as a result, they need to reinvent their party. Not sure which right now, but I think they do have a shot in 2024, but with how difficult it is to oust incumbents, Biden should be favored, and I think Harris is a lot less weaker than many think. However, by 2028, I'd expect fatigue to set in, especially across the swingy Midwest, and if states like TX and AZ have not undergone enough urban growth to save the Democrats, it'd be tough to see them win.

[Non Swing Voter]

I really think it depends on the candidate, for instance, Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem share many of Trump's weaknesses, but not as many of his strengths. Nikki Haley, on the other hand, may not appeal to the Rust Belt as much, but can surely stop some of the bleeding for Republicans in places like AZ, probably do well enough in Las Vegas/Clark to win NV, also perhaps improve enough in the WOW region to win Wisconsin. I think the idea that Republicans wouldn't turn out for Nikki Haley, because she's an Indian woman is a bit overrated. However, I'll just say that if current party coalitions don't change, it becomes hard to see a GOP victory past 2032/2036, assuming they win with their current coalition sometime before then. Final prediction: either they win one term in 2028 and then get turfed out due to demographic change in the Sunbelt or they blow 2028 or demographic change in the Sunbelt occurs sooner than expected, and as a result, they need to reinvent their party. Not sure which right now, but I think they do have a shot in 2024, but with how difficult it is to oust incumbents, Biden should be favored, and I think Harris is a lot less weaker than many think. However, by 2028, I'd expect fatigue to set in, especially across the swingy Midwest, and if states like TX and AZ have not undergone enough urban growth to save the Democrats, it'd be tough to see them win.

This analysis is right but the problem with nominating a Nikki Haley type is that most of the areas where she'd probably improve wouldn't flip a lot of electoral votes.  I could see her doing better in Colorado and Virginia for instance, but not enough to win the states.  She probably does worse than Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania.  That's probably ballgame right there.

[TodayJunior]

I look forward to see them try to piddle something together with what little they still have to work with. After all, let’s not forget Afghanistan was their fault to begin with (Dubya), so if they go further Trumpian or revert back to neocondom, they lose either way.

If either coalition can be successfully resuscitated and actually win a majority (let alone a plurality) of the votes of Americans, then Santa Claus does in fact exist.

That said, they really just need to reinvent themselves from the ground up, or disband and form a new opposition party; otherwise, we’ll have a one-party state, and that’s not good for democracy. But right now, the GOP in its current form is not a serious governing organization.



If this post ages like milk, well, throw it out in the garbage.

[TodayJunior]

I look forward to see them try to piddle something together with what little they still have to work with. After all, let’s not forget Afghanistan was their fault to begin with (Dubya), so if they go further Trumpian or revert back to neocondom, they lose either way.

If either coalition can be successfully resuscitated and actually win a majority (let alone a plurality) of the votes of Americans, then Santa Claus does in fact exist.

That said, they really just need to reinvent themselves from the ground up, or disband and form a new opposition party; otherwise, we’ll have a one-party state, and that’s not good for democracy. But right now, the GOP in its current form is not a serious governing organization.



If this post ages like milk, well, throw it out in the garbage.

After the 2022 midterm results, I stand by my initial prediction. They're doubling down hard and on their way to nowhere!

[iceman]

As long as Trump’s grip on the party persists and MAGA candidates are still running lose everywhere, I don’t think the GOP can win again in the near future seeing how toxic their brand is.

[TodayJunior]

As long as Trump’s grip on the party persists and MAGA candidates are still running lose everywhere, I don’t think the GOP can win again in the near future seeing how toxic their brand is.

I swear some of the maga candidates like mastriano were so bad (he lost the WHITE vote!), you’d think they were Dem plants. A one party state isn’t healthy for a republic. GOP, please get your crap together. I want to have a real choice again.

[Red Wall]

They can still win in 2024 but I'd have them as slight underdogs right now.

If Biden wins re-election in 2024 then republicans are favored in 2028.

[Ferguson97]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

[EastwoodS]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

“Is democracy at risk” Democrats won that by 2 according to exits polls. You’re cute tho

[Ferguson97]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

“Is democracy at risk” Democrats won that by 2 according to exits polls. You’re cute tho

Alright so I see you're still at the denial stage of grief in denying why you guys lost the midterms.

Feel free to double down on this ahead of 2024. Good luck!

[DS0816]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

Coming into the midterm elections of 2022, both houses of Congress were already established for control with the Democratic Party.

Beginning in January 2023, the U.S. House will be under control with the Republican Party.

That is not a loss by the 2022 Republican Party.

[Ferguson97]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

Coming into the midterm elections of 2022, both houses of Congress were already established for control with the Democratic Party.

Beginning in January 2023, the U.S. House will be under control with the Republican Party.

That is not a loss by the 2022 Republican Party.

They're going to have a net loss in Senate and governorships, lost a ton of state legislatures, and have a razor-thin majority in the House.

[Vosem]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

Coming into the midterm elections of 2022, both houses of Congress were already established for control with the Democratic Party.

Beginning in January 2023, the U.S. House will be under control with the Republican Party.

That is not a loss by the 2022 Republican Party.

They're going to have a net loss in Senate and governorships, lost a ton of state legislatures, and have a razor-thin majority in the House.

This discussion is reminiscent of 2016, but with the parties reversed. In 2016, Republicans took a trifecta in a shock upset, but failed to note that the headline ballot was D+2; they acted like they had an enormous mandate and were immediately punished by the electorate.

In 2022, in a shock upset, Democrats “had a net gain in Senate and governorships, and gained a ton of state legislatures”, but failed to note that the headline ballot was R+3. If they act like they got an enormous mandate, they’ll be punished by the electorate in a similar way.

(Anyway, to answer the question that this thread is about, I’d say the odds of either 2024 or 2028 being a Republican presidential victory are something like 3 out of 4, considering history.)

[DS0816]

UPDATE:

After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.

Lol, is it always January 7th in your world? If you really think that the insurrection is the main reason for a GOP lose in 2024, then I already know the GOP is winning in 2024. Lol.

This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.

Coming into the midterm elections of 2022, both houses of Congress were already established for control with the Democratic Party.

Beginning in January 2023, the U.S. House will be under control with the Republican Party.

That is not a loss by the 2022 Republican Party.

They're going to have a net loss in Senate and governorships, lost a ton of state legislatures, and have a razor-thin majority in the House.

As I already mentioned: For Congress, the Democrats—also with the presidency in their column—came into the 2022 midterm elections with both houses. Come January 2023, they will no longer have the U.S. House of Representatives. This means the 2022 Republicans won majority pickup. So, this is not a Republican loss; it is a Democratic loss. It is also a Republican gain.

[Xing]

Since it’s looking like 2024 will be Biden vs. Trump again, 2028 seems like a fairly safe bet.

[Frodo]

Since it’s looking like 2024 will be Biden vs. Trump again, 2028 seems like a fairly safe bet.

Especially with such a long list of anti-Trump candidates who are likely to run.  Regardless, I expect the economy to be humming along quite nicely after a brief recession early next year with inflation down to near 2019 levels by the 2024 election cycle, so President Biden should win re-election quite handily against either Trump or DeSantis, with Democrats reclaiming the House. 

[sg0508]

Until the Republicans make some way with Millennials and Gen Z, they're not winning anything.