NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why not the father?  He's only 3 years older than Biden.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans would be better off with someone untainted by Washington or lobbying experience, and John Sununu is basically the exact antithesis of that. Surely there must be a halfway sane state legislator or businessman waiting in the wings, especially given the size of the NH Legislature?

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/klandriganul/status/1460980113487675406?s=21

[Sir Mohamed]

The Sununu name and his brother's coattails would carry him through the finish line.

Tell that to incumbent Senator Evan Bayh.

Not sure this is a fair comparison. IN is more reddish at federal (and state) level than NH is blue.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Republicans would be better off with someone untainted by Washington or lobbying experience, and John Sununu is basically the exact antithesis of that. Surely there must be a halfway sane state legislator or businessman waiting in the wings, especially given the size of the NH Legislature?

How exactly are they supposed to win a primary?

[JMT]

This is interesting: some of the leading potential Republican candidates for Senate are meeting today, in hopes of avoiding a divisive primary.

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1468333636520972292?s=21

[2016]

This is interesting: some of the leading potential Republican candidates for Senate are meeting today, in hopes of avoiding a divisive primary.

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1468333636520972292?s=21

Smart Play! Hopefully they can come up with something!

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1468358127770873868?s=20

[free my dawg]

I would be very, very surprised if Morse ran. He's passed on plenty of good opportunities for a run for office in the past, and he also has a business of his own to manage.

Sununu Jr. or Edelblut are probably their best bets, despite Edelblut's failures as Ed Secretary. As I've said before, the NHDP's failure to make Sununu's education policy an issue is the single largest misstep I've seen in New Hampshire politics. He's ultimately not very well known, and the NHDP's case of terminal #Resistance Brain hasn't cleared up yet. If he's able to define himself as a smiley Nice Guy like Sununu he wins.

I could see the wave dragging a C-lister like a Bill Binnie or a Kevin Smith across. Guinta is too corrupt to win, Corky is a meme, and Bolduc is a joke who would immediately get triaged.

[free my dawg]

Either way, my vote has not changed. After my sister's return to waitressing and recent events, if anything I'm more enthusiastic. My primary (and general) vote against Hassan will be the most enthusiastic vote I've casted since my primary vote for Bernie.

[Not Me, Us]

Either way, my vote has not changed. After my sister's return to waitressing and recent events, if anything I'm more enthusiastic. My primary (and general) vote against Hassan will be the most enthusiastic vote I've casted since my primary vote for Bernie.

Any serious non-Hassan Democratic candidate who could jump in? Wikipedia says the only guy running against her is a former GOP state rep.

[free my dawg]

Either way, my vote has not changed. After my sister's return to waitressing and recent events, if anything I'm more enthusiastic. My primary (and general) vote against Hassan will be the most enthusiastic vote I've casted since my primary vote for Bernie.

Any serious non-Hassan Democratic candidate who could jump in? Wikipedia says the only guy running against her is a former GOP state rep.

Probably not a high profile one. The NHDP has always managed to keep party unity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Either way, my vote has not changed. After my sister's return to waitressing and recent events, if anything I'm more enthusiastic. My primary (and general) vote against Hassan will be the most enthusiastic vote I've casted since my primary vote for Bernie.

If you're voting against Hassan because she voted against the Minimum wage the Rs I'd they get control won't pass a Minimum wage bill they were told to pass a Minimum wage during the Obama yrs and Boehner adamantly refused so an R in control won't do anything on the  Minimum wage

Rs are trying to repeal all the Covid mandated that Biden put in place, they're gonna pretend Covid isn't gonna exist again

[free my dawg]

Democrat or Republican, I'm not supporting anyone who supports paying food service workers 19th century wages. Sorry not sorry.

[2016]

The Democrats heading into a full-blown obvilion in 2022 in New Hampshire and elsewhere and they might not need an A-Lister or B-Lister to defeat Senator Hassan
https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-new-nhjournal-poll-finds-biden-bbb-underwater-with-granite-state-voters/

Biden has a 43/57 Favorable/Unfavorable Rating; BBB Bill is being opposed by Granite State Voters 45-52.

A jaw-dropping 70 % of of New Hampshire Voters say the Country is off the wrong track among other things.

[MT Treasurer]

^And yet, even in this poll Republicans only lead the GCB by a mere plurality of five points (47-42). No gender crosstabs released (which makes any NH poll less interesting/reliable) but I suspect there’s a sizable gender gap, with more female than male voters 'undecided.' NH women are easily one of the most inflexible D groups in the nation, and in a federal race (esp. one with a female D and a male R opponent), they will be a bulwark for Democrats even in a GOP wave year. If this were a true swing state, this race would be Lean R given Hassan's/Biden's approval/favorability numbers, but again, NH women aren’t particularly persuadable, and much of the male vote is similar to the Hispanic vote in FL in that Democrats have an unusually high floor compared to other states with a similar demographic make-up (that might change next year, but I’m not going to bet on NH men outvoting NH women).

[SnowLabrador]

It seems like there's a good chance Hassan loses even without Sununu running, which goes to show just how dismal things look for Democrats right now.

[free my dawg]

I can't find any records of a firm like this, there;s no crosstabs or demographic information, and they apparently did this for a Republican site.

I've been consistent about a C-lister like Bill Binnie being able to win, but this poll is trash. JUNK IT!

[MT Treasurer]

New NH poll which shows Democratic prospects in the state improving substantially is quite something:

Biden approval: 49/50 (-1) (was -9 before)

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Hassan favorability: +3 (43% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable) (was -10 in November)

Among NH women: +43 (64/21)
Among NH men: -38 (21/59)

Yes, you saw that right: Those are 83- and 81-point gender gaps, respectively. MS-type polarization, guys.

Favorability of GOP candidates:

Don Bolduc: -15 (18/33)
Corky Messner: -33 (8/41)
Chuck Morse: -17 (8/25)
Frank Edelblut: -25 (7/32)
Frank Guinta: -31 (5/36)
Bill Binnie: -10 (5/15)
Kevin Smith: -9 (3/12)

Sununu approval is down to +5 (52/47). It was +19 in November.

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/683/

I am shocked.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It seems like there's a good chance Hassan loses even without Sununu running, which goes to show just how dismal things look for Democrats right now.

Lol Hassan is ahead of all opponents, SUNUNU like Laxalt was up 3/4 pts within the margin of error

Despite what MT Treasure says CCM isn't DOA and if Hogan runs against Van Hollen Da will still win because Tom Perez is running for Gov and defeat Steeli

That's why  SUNUNU didn't run he still wanted a political career if he lost his career would end if Hogan loses he can run for Prez in 24

[I’m not Stu]

Will the GOP nominee be an extremely toxic anti-establishment Tea Party candidate?

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1480316349998145536?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Much better than lunatic Bolduc. Let's see what happens here.

[2016]

Morse running! Good! I knew he would after Sununu passed on the Race.

[free my dawg]

This is a legit shock. I didn't even expect him to run for anything - he's been talked about as a candidate for higher office for forever and has passed every time. I didn't expect him to run, let alone for Senate.

I have very mixed feelings about the entire thing. He's reasonable enough to get dragged across the finish line. He's more of an old-school fiscal conservative instead of a Trumpy type. The guy hasn't pushed the anti-vax crap like Packard or the Executive Council have.

The real red flag is that in his announcement article he's not really running with a clear plan. For a long-established fiscal policy wonk with 20 years of experience, you'd expect him to have a clear set of positions. It's all just generic platitudes with specifics promised "by the end of the month".