NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[MT Treasurer]

Do you think Sununu could have beat Shaheen in 2020? The ticket-splitting was ginormous. I think him waiting until 2022 was the right call.

Definitely not, and waiting until 2022 (assuming he decides to run) was probably the best political calculation her ever made. No Republican was going to win a Senate race in NH in 2020, whether against Shaheen or not. You need some combination of a very favorable environment, pitch-perfect messaging/campaigning, and an underwhelming D opponent to win a federal race in NH as a Republican at this point. Take away even one of those factors and it’s an uphill battle, take away two and you don’t have a prayer.

[GALeftist]

Wait, wait, wait. You're telling me that the Republicans think their best recruit is a guy who just won statewide by like 30 points??? Next you'll tell me that FDR was a successful politician

[Xing]

imo nh votes more r than mo if sununu runs but more d than wa if he doesnt.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

imo nh votes more r than mo if sununu runs but more d than wa if he doesnt.

Uh oh.  Xing broke his SHIFT key again. 

[Canis]

Obviously, Sununu is a great recruit for them he just won the state by 32 points while Biden and Shaheen Carried the state by 7 and 16. As pointed out by many other users ticket-splitting in a Federal race is much different than a state race. NH isn't a safe D state its Likely at best though in a R favorable national environment Sunnunu won't need that much ticket-splitting to win. Still, if he runs he makes this race a tossup. It's a big If though governors normally don't like becoming a member of a 100 seat body from being chief executive of their state. Even if Sunnunu runs this race is still winnable for the D's they need to make it clear to the voters of the state that if he wins McConnell regains power. We are a long way from the election and anything is possible at this point.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Sununu's a strong candidate? Wow! Next you'll tell me SirWoodbury's too scared to leave the forum for a year!

[smoltchanov]

Sununu's a strong candidate? Wow! Next you'll tell me SirWoodbury's too scared to leave the forum for a year!

Denying the truth and putting head into sand is, surely, NOT a good politics...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last Change poll had Hassan at 55 percent Approvals

[Brittain33]

Sununu's a strong candidate? Wow! Next you'll tell me SirWoodbury's too scared to leave the forum for a year!

Denying the truth and putting head into sand is, surely, NOT a good politics...

He's not denying that Sununu would be a strong candidate, he's ridiculing Sir Woodbury taking a victory lap and starting a new thread to boast about a banal assessment that everyone already agrees on.

[smoltchanov]

Sununu's a strong candidate? Wow! Next you'll tell me SirWoodbury's too scared to leave the forum for a year!

Denying the truth and putting head into sand is, surely, NOT a good politics...

He's not denying that Sununu would be a strong candidate, he's ridiculing Sir Woodbury taking a victory lap and starting a new thread to boast about a banal assessment that everyone already agrees on.

It's another matter then. I understood it differently...

[Pollster]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so worried about Hassan, SHAHEEN was in a similar position in 2014 and she achieved 50 percent on Election day and she beat Scott Brown
Shaheen won because Maggie Hassan win the Gubernatorial Election

Molly Kelly is considering another run for Gov she can have the same effect like in 2014

And last Change poll had Evers and Nelson leading and HASSAN at 55 percent Approvals

[MT Treasurer]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

I generally agree that winning a federal race in NH is an uphill battle for any Republican (although that really has little to do with Hassan being some strong incumbent — she isn’t), but I think you and others are seriously underestimating how competitive Nevada will be in 2022. I don’t buy for a second that Cortez Masto (or Mark Kelly, for that matter) will be heavily favored even in a very favorable environment for the party.

Besides, I think Sununu is certainly more skilled than Ayotte at reading his electorate and cultivating an independent/moderate/bipartisan brand. You don’t win statewide in NH by a 2-to-1 margin as a Republican if you don’t possess some major electoral/messaging skills. He also has a history of outperforming his pre-election polling even in D-leaning years, so I wouldn’t underestimate him if I was a D strategist. Joe Manchin isn’t the only elected official capable of that game.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

I generally agree that winning a federal race in NH is an uphill battle for any Republican (although that really has little to do with Hassan being some strong incumbent — she isn’t), but I think you and others are seriously underestimating how competitive Nevada will be in 2022. I don’t buy for a second that Cortez Masto (or Mark Kelly, for that matter) will be heavily favored even in a very favorable environment for the party.

Besides, I think Sununu is certainly more skilled than Ayotte at reading his electorate and cultivating an independent/moderate/bipartisan brand. You don’t win statewide in NH by a 2-to-1 margin as a Republican if you don’t possess some major electoral/messaging skills. He also has a history of outperforming his pre-election polling even in D-leaning years, so I wouldn’t underestimate him if I was a D strategist. Joe Manchin isn’t the only elected official capable of that game.

SCOTT BROWN WAS LEADING SHAHEEN AND SHAHEEN BEAT HIM IN 2014, HE WAS THE SAME AS Sununu a popular moderate but he will get scrutinized once he enters just like Scott Brown was in 2014, Brown lost as was a popular moderate like Sununu

[Pollster]

Similar to Nevada, I have to imagine this race isn't particularly appealing to top-tier GOP candidates, as defeating the Democrat would be challenging in a highly nationalized race even for the best possible Republican (presumably Sununu) in a favorable climate, but do remember that winning would also immediately set him up for an even tougher campaign in 2028 in what would in all likelihood be a far more challenging national environment, not to mention after six years of casting tough and probably unpopular votes, in a state that is for all intents and purposes Dem-leaning.

Sununu could probably be governor for as long as he wants, which I'm sure he knows. No doubt this is going to be a tough recruitment for the national party.

I generally agree that winning a federal race in NH is an uphill battle for any Republican (although that really has little to do with Hassan being some strong incumbent — she isn’t), but I think you and others are seriously underestimating how competitive Nevada will be in 2022. I don’t buy for a second that Cortez Masto (or Mark Kelly, for that matter) will be heavily favored even in a very favorable environment for the party.

Besides, I think Sununu is certainly more skilled than Ayotte at reading his electorate and cultivating an independent/moderate/bipartisan brand. You don’t win statewide in NH by a 2-to-1 margin as a Republican if you don’t possess some major electoral/messaging skills. He also has a history of outperforming his pre-election polling even in D-leaning years, so I wouldn’t underestimate him if I was a D strategist. Joe Manchin isn’t the only elected official capable of that game.

I don't necessarily think Nevada will be an easy hold for D's - rather I think that the state's top-tier Republicans will be more attracted to the statewide row offices for both strategic (being able to run in a more targeted way against COVID regulations in a state practically wiped by them, among other things) and logistical (not having to run for re-election in a presidential year) reasons.

I agree with you that Sununu would probably be favored in a match-up today, though I do think you're far too hard on Hassan in general. My interest right now is seeing how he navigates the decision between safety or a modest gamble. Alternatively, his foot-dragging could be entirely for personal gain - I'm sure McConnell, Scott, and others will make more enticing promises the longer he holds out.

[S019]

Either one Sununu or Ayotte will easily win if this is anywhere close to a normal midterm, NH is no where no blue enough to survive a national R wave and the state is also quite elastic and is prone to wild swings. If 2022 as expected is an R tsunami, there's basically no way Hassan wins unless the Republican has a massive scandal.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Either one Sununu or Ayotte will easily win if this is anywhere close to a normal midterm, NH is no where no blue enough to survive a national R wave and the state is also quite elastic and is prone to wild swings. If 2022 as expected is an R tsunami, there's basically no way Hassan wins unless the Republican has a massive scandal.

This is one hell of an overrecation.
R tsunami based on what? A 23 candidate special all-party primary?

Hassan is only in trouble because maybe Sununu and his hold on galaxy brained ticket splitters.

[S019]

Either one Sununu or Ayotte will easily win if this is anywhere close to a normal midterm, NH is no where no blue enough to survive a national R wave and the state is also quite elastic and is prone to wild swings. If 2022 as expected is an R tsunami, there's basically no way Hassan wins unless the Republican has a massive scandal.

This is one hell of an overrecation.
R tsunami based on what? A 23 candidate special all-party primary?

Hassan is only in trouble because maybe Sununu and his hold on galaxy brained ticket splitters.

Based on what normally happens in midterms

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Either one Sununu or Ayotte will easily win if this is anywhere close to a normal midterm, NH is no where no blue enough to survive a national R wave and the state is also quite elastic and is prone to wild swings. If 2022 as expected is an R tsunami, there's basically no way Hassan wins unless the Republican has a massive scandal.

This is one hell of an overrecation.
R tsunami based on what? A 23 candidate special all-party primary?

Hassan is only in trouble because maybe Sununu and his hold on galaxy brained ticket splitters.

Based on what normally happens in midterms

Normally happens in midterms?

Did the 2018 Dems, 2010 R's, or 2006/08 Dems literally ATTEMPT A COUP?!?!?!? No, you will not be seeing a 40+ swing like previous elections. Even the 23 candidate primary showed a neutral environment, which is similar to what 2020 was like. The Republicans will likely take back the house, but only because gaining a few seats would do so. Plus, gerrymandering will be less hard on dems since the state legislatures aren't as bad as 2010. 

[Real Texan Politics]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

Scott Brown lost in 2014 whom was just as popular as Sununu a popular moderate, Sununu isn't assured of anything

[SnowLabrador]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

You don't remember what happened to Scott Brown in 2014, he was a popular moderate and leading Shaheen and he Lost in an R plus 5 and we are in a Neutral Environment as of now, but it can be a blue wave, relax, it's 500 days til Election, Hassan in last poll was at 50% Approvals as n a Change poll

[coloradocowboi]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

You don't remember what happened to Scott Brown in 2014, he was a popular moderate and leading Shaheen and he Lost in an R plus 5 and we are in a Neutral Environment as of now, but it can be a blue wave, relax, it's 500 days til Election, Hassan in last poll was at 50% Approvals as n a Change poll

He was also a carpetbagger running against a more likable candidate. I don't think it's lean R flip at all right now, but if its 2014 conditions then it absolutely is.