Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[philly09]

YouGov has him at 45/52 with RV and 42/50 with Adults.  Rassy has him with 45/53 with LV.  Morning Consult has him at 44/53 with registered voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doesn't matter much until 24 but D's are doing fine Beshear, Presley and Stein and Tester are doing well enough

All we need is a OH poll but we won't get one it that OH poll shows Brown down by 10 pts I would Consider moving OH but Ds are doing so well outside of FL and TX Tester up by 6 in red MT, Presley up by 4 and Beshear up by 9 and Stein up 2 and Manchin is leading all non Justice opponents and Justice might not win the primary

I can see Kunce up 4 against Hawley, Nixon a populist won in MO, and Brown up 5 against Dolan

But can see Cruz and Scott and Rs winning TX, FL and IA up 7/12 pts that's why I have it 346 not 416

But cutting Brown not Manchin or Sinema with Gallego is like losing the S and the RS hasn't defeated a single D incumbent in the S since 2018

[pbrower2a]

Count on the infamous image of Hawley showing his fist pump as the sedition was going on no matter who the D opponent is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are waiting in Quinton Lucas to declare for Gov , this is an upset but it's the same type of race in 2016 Jason Kander v Blunt and if Presley is upsetting Reeves because Reeves unlike Barbour is unpopular among Blks due to racial Gerrymandering it's a winnable race


2018 it was no Covid Environment or insurrection, when Hawley won and McCaskill, Galloway and Valentine were female not men, Nixon got elected to MO

Cruz whom is an insurrection is Cuban and enjoys Latino appeal like Menendez and Rubio do and DeSantis, Abbott and Justice have their states on R lockdown

[LostInOhio]

What, if anything, could boost his approval ratings above 50% before November 2024?

The only thing I could think of is if Russia fully retreats from Ukraine and Zelensky directly credits Biden for it. Even then I’m not sure. Part of me feels that Biden could literally authorize funding that leads to a cancer cure and not get back above 50%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be between 303 and 335 EC votes the basic 303 map and if Brown wins OH and NC

PPP has Biden plus 4 51/47

[Sir Mohamed]

What, if anything, could boost his approval ratings above 50% before November 2024?

The only thing I could think of is if Russia fully retreats from Ukraine and Zelensky directly credits Biden for it. Even then I’m not sure. Part of me feels that Biden could literally authorize funding that leads to a cancer cure and not get back above 50%.

If that happens, the bump would just fade away within weeks. We live in 24 hour newscycles.

[President Johnson]

What, if anything, could boost his approval ratings above 50% before November 2024?

The only thing I could think of is if Russia fully retreats from Ukraine and Zelensky directly credits Biden for it. Even then I’m not sure. Part of me feels that Biden could literally authorize funding that leads to a cancer cure and not get back above 50%.

Given what he accomplished legislatively, the jobs market, cooling inflation, the leadership in Ukraine as well as around the world and the Republican gross incompetence and their lack of will to seriously govern, Biden should actually be headed for a landslide reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 52/48 in the PPP, Marist polled right and that is a wave insurance map as said on my signature this is Biden the one that is Bill Clinton proteje and served 40 yrs in S RS aren't defeating BIDEN, and they keep saying 2020 was illegitimate because blk people voted but 2000 was legitimately with whites putting Bush W ahead and Rs reaped the benefit and got Judicial restraint activist Alito on SCOTUS

Voting rights does exactly what Marshall Crt did to slavery with Judicial review invalidated Apartheid  the Federalist weren't the GOP party today they were Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe or Chris Shays like Ben Franklin was from NH, expanded Fed Rights

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 to 343 map AZ, GA as Wave insurance to get to 303 and OH and NC or TX for 343

Depends on Colin ALRED but John Love can win too

[Progressive Pessimist]

What, if anything, could boost his approval ratings above 50% before November 2024?

The only thing I could think of is if Russia fully retreats from Ukraine and Zelensky directly credits Biden for it. Even then I’m not sure. Part of me feels that Biden could literally authorize funding that leads to a cancer cure and not get back above 50%.

Given what he accomplished legislatively, the jobs market, cooling inflation, the leadership in Ukraine as well as around the world and the Republican gross incompetence and their lack of will to seriously govern, Biden should actually be headed for a landslide reelection.

Key-word: "should."

It's not going to happen. Let's just be happy that he has the potential to win at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Indictments are coming for Guiliani that's why I said make sure you make a wave insurance map you don't know how this thing is gonna turn out and it's blk people voting it's not just white people people like Brown, or Kunce wouldn't even bother if they had zero chance


Remember Harold was DoA in 2006 and he almost won and that was Bush W R party not Trump he would won TN against Marsh
A Blackburn

[pbrower2a]

Biden seems to be settling again around 45-46%

YouGov/Economist has him 45/52 this week (with a rather GOP-y sample too)
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gg0t2njevs/econTabReport.pdf

IBD, NBC, Fox, YouGov, etc. all finding him around 45%. We'll see what the SOTU does.

He isn't (or wasn't) in campaign mode. At this stage, 45-46% is OK. I'd like to compare Biden to Obama and Trump at similar times in their first terms.

Biden is 6 pts ahead of Trump that's a wave Eday Obama won by 6 52/46 over McCain and won IN, NC, OH, IA, FL obviously we aren't gonna win IA but AZ, GA ARE D base Battleground and NC, OH, FL are wave insurance

As time passes, the sorts of things that can destroy a Presidency seeking re-election typically go from possibility to non-events. It's much like an insurance policy: you pay $1200 a year for car insurance and each month the premiums expire as you avoid claims. So you avoid encounters with car thieves, drunk drivers, speeders, red-light runners, and debris. That $1200 now belongs to the insurance company, which earned it.

You would be surprised how much damage a loose paint tray can do if it causes a tire blow-out. $4200 between damage and the cost of a rental car. I wish that State Farm Insurance could rack the fellow who abandoned that paint tray. $500 fine for littering? I thought that was largely for casting off smoldering cancerettes.

So President Biden successfully avoids the usual disasters that cause Presidential failure -- like scandals involving sex or corruption,  the Iranian hostage situation, the Crash of 1929, a bungled response to a natural or commercial disaster, or some military debacle that he fails to resolve fast.  To make a long story short, if Donald Trump could come close to getting re-elected, then Joe Biden is on the way.

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

Current map prediction;

(I know people use the opposite here but I associate Blue for AL GORE who was my favorite major party general election candidate in my lifetime)

Which makes me think are Al Gore and Joe Biden close friends? 

[Sir Mohamed]

^^ Press X for doubt. Biden is the most likely person to be POTUS on Jan. 21, 2025, but I don't think TX is there yet.

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

^^ Press X for doubt. Biden is the most likely person to be POTUS on Jan. 21, 2025, but I don't think TX is there yet.

The RGV is not going to be that bigly for Trump again.  You have to remember that they were pissed as hell about businesses shuttering over COVID.  Nor will they make the mistake of sending Kamala The Disconnected to talk to them again.  If the RGV normalizes just a little all the new Democrats in Dallas and Houston will get him just over the edge.  

Remember, Trump IS the establishment now.  And Texans hate these DC types because they kinda want to be their own country with the capital at Jerry Jones house.

[wbrocks67]

Dark Brandon rises!

Marist:

Adults: 46/46
RV: 49/45

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2099/02/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202302171218.pdf

[wbrocks67]

And YouGov/Economist!

RV is 48/50

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lt3qbl33wm/econTabReport.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling once these indictments come out despite Docugate Biden Approvals will skyrocket

What is Trump saying that 2020 is stolen not 2000 and Rs want blk votes that Blk people voted in 202o to put Biden in WH it's illegitimate but whites put Bush W in WH it's legit, no RS complained when Bush W won and he went on vacation when he was warned about Bin Laden determine to attack US

Are we targeting blk populated states that include Red and blue states KS 22, TN Harold Ford 2006 he lost but it was a moral victory he turned out the vote for Webb and McCaskill in surrounding states

All blk populated states are battlegrounds because Scott and Cruz aren't winning by 20 it's gonna be 5 pts that's why GA was flirting with red and now will be a solid blue state DeSantis was only leading by 5 and now we have Carter sympathy

Jean Carnahan upset Ashcroft in 2000 in red MO because it was a 5 point race and Kunce is gonna have a 5 pt race not 15 pt race because he isn't Trudy Valentine

It's hard to get 415 between 303/350 but with these indictments I am gonna be scoreboard watching it's not a 2016 303 map

RS haven't put one plan up to combat inflation only Hunter laptop like Boehner didn't raise the minimum wage when we didn't have Labor shortages and had Benghazi now business are hurting for employees

I want Rents and gas and clothing cost to go down Nike shoes Jordans aren't 100 they are with inflation 240 to 300

Where is the R budget nowhere Biden already put up his Budget

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/1628450377610788865

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, from the gold standard Marist poll too, one of the most accurate in 2022!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, from the gold standard Marist poll too, one of the most accurate in 2022!

LoL it's 2 yrs from Eday users are so anxious over Biden v the RS because it's a Prez Eday Biden won't lose because Docugate Trump has told us a lie Eday 2020 was stolen because Blks and D's voted Biden in but 2000 wasn't stolen when whites and Rs vote Bush W in Bush W had 33 percent Approvals due to 9 percent unemployment at end of his administration Gore or Kerry would of done better

Trump has to unite the country with the stolen Eday he divides and that won't get him elected because there are more D's 65/60 M than Rs

He united the country only in 2016 due to running with Bush W Jeb, now he is running on Maga QAnon

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/1628450377610788865

Makes sense. Republicans see the party elevating classist scum like DeSantis and Kemp, and figure Biden is a safer option.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said Trump, Ron Johnson and Desantis all ran with rationale Bush W RS like Rubio, Scott Walker and Jeb 2016/22 and this time we see MAGA as what's it's worth it's not the Bush W party anymore it's MAGA

Even Vance got into office in a Bush W R DeWine when he was able to beat Ryan

Dolan v Ryan and Kunce v Hawley and Baldwin v Maga R isn't a recipe for success it's Prez Eday not a Midterm Gallego ran to break the Filibuster anyways we have 2 yrs for Eday but D's after Docugate are getting more confident again due to GA indictments

Trump was impeached twice anyways we don't need a criminal prosecution to set the record straight on how corrupted Trump is we voted against him in 2020 81/75 M

DeSantis ran in 22 with Bush W R Rubio that's why he overperform by winning by 20 Scott isn't gonna win by 25 and neither is Dolen over Brown, that's why it's upset potential in FL, OH and MO we may not sweep 300/50 EC votes is enough for a blue wave to manifest a Secular Trifecta in blue and red blk battleground states FL, OH and NC have substantial blk population that's why IA was eliminated it has 97 percent White

TX is a long shot and should be ignored unless Colin ALRED runs and so far John Love is running

[Sir Mohamed]

Dark Brandon rises!

Marist:

Adults: 46/46
RV: 49/45

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2099/02/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202302171218.pdf

Late SOTU bump?

Perhaps we can get a few extra points with his recent trip to Ukraine.