Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544361329326231553

Probably a big reason why Biden's approvals are so low.

Progressives hate him, but they sure as hell aren't voting Republican.

Epic fail to have an approval rating below 50% among people under 35 WHO WANT DEMOCRATS TO CONTROL CONGRESS.

A lot of these ppl wouldn’t have approved of Biden regardless

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 2-5, 1500 adults including 1345 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 15 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

RV:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 17 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 43, R 40.  NOTE: no change from last week is shown because YouGov has discovered an error in their prior handling of the GCB question.  The earlier surveys have had this question removed with the following note: "The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Silver already did an article on 9/10 Americans believe country on wrong track and the 303 blue wall, Obama win reelection when the majority of voters 40/55 believed the country is on the wrong track, it's a 304  map anyways with wave insurance for the H but not a single poll has come out favored the Rs since Roe


Likely Scenario R plus 10 in H and inverse of 2018 52)48 D S 303 map
Optimistic 218 DH and 55)45 S Secular Trifecta

We are gonna see Biden Approvals sux because of wrong track but D's doing well in state by state and GCB

All D incumbents in Govs and S in 303 states Pritzker, Whitmer, Shapiro Evers and Warnock, Hasan, CCM and Kelly and Fetterman and Barnes and Rs are at 40


But, we know Rs are gonna use this to justify an R plus 4/9 Eday

[Sir Mohamed]

But do they expect him to do? Ok, he could so more student loan debt through executive action, but anything elese he hasn't delivered is because of congressional realities.

Or do they just want him replaced with a younger president?

You're assuming they're aware of this though. Remember, most people think POTUS is more powerful than they really are.

That's part of the story for sure; people also just know that "Dems control congress", so they expect the legislative branch just being a rubber stamp for Biden.

Other part of the story is that Biden through both his age and his lack of charisma such as Obama, (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, does hardly excite young people. Not sure whether they care that much about his experience and foreign policy successes. Young people that just started a job or struggle to even find one with good pay are heavily affected by inflation, affordable housing and the rising cost of living in general. The federal govt so far as pretty much failed them if we're being honest. Sure, this is not Biden's fault in particular, but most people think the prez is the federal govt in person and therefore hold him accountable for anything that happens or doesn't happen.

That doesn't mean they're supporting the GOP, as the poll correctly says. Doesn't even have to be; if millennials and Gen Z doesn't turn out on election day, Dems have an uphill battle to climb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But do they expect him to do? Ok, he could so more student loan debt through executive action, but anything elese he hasn't delivered is because of congressional realities.

Or do they just want him replaced with a younger president?

You're assuming they're aware of this though. Remember, most people think POTUS is more powerful than they really are.

That's part of the story for sure; people also just know that "Dems control congress", so they expect the legislative branch just being a rubber stamp for Biden.

Other part of the story is that Biden through both his age and his lack of charisma such as Obama, (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, does hardly excite young people. Not sure whether they care that much about his experience and foreign policy successes. Young people that just started a job or struggle to even find one with good pay are heavily affected by inflation, affordable housing and the rising cost of living in general. The federal govt so far as pretty much failed them if we're being honest. Sure, this is not Biden's fault in particular, but most people think the prez is the federal govt in person and therefore hold him accountable for anything that happens or doesn't happen.

That doesn't mean they're supporting the GOP, as the poll correctly says. Doesn't even have to be; if millennials and Gen Z doesn't turn out on election day, Dems have an uphill battle to climb.

The Ukraine war and gas prices are a drag on Biden Approvals it's a303 map anyways and Trump isn't winning in 24 and crack the blue wall the question is always the H, we lead in all tye 393 swing states anyways



Biden can get in front all he wants abd talk about policy but as long as gas prices and a war is going on WC voters not minorities are gonna be angry

Likely R plus 10 in H and 52)48 D S
Optimistic 218 DH and Filibuster proof S

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1544693421503283201

Another poll showing that while groups may disapprove of Biden, that isn't translating to how they're voting downballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Biden low Approvals every poll including TX which shows Abbott only up 5 bad news for Rs Tina Kotek and Betsy Johnson are leading in OR and not Drazen anymore and Rs still haven't lead even in WI, PA and GA and GA Gov is tied 48 in a single blue state swing poll and Rs are so confident and some DOOMER D's of a 241RH and 54RS thats never gonna happen with 3% percent unemployment even with 8.5 inflation .


Only happens in 10% 2o10 unemployment and GCB has D's up 5 47/42

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1544693421503283201

Another poll showing that while groups may disapprove of Biden, that isn't translating to how they're voting downballot.

The bigger question is whether those leaning Democratic or answering these polls that disapprove of Biden actually end up in the voting place or cast their ballot via mail or whether they just sit the midterms out. Republicans unfortunately are more energized to vote to own the libs and show Brandon the middle finger.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1544693421503283201

Another poll showing that while groups may disapprove of Biden, that isn't translating to how they're voting downballot.

…this is actually a TERRIBLE poll for us.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Midterm although it's a 303 map, partisan trends don't matter that much in Midterms as in Prez Elections 2018 we lost TN, TX, MO, FL, ND and IN and won AZ, WVA, MT and OH and SUNUNU and Hoga won and and DeSantis defeated a socialist

Andy Beshear won with 2/3rds R state legislature and we have D Govs in WI, MI and PA with R State legislature Ryan, Beasley, Demings, Crist and Beto and perhaps Franken can be elected with R state legislature while the states send D's to Gov, Sen and H that's been the case always Rs own state legislature but not so much Govs, Prez and Congress

Just remember D's only win 20% out of 50% white vote or 44% and 30/50% or 85% of the black and brown vote, D's are heavily reliant on Minorities,, virtually all of the 45% of course he R vote is white vote because whites own 800K mansions in the suburbs

Especially FL Crist, Demings and Ryan are incumbents, not incumbent Senators but Reps that's already in Congress that wants to move up like Schumer did, Schumer said after Rs blocked Voting Rights he will do everything to get Warnock, Ryan, Demings, Beasley and Kelly elected even without Voting Rights


Wave insurance seats will help us win the H, don't tell that to Sir Muhammad whom grossly overpredicted Biden margin in 2o20 with FL and NC he thinks like Election Guy with R talking pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ha, Tim Ryan is leading by nine I said Tim Ryan is gonna win somuch for Biden low Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Franken only down 49/44 this is it we are gonna have an Election and determine the fate of the Filibuster we need a D Trifecta to push thru bold change that's why I still donate to Ds after I stopped Tim Ryan is my candidate but I will start Donating to FRANKEN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I noticed that we have 150 days till EDay and everyone an R gets a lead it's very infrequent, it's safe R, no it's not the same rules apply with D leads it's still 150 days till EDay and Walker and Kemp and Drazen leads in swing states very narrowly where are the other states the R leads, nowhere except narrow leads on IA and TX and Tied in OH and FL and NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gas prices are falling

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1546474687357763584

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter about Approvals it matters about state by state polls and Rs are losing in most of them

[2016]

It doesn't matter about Approvals it matters about state by state polls and Rs are losing in most of them

No, Republicans are winning in most of the State Polls unless it's a fake Poll by a Democratic aligned SUPERPAC.

The same Poll that supposedly has Ryan up 9 in OH has Republicans leading Democrats by 8 Points on the GCB Nationally. Both can't be right! Ohio ain't voting to the left of the Nation.

That's why I am saying: Trash both Polls in the Bin!

[BG-NY]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1546474687357763584

Nightmare poll. inb4 red avys claim you can write off low approvals from blacks/hispanics/18-29 because they're democrat-aligned groups that will get in line in 2022 and 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is leading Trump 44/41 too, like I said it's a 303 map anyways likely scenario R plus 10 in H 52/48 or 53/47 WI, PA and OH and Lose GA and D's net gain MA, NH, MD and AZ, KS, GA and FLGovs  Tossup 24/28 D Govs and 52/48 Sen 53/47 and 217/230 R H or 218 D H

It's VBM not same day voting it too several hrs, days and weeks like last time to count Rs want instant gratification it won't be in VBM look how long PA R primary went and some of these races can be tight especially OR Gov Johnson or Kotek with Ron Wyden on the ballot will win not Drazen

It can take a long time for Johnson or Kotek to be declared the winner all of WAS, OR and CO and UT are VBM

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1546474687357763584

Nightmare poll. inb4 red avys claim you can write off low approvals from blacks/hispanics/18-29 because they're democrat-aligned groups that will get in line in 2022 and 2024.

Lol if you must know Biden is getting 76% of the D vote that's not low Approvals for Blks and Latinos why is Vance losing in OH 44/41 12% Afro Americans votes and NEWSOM won Blk and Brown vote in recall I am blk mysey

If we lose the H it will be 230R votes 12 seats is nothing to get back in 24 when Biden is on the ballot in two yrs and he will veto any bill.coming out of RH anyways 230R majority was wiped out from 2017/219 in 2018 when Ds only needed 12 SEATS

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1546524662204715015

Additionally, Biden is deeply underwater in several other competitive House districts:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/11/house-gop-deeper-in-dem-terrain-00044988

The result is a House map that has expanded to an uncomfortable place for Democrats. Survey data obtained by POLITICO shows the president underwater by double-digit margins in 11 districts he carried.

[TheReckoning]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1546474687357763584

This really does show how little approval ratings actually matter in terms of who votes for who in an election. Biden here is performing higher among seniors than the youth by a 40 point margin, but we all know that in both the midterms and the general, the youth are going to vote strongly more Democratic that seniors.

[BG-NY]

Funny thing about all these abysmal polls, is if the GOP establishment installs trash like DeSantis, Biden is in a stronger position than 2012 Obama.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are garbage 76% of the D vote is Appeoval of Biden and 30% of the 50% or 85% of the black and brown vote is Latino and BLK not only that Newsom is a DLC D but he won LATINO and Blk vote it's garbage I am blk myself Vance is losing 44/41 because Blk vote is 12% and he is getting 1/3% while DeWine will get 6% of 12 that's a difference of a 51/49% Election

Blks don't like tax cuts for the super Rich

If Blks disappointed in Biden why did Elder, Irvin and Craig crater, Walker may won he's a celebrity like OJ, Conservative men did like OJ before the killings, every other Blk man cratered that's not Disapproval of Biden you can post all you want on Biden Approvals but we are winning the 303, map look at the state by states

That's why Ds are on the verge of winning OH, Wzi and PA in case WARNOCK loses and NC is competetive too it's only 3

[Ferguson97]

I accept that these polls are abysmal, but I don't really get why people are acting like the approvals will exactly match the vote share. Democrats are obviously not going to lose the GCB by 27 points.