Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Matty]

Omg today is awful for Biden polling

Record low in CNBC 38-53

Record low Reuters 41-53

Tied for record low qpac

[ElectionsGuy]

Wbrocks trying to explain why a -24 poll is actually good for Biden:

It's obviously just reliable Democratic voters who are saying they disapprove of Biden because he gets unfair treatment from the media.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One relatively bright spot for Biden today:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 9-12, 1500 adults including 1303 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 20 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (nc)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 42 (nc), R 39 (+1)

[wbrocks67]

Omg today is awful for Biden polling

Record low in CNBC 38-53

Record low Reuters 41-53

Tied for record low qpac

To be far, a lot of this polling is all over the place. Reuters had 45/50 last week which was his best #s in a while, so do I think he really went from -5 to -12 in a single week?

Q-pac has been low for a while, and all I can say is that it's obviously at the very extreme level for him, but it has been for a while. 538 average is at -11, so sorry if I take Q-pac with a grain of salt as an outlier at -24.

Not to mention, Biden's numbers with young people have been bad no doubt, but 21/58 approval with 21% undecided is just a terrible sample. We all know it's not really that low.

Q-pac also has white college voters still at a +10 approval for him, with white non-college at like 20/67, so I'm sure that's also where some of that 21/58 is coming from if they're over-weighting them.

[wbrocks67]

One relatively bright spot for Biden today:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 9-12, 1500 adults including 1303 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 20 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 37 (nc)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 42 (nc), R 39 (+1)

This is why we throw it all in the average.

We get "record low" Q-pac but then the highest YouGov for him in RV in a while.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden should send troops to Ukraine and (imo) either get a huge win when Putin backs down, or just say screw it and start a war. I don’t wish the second but since Americans aren’t grateful for the economic growth and recovery from Covid, it’s time we remind them what hardship looks like.

Lol Biden said he is not starting a war with Russia, we only got rid of Commu Milosevic because Yeltsin was Prez and Putin was PM, Putin is Prez until 2035


Even if he did send Troops the war would not be over it will be like Afghanistan, it won't be quick war

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden at 33 approval in Qpac yikes

Garbage poll

[Hollywood]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Our Stimulus dollars are already going to Ukraine of Rs get the H there isn't gonna be any BBB, Student Loan Discharge the wages went up from 10. to 15. and people still want Student loan discharge they can work two jobs

It's silliness the Govt isn't gonna give 55M people Student loan discharge, only one way it will happen is if there is a D Trifecta, then the Filibuster will be gone, I hope that happens but it's not guaranteed but D's are doing alot better in state by state polls then these Approvals

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden at 33 approval in Qpac yikes

Garbage poll

[Person Man]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

It would be something if Republicans won the GCB in GA by 7 and won nationally by 4 or 5. That probably then means that Biden can’t win without Georgia in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

It would be something if Republicans won the GCB in GA by 7 and won nationally by 4 or 5. That probably then means that Biden can’t win without Georgia in 2024.

Lol are you serious that D's can't win without GA WI, PA, VA MI, NV, NH 276 Tammy Baldwin is on the Ballot and Ruben Gallego is challenging Sinema Substitute GA with WI and AZ that's 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Biden has awful Approvals Pbower Everyday is nowhere to be found really since the Ukraine War, D's are the one rebuttal of Rs Pbower used to do

[philly09]

YouGov April 9-12
RV 1303

46% Approve (+3)

49% Disapprove (-1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Even now so all those Doomsday prediction throw them out it's probably gonna be an 8 seat loss in the H and a 51)48 Senate pending GA but it's VBM a blue wave can happen by October

More Divided Govt is the Fav but we will see what happens with Turnout

I remember in March Heidi Headlamp came on MSNBC news and said the D's are in for ride awakening in The H not the Senate but that's because of TX/FL Biden getting rid of Title 42 doesn't help


We have won Red states KS, KY, NC Gov, LA Gov OH Sen, and GA Sen and AZ  SEN and took them away from Rs, but for FL/TX/ IA

We are making the sake play for MO, OH, LA Sen and GA Gov and Sen and AZ

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna do that Badly we own the NPVI, there are many Ds reregistering to vote there is no lack of enthusiasm among D's like Media act like it is

Many more states including CA, NY, IL and many blue states are voting the same way in Midterms as for Prez this isn't 2010/2014 when MI, WI and PA had Supermajority in state Legislature for Rs as a check on Obama Prez they are much more D now so an R plus 6 Environment is not gonna happen

[Hollywood]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

It would be something if Republicans won the GCB in GA by 7 and won nationally by 4 or 5. That probably then means that Biden can’t win without Georgia in 2024.

Right now, it seems like Republicans have a 5-6 point lead in the GA GCB, but there are a lot of undecided Independents in Urban and Suburban areas that seem to be breaking for the Rs, as well as a handful of D voters that have declared that they probably won't vote.  I think it's pretty alarming that so many Lefty Polls have Democrats losing the GCB, because they usually under-estimate Republicans, and pretty accurately indicate their level of support.  Ds could lose nationally by the margin you indicated.

Also, I agree that Biden can't win in 2024 without GA, but I'm not sure Biden even win another election.  It appears that inflation is going to continue all the way into Fall of this year, and many are predicting a peak by November.  It's the top issue for almost 50% of the country.  And it doesn't help that this administration can't seem to get a handle on any situation. 

[Person Man]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

It would be something if Republicans won the GCB in GA by 7 and won nationally by 4 or 5. That probably then means that Biden can’t win without Georgia in 2024.

Right now, it seems like Republicans have a 5-6 point lead in the GA GCB, but there are a lot of undecided Independents in Urban and Suburban areas that seem to be breaking for the Rs, as well as a handful of D voters that have declared that they probably won't vote.  I think it's pretty alarming that so many Lefty Polls have Democrats losing the GCB, because they usually under-estimate Republicans, and pretty accurately indicate their level of support.  Ds could lose nationally by the margin you indicated.

Also, I agree that Biden can't win in 2024 without GA, but I'm not sure Biden even win another election.  It appears that inflation is going to continue all the way into Fall of this year, and many are predicting a peak by November.  It's the top issue for almost 50% of the country.  And it doesn't help that this administration can't seem to get a handle on any situation. 

The really interesting thing about dissatisfaction caused by inflation is that if it really takes enough of a hold to defeat Biden in 2024, it is going to be hell to get it back under control. The next 10 years will either be like 1980-1990 or 1990-2000 depending on what happens with inflation in the next 1-2 years.

There's long term plusses and minuses to both sides in any scenario. In the former scenario, it would pretty much give all the keys to the castle to the Republicans for at least one cycle. They get the 2025-2027 to set the debate for the next 10-15 years the way Obama did and Reagan before him. However, given polarization and the task that they would have in taming inflation, they probably, just like Reagan, suffer heavily downballot. This would also give Democrats a chance to experiment with the direction of their party and cast off the shackles of the old Clintonian leadership (Biden, Schumer, Pelosi, Clyburn, Hoyer et al). That would be good for everyone.

If Biden does get re-elected, it would signify that nothing has really changed. Republicans will still be able to further Orbanize the 25 state they control and the 5 others they almost control and Democrats would still somehow manage to stay in the rain shadow of the Clinton generation even as that generation would then be in their 80s and 90s. At least we would still be in the Great Moderation.

[Senator Incitatus]

NEVADA (Suffolk, 4/2 - 4/6)

35% Approve
59% Disapprove (-24)

Back in April 2018, I rated Michigan-Wisconsin-Pennsylvania as Lean D for 2020. Was I being too optimistic at the time? I'm still not sure. I'm considering rating Nevada as Lean R for 2024 right now. Have I shifted from being overly optimistic about Democratic Party candidate's chances to being overly pessimistic?

Recovering from a 35% approval rating in a state is going to be very difficult given the times. I don't think things were ever this bad for Obama in any battleground state pre-2012.

My hottest take remains that Nevada will no longer be a true battleground post-COVID. Lockdowns and general economic distress have devastated the tourism industry in Vegas and reduced the Democratic voter base by sending a lot of Vegas voters out of the state permanently, let alone alienating persuadable voters for the near future. I think it will have the largest Republican swing in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

There's no reason to 'discount' any of them. Just throw them all in the average.

The 538 national average on election day 2021 lined up perfectly with Biden's approval in exits and the VA results.

[Hollywood]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

There's no reason to 'discount' any of them. Just throw them all in the average.

The 538 national average on election day 2021 lined up perfectly with Biden's approval in exits and the VA results.

I got VA right cause I discounted those polls.  About 1-2 months out from election day, the dynamic approval rating polls like Rasmussen, Gallup, Q and Civiqs were showing a big shift towards disapproval and loss of enthusiasm, and other A pollsters came around to that result at the end.  YouGov/Economist had Biden at -3 two weeks before VA.  Reuters/Ipso and CNN had Biden even or a point up or down.  These polls were ridiculous so I threw them out.  I also threw out Rasmussen and Trafalgar.  I thought it would be around 52-47 about a month out, because there was a clear enthusiasm gap, and a lot of voters that strongly disapproved.  

To me, YouGov seems to be useless as an approval poll.  It wasn't right 2 months out from the VA election, and it wasn't correct a few days out.   There are articles describing how McAuliffe wasted money running a national campaign on the internet, and relied on surveys to boost his turnout. He outspent Youngkin 4-1 on Social Media.  The YouGov Questionaire was geared towards Democrat issues. This burned McAullife.  He was running a campaign on national issues when he should have been focused on local and state issues.  You can only go after Trump so many times, and regurgitate Covid-19 talking points.  

[Hollywood]

If you discount YouGov, the Avg. of Quinnipiac, Civiqs, CNBC, Morning Consult, Maris, Harvard-Harris and Reuters has Biden's Approval at 38-54% (-16%).  Republicans have a 4-5% lead among the National Electorate.  There are enough state polls to support the numbers indicated by Civiqs, which were more reliable indicators of Biden's popularity in the VA election.  YouGov is such a huge and consistent outlier right now.  I'm not even so sure that they are truly measuring 'Approval' like other pollsters.  Something is up.  

The Q poll is showing Biden with another historically low approval rating.  It's worse than Rasmussen.  Without those outlandishly favorable approval polls, Biden's approval rating is as bad as, or worse, than Trump at this point.  Civiqs indicates that Biden has worse approval ratings than Trump, and starting to drop again.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

There's no reason to 'discount' any of them. Just throw them all in the average.

The 538 national average on election day 2021 lined up perfectly with Biden's approval in exits and the VA results.

I got VA right cause I discounted those polls.  About 1-2 months out from election day, the dynamic approval rating polls like Rasmussen, Gallup, Q and Civiqs were showing a big shift towards disapproval and loss of enthusiasm, and other A pollsters came around to that result at the end.  YouGov/Economist had Biden at -3 two weeks before VA.  Reuters/Ipso and CNN had Biden even or a point up or down.  These polls were ridiculous so I threw them out.  I also threw out Rasmussen and Trafalgar.  I thought it would be around 52-47 about a month out, because there was a clear enthusiasm gap, and a lot of voters that strongly disapproved.  Basically, there's no reason to include the outliers when the a mix of the better pollsters from both sides of the aisle can be analyzed with more real-world inputs.  Everyone in that Virginia saw the writing on the Wall way in advance.  YouGov only mucked it up. 

[philly09]

Morning Consult
45,000 Adults April 6-12

42% Approve(+2)

50% Disapprove(-3)

Rassmussen/Pulse Opinion Research
1500 LV April 11-13


40% Approve(-2)

58% Disapprove (+1)

[Hollywood]

Morning Consult
45,000 Adults April 6-12

42% Approve(+2)

50% Disapprove(-3)

Rassmussen/Pulse Opinion Research
1500 LV April 11-13


40% Approve(-2)

58% Disapprove (+1)

RASMUSSEN and MORNING CONSULT are within each others Margin of Error  They are consistent with other Pollsters, but they are measuring Likely and Registered Voters.  The top-line in a  poll of 45,000 Randoms is only one piece of he puzzle.  

MORNING CONSULT Sample 1
41% Approve(+1)
55% Disapprove(+2)
40-58% (D+2.9 Bias)

MORNING CONSULT Sample 2
40% Approve
53% Disapprove
39-56% (D+2.9 Bias)

RASMUSSEN
40% Approve (-2)
58% Disapprove (+1)
42-57% (R+1.5 Biase)

[Hollywood]

QU polls need to be banned with it's 33 PERCENT APPROVAL

Instead of banning polls that have good track records to gas light the American populace, why don't you demand Biden follow through on the promises he made to voters when he ran for office?   Then you wouldn't have to ban any pollsters. lol.

Listen Man... I wasn't lying when I said I want you in charge of the Democrat Party's 2022 Strategy. 

Ha QU had Harrison tied with Graham in the last election and Biden up 14 over Trump and McGrath down by four to McConnell ha QU with the best Track record even Rassy has Biden at 41/55 not 33%

Yeah.  I never said QU has the best track record.  I said it had a good track record.  The fact that QU has underestimated Republicans, and now Biden's approval is at a record low for the pollster should be giving you sleepless.  Civiqs, CNBC Hart, ABC, etc. have him at record low approval.  Civiqs has Biden at 36% right now.  For these pollsters to be to the right of Rasmussen is a terrible argument to be making. 

Also, Rasmussen has Biden's approval at 41%-57%, so I don't know where you're getting this 41-55.  And didn't you want to ban Rasmussen?  How would you make your point if Rasmussen was banned?
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history

You keep holding out hope that Politico/YouGov is putting out correct numbers, but their numbers and methods are basically identical to terrible D Insider pollsters.