Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

Start watching the state polls. 50-48 nationwide polls suggest different results in the states than do 42-50 polls.

...The problem with the cheap gas of a year ago (really a year and a half ago) was that there was no place to go. 

[wbrocks67]

Start watching the state polls. 50-48 nationwide polls suggest different results in the states than do 42-50 polls.

...The problem with the cheap gas of a year ago (really a year and a half ago) was that there was no place to go. 

Unfortunately, there are few outlets that have reputable state polls at this point.

[GregTheGreat657]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/11/biden-coronavirus-pandemic-515764

[THG]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

[wbrocks67]

Literally *how* many dems in disarray articles does POLITICO write in a week that are the exact same thing? It's every single day at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

Trump's average was -18 at this time in 2017. Bidens is -5. No.

[Matty]

He’s at -9.5 on rcp avg

[pbrower2a]

Start watching the state polls. 50-48 nationwide polls suggest different results in the states than do 42-50 polls.

...The problem with the cheap gas of a year ago (really a year and a half ago) was that there was no place to go. 

Unfortunately, there are few outlets that have reputable state polls at this point.

Probably because we lack valid measures of the demographic effects of 700K deaths upon the character of the electorate.

[wbrocks67]

He’s at -9.5 on rcp avg

Because of Trafalgar and Rasmussen (and Q-Pac)

[GregTheGreat657]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

Trump's average was -18 at this time in 2017. Bidens is -5. No.

The people who get polled tend to be a little bit more left-leaning than the general electorate. These polls generally have samples that are in the range of D + 8.

[Matty]

He’s at -9.5 on rcp avg

Because of Trafalgar and Rasmussen (and Q-Pac)

Do I smell some unskewing?

I don’t recall y’all taking out AP/NORC, etc when judging Trump’s hellish rcp numbers lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Start watching the state polls. 50-48 nationwide polls suggest different results in the states than do 42-50 polls.

...The problem with the cheap gas of a year ago (really a year and a half ago) was that there was no place to go.  

Unfortunately, there are few outlets that have reputable state polls at this point.

Probably because we lack valid measures of the demographic effects of 700K deaths upon the character of the electorate.

I know the Election is a yr away but D's are overperforming in GA, FL, OH and underperforming in NH, MI and NH Midterms as we found out  I'm ,2018/ are less Partisan than Prez Election

Ds win ,52+ SEN Seats and keep the H in order to get DC Statehood, we won on Red KY in an offer election and Ryan looks like Beshear

In a Prez yr normally MI Wi and PA gives us 265 and VA, Ga and AZ gives us 270 but upsets can happen and Sunbelt's are backups to Rust belt

LOOK AT POLLS Craig And SUNUNU WINNING AND LEPAGE,  Charlie Baker and Ayotte winning and don't Sleep on Michael Steele in MD

[Inmate Trump]

I do think he'll rebound somewhat.

His approval is going to mimic covid-19.  It's what he was elected to fix, and if cases go down, his approval rating goes up.  It's why Republican governors are doing everything in their power to ensure more people get sick.

[Pres Mike]

I do think he'll rebound somewhat.

His approval is going to mimic covid-19.  It's what he was elected to fix, and if cases go down, his approval rating goes up.  It's why Republican governors are doing everything in their power to ensure more people get sick.

I agree that he'll rebound somewhat, especially if reconciliation passes.

But I disagree with the republican governors. I think a lot of people are sick of mandates and restrictions and they are tapping into that. No one wants the death toll to go up

And cases going up isn't what hurt Biden's approvals. Its a combination of shortages, long lines, inflation, Afghan withdrawal, return of masks, and lack of progress on Build Back Better

[THG]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

Trump's average was -18 at this time in 2017. Bidens is -5. No.

Biden is currently -10 on RCP.

Trump was similar throughout his presidency, give or take, and polls usually overestimate Democrats, so his *real* approval may actually be lower!

[ProudModerate2]

Dems are NOT alarmed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunately, there are few outlets that have reputable state polls at this point.

lol

Have anyone learned from Midterms 2006/ blue wave, 2010 Red wave, WI, PA, MI went Red 2014 CO, IL went Red and FL ost went blue, 2018 AZ and OH went blue while AZ, OH Gov andA, MD and NH Govs went Red, Midterms don't follow partisan trends,

Hillary was trying to win FL but loose a WI or MI, 1976 Election had long been coming and in 2022/ where we need DC Statehood for Sen 2024/ since Rs are trying to shutdown the Govt in a Pandemic, D's can win but as a check on Biden have a mixed result

But, still maintain Congress with 55745 Senate and a D Controlled Divided H, we just need to expand the Sem a 222/216DH can pass Progressive Legislation, we need Filibuster reform and a 55/45 D's promised the lowering of Filibuster to 55 anyways

Midterms don't always follow the Blue Wall every midterm NE is more R than Prez Election and Sunbelt we won in Red KY, LA and T Mac is winning in VA is more D, Crist almost won in 2014/ in an plus 5 R Environment and Alex Sink almost won in 2010 in FL Rs aren't Winning FL forever and Rubio is only 4 ahead of Val DEMING'S

Congrats to Carville he personally recruited Demings whom after Surfside was down 60/40%

I have picked upsets just like in Football, as opposed to Baseball and Basketball, Underdog wins in Politics and Foitball

[Pres Mike]

Dems are NOT alarmed.

I am a Democratic and I am alarmed

Most people, even 2020 Biden voters, can not name anything he has done. And can not say life is better. If anything, things are worst with inflation

[DrScholl]

I do think he'll rebound somewhat.

His approval is going to mimic covid-19.  It's what he was elected to fix, and if cases go down, his approval rating goes up.  It's why Republican governors are doing everything in their power to ensure more people get sick.

I agree that he'll rebound somewhat, especially if reconciliation passes.

But I disagree with the republican governors. I think a lot of people are sick of mandates and restrictions and they are tapping into that. No one wants the death toll to go up

And cases going up isn't what hurt Biden's approvals. Its a combination of shortages, long lines, inflation, Afghan withdrawal, return of masks, and lack of progress on Build Back Better

I wouldn't be so broad about that. The extremists would love to see the death toll go up if it meant they could use it against Biden in the midterm. The anti-vaccination and anti-mask push has been orchestrated by right-wing dark money powers for a reason.

[BG-NY]

I haven't checked RCP so I don't know how Biden is performing. That said, he was dealt a bad hand. Covid is not his fault.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Has no one noticed that the Rassy and Trafalgar numbers are using samples of ‘likely voters’, while everyone else is doing registered voters or adults.
Those screens usually give you worse numbers than just using registered voters in the run-up to an election. Using them for someone that won’t be on a ballot for 3 years is staggering, probably malicious, incompetence.

[Del Tachi]

I do think he'll rebound somewhat.

His approval is going to mimic covid-19.  It's what he was elected to fix, and if cases go down, his approval rating goes up.  It's why Republican governors are doing everything in their power to ensure more people get sick.

I agree that he'll rebound somewhat, especially if reconciliation passes.

But I disagree with the republican governors. I think a lot of people are sick of mandates and restrictions and they are tapping into that. No one wants the death toll to go up

And cases going up isn't what hurt Biden's approvals. Its a combination of shortages, long lines, inflation, Afghan withdrawal, return of masks, and lack of progress on Build Back Better

I wouldn't be so broad about that. The extremists would love to see the death toll go up if it meant they could use it against Biden in the midterm. The anti-vaccination and anti-mask push has been orchestrated by right-wing dark money powers for a reason.

[wbrocks67]

He’s at -9.5 on rcp avg

Because of Trafalgar and Rasmussen (and Q-Pac)

Do I smell some unskewing?

I don’t recall y’all taking out AP/NORC, etc when judging Trump’s hellish rcp numbers lol

It's not unskewing. Trafalgar and Rasmussen (and Q-Pac) are showing wild outliers (-15 to -18) when compared to the average. At least 538 tries to weight them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has no one noticed that the Rassy and Trafalgar numbers are using samples of ‘likely voters’, while everyone else is doing registered voters or adults.
Those screens usually give you worse numbers than just using registered voters in the run-up to an election. Using them for someone that won’t be on a ballot for 3 years is staggering, probably malicious, incompetence.

Yes, serious followers of polling know that both Rasmussen and Trafalgar are junk pollsters.  For example:

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1447636015112499207

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden’s approval ratings are essentially identical to Trump’s 9 months into his presidency, and they seem unlikely to rebound.

This is verifiably false.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo