Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is gonna be a jobs report coming out at the End of May and it's not gonna look good for Biden it will verify some job growth but not nearly enough and it's gonna verify Bidens mediocre Approvals, 51/49%

Yahoo news and MSNBC reports, but R states already got to d of 300

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 29-June 1, 1500 adults including 1275 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-2)
Disapprove 40 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 29 (nc)

RV:

Approve 50 (-2)
Disapprove 43 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+1)

[Lief 🗽]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), May 26-28, 1305 adults including 1006 RV

Adults:

Approve 53 (+2)
Disapprove 32 (nc)

RV:

Approve 59 (+4)
(Disapproval not shown)

59% in the Gold Standard national poll, wow!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron DeSantis has a 60 percent Approvals so it really doesn't matter about FL and he is likely to Redistricted 5 D's out of office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Newsom doesn't get 50% on the recall, it's Gov Cox and Newsom is at 45% in the Recall

So all these rosey maps may not even matter

[Adam Griffin]

Oklahoma, Amber Integrated (500 RVs, MoE 4.4%) 

Biden 38/53

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Biden Approvals have gone down, he has only passed Covid relief nothing else, you gotta have accomplishments, not just good Approvals

38% in OK

Biden isn't 59% Prez anymore

It's a long way to the recall but it's Gov Cox if Newsom doesn't get 50% and it's tied 45%, Cali gov is endangered of flipping R

[soundchaser]

Given that Biden got 32% in OK in 2020, 38% approval seems...fine?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 2-3, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 88 (+3)
I: 55 (+7)
R: 16 (+1)

Last week's poll looked like an outlier at the time, and still does.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

78 percent has Rs winning the H
78 percent has D's winning the S
And D's are favored in Govs Election of keeping at least 278 but this now we don't know about Cali Recall

Newsom is giving out a lottery for people to get Covid vaccines, it may help or may not Newsom has to get 50% to avoid a Recall or it's Gov Cox

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 2-3, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 88 (+3)
I: 55 (+7)
R: 16 (+1)

Last week's poll looked like an outlier at the time, and still does.

You know that we're in polarized times when 16% of Republicans approving of Biden makes him look like Eisenhower.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Oklahoma, Amber Integrated (500 RVs, MoE 4.4%) 

Biden 38/53

Tulsa Joe.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1398703274061086721

I don't know how this breaks down among different groups of Hispanic voters... but I would expect Cuban-Americans to start getting cold feet about the insurrectionists. 

I honestly think the gains are mainly among Mexican-Americans. If anything, Biden turned out to be more liberal and left leaning than expected during the 2020 campaign. If Cubans didn't vote for him running as a moderate because of "muh socialism", they surely won't approve him now. Not to mention the president's efforts to normalize relations with the Cuban government again.

Many Mexican-Americans want a tighter border because illegal immigrants threaten their jobs in places like San Antonio.  Still much about them is liberal. They want better public services; they value formal education. They are much more communitarian than Anglo whites.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before its a 303 map, NC, FL and TX are leaning R and we might not win GA, NC Leans R unless there is a poll showing Ds ahead in NC

Newsom is endangered of losing because he is at 45 percent and he has to make it to 51 percent to avoid the recall and Orange Suburbs have very rich people and can vote R

But, if we lose the recall Gov Cox can't do too much with an D Supermajority Legislature and Villigosa or Steyer WOULD run against him in 2022 and win the seat back

[pbrower2a]

Given that Biden got 32% in OK in 2020, 38% approval seems...fine?

Considering that approval numbers are the best proxy for the next election until we have at the least the contest between Joe Biden and Gen. Eric Republican,  that is really good news. The usual ceiling that I recognize for an incumbent is 100-DIS, which means that President Biden could never get more than 47% of the vote in Oklahoma.

This is consistent with President Biden getting 54-56% of the popular vote. The biggest swings would be in states in which Biden most got trounced.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that Biden got 32% in OK in 2020, 38% approval seems...fine?

Considering that approval numbers are the best proxy for the next election until we have at the least the contest between Joe Biden and Gen. Eric Republican,  that is really good news. The usual ceiling that I recognize for an incumbent is 100-DIS, which means that President Biden could never get more than 47% of the vote in Oklahoma.

This is consistent with President Biden getting 54-56% of the popular vote. The biggest swings would be in states in which Biden most got trounced.  

Biden is not getting 54/56 percent of the popular vote in a 304 Election map it was 51/46 and the Ds are gonna replicate the 303 blue wall in the Senate in 2022 and will do the same in 2024

303 was 51/46 is consistent with a 303 map we are likely to win 1 OH, NC, FL are R IA not all of them in 2024

[pbrower2a]

Landslides in the Electoral College typically happen when the political polarization in most states is slight.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There isn't gonna be a landslide with Biden at 51/49 Approvals the same as his Approvals as he had on Election day 51/46 percent

A mini landslide which is AZ, WI, GA, PA, NH Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was 59 percent approvals in April, what happened? I am not moved by these RV polls instead of LV polls just like same Q Up in a RV poll in 2020 had Biden plus 14 during the height of George Floyd protests and then the 30 and under crowd didn't vote and instead of 415 map we get t a 303 map

I heard Biden whom didn't win his Nomination on his own needed Obama help is asking for Obama help to get more people enrolled in Obamacare

[pbrower2a]

It is safe to assume that the Republican Party was practically unorganized in much of the South. I have whited out those states to show that the low voting rates (Texas had 23 electoral votes and California 25, but California had three times as many voters as did Texas, and Texas was less blatant than the more blatant parts of "Kukluxistan". This mutes some gigantic margins in states in which elections weren't representative of the population as a whole. 

Otherwise: margins

R+20 saturation 9 
R+10 to R+19 saturation 7
R+5 to R+10 saturation 5
R+4 to R+5 saturation 3 (Maine was at 4.99)
under +2 R saturation 2

under +3 D saturation 2
D+3 to D+5 saturation 4
D+5 to D+10 saturation 5 (New York 5.01)
D+10 to D+20 saturation 7

FDR beat Willkie by a margin not much more severe than that of Obama beating McCain in 2008. FDR won a bunch of states that did not have meaningful contests for the Presidency, but those states had small totals of votes. Note the contrast between California and Texas. That I had North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia in the 'contested' category is arbitrary on my part.

So what do I mean by polarization? Obama won some states with numbers that one associates with Reagan in 1984 but lost some states like Mondale in 1984.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1401546847240458241

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"History, though, is a guide, not a fortune teller."
Wise words.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1401546847240458241

As pessimistic as I am in perpetuity (obviously), I do think that there is a nonzero chance of this. Perhaps Biden and the Democrats can seize upon the pandemic's downturn like Bush and the GOP did with 9/11 and national security in 2002. I can't find it in me to hold my breath for that though. Our country is too polarized and it's unlikely that redistricting will benefit the Democrats when it's all said and done.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1401546847240458241

Indeed some things are very different. Although our politics seem much like those of the Obama era. as one could not have a more fitting understudy of Obama than Biden and that American political life looked extremely polarized in 2020, we are no longer in normal times. Donald Trump disgraced himself badly after the election, yet he still has the support of a majority of the Republican Party. Trump still casts a huge shadow over American political life as Carter didn't in 1982, the elder Bush didn't in 1990, the younger Bush didn't in 2010, and Obama didn't in 2018. The former Presidents behaved themselves well after their terms were up -- and Trump is a disgrace.

Ordinarily the Presidential winner finds a large number of Congressional nominees winning with him and gaining seats for his Party in the year of his Presidential win. In effect, a midterm election is often a reverse-wave election for the President's Party. If anything the Congressional results looks more like what one would expect with a Trump win. Will 2022 still be the six-year itch involving Donald Trump or will it be the two-year itch involving  Joe Biden? Republicans gained some in the House in 2020, removing some Democrats with very shaky holds on House seats. There is little low-habging fruit, so to speak, for Republicans to pick up in the House.     

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1401546847240458241

As pessimistic as I am in perpetuity (obviously), I do think that there is a nonzero chance of this. Perhaps Biden and the Democrats can seize upon the pandemic's downturn like Bush and the GOP did with 9/11 and national security in 2002. I can't find it in me to hold my breath for that though. Our country is too polarized and it's unlikely that redistricting will benefit the Democrats when it's all said and done.

I would not be surprised at all to see Dems gain in the Senate and win the generic congressional ballot and still lose the house to redistricting.
Of course even if they win, the lesson they will take away is that doing nothing is great and we’ll have 5 more Senators demanding nothing happen.