Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

Also Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Milwaukee, which was essential to Biden winning their states. See also Boston , the Twin Cities, greater Dee Cee... an America as rural as America was even in the 1950's might have voted for Trump.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 14-15, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (-2)
Disapprove 38 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a D plus 3.1 Election like last time which is neutral Environment, there is gonna be some buyers remorse in the S but since D's are gonna hold most Gov, Rs are gonna have a difficult time

[Person Man]

Poll of 1,126 Registered Texas Voters by UT Tyler

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)

Crosstabs:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black


This polling firm is rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.


This poll looks quite reliable to me, NGL.

In fact it was an interesting read, especially the part about news sources by political party. I encourage you to read it.

I could believe Biden will get 48% in 2024 Texas in a neutral election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX ISNT HAPPENING UNLESS MCCOUNGHEY SAYS HE IS GONNA RUN don't forget what happened to HEGAR last yr

[pbrower2a]

Poll of 1,126 Registered Texas Voters by UT Tyler

Margin of error: ±2.9% (±4.1% including design effects)

President Biden approval rating: +7% (48% Approve - 41% Disapprove)
Governor Abbott approval rating: +14% (50% Approve - 36% Disapprove)
Lieutenant Governor Patrick approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)
Attorney General Paxton approval rating: +11% (37% Approve - 26% Disapprove)

Senator Cornyn favorability rating: +19% (43% Favorable - 24% Unfavorable)
Senator Cruz favorability rating: +2% (44% Favorable - 42% Unfavorable)
Vice President Harris favorability rating: +3% (43% Favorable - 40% Unfavorable)
Politician O'Rourke favorability rating: -2% (35% Favorable - 37% Unfavorable)

President Biden on Immigration: -22% (30% Approve - 52% Disapprove)

Crosstabs:

30% Democrat, 37% Republican, 33% Neither
22% Liberal, 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate
36% voted for Trump in 2020, 32% voted for Biden in 2020, 30% didn't vote at all in 2020
57% Non-Hispanic White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Non-Hispanic Black


This polling firm is rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight.


This poll looks quite reliable to me, NGL.

In fact it was an interesting read, especially the part about news sources by political party. I encourage you to read it.

Well, so much for the recent qualification that Texas had an approval margin that hardly existed. If this holds up (a gigantic assumption in its own right), then President Biden will be re-elected in the largest landslide since at least Bill Clinton in 1996. Texas is becoming more like the USA as a whole in its politics as it becomes richer and better-educated. Texas used to be more typical of a poor Southern state, but that is over. I'm not saying that it is quite Virginia or Colorado yet, but it is now decidedly more prosperous than the states that border it even if those states are all very different in political heritage.       

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge for Biden in favorability.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is turning out to be a D plus 2.5 to 4.0 Election I don't expect it to be a plus 8 Election but enough for 53 Senate seats and Hold the H

[pbrower2a]

This is turning out to be a D plus 2.5 to 4.0 Election I don't expect it to be a plus 8 Election but enough for 53 Senate seats and Hold the H

Bum polls are possible... but Texas is unique. States can change in their political orientation, and Texas seems to be such a state. It is possible to see change in the other direction in Iowa and Ohio. Polls can be wrong. But let's look at how statewide pols are doing in Texas and see if the Biden approval rating says anything.

the Governor: 50-41 approve/disapprove.
the Lieutenant Governor: 37-26 approve/disapprove (it looks as if people are paying little attention).
the Attorney-General:  37-26 approve/disapprove

Senator Cornyn 42-24 favorable/unfavorable
Senator Cruz 44-42 favorable/unfavorable

 

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Pew Research, April 5-11, 5109 adults (change from early March)

Approve 59 (+5)
Disapprove 39 (-3)

Maybe you should take a look at the partisan composition of their sample :

lolololololol.

Wouldn't a proper partisan balance (in accordance with actual registered voters) be like 41-42 GOP vs 47-48 Dem?


I would have loved to see the crosstabs on the Biden + 17 WI poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Biden Approvals are staying above 50 is due to Police brutality and Gun violence and Insurrectionists, there had been absolutely no accountability on the part of RS on Gaetz, Hawley and Cruz for their role in Insurrectionists and sex sting

But, the Rs were quickly to denounce Foley and Craig on SSM

No difference between Vitter and Ensign whom also resigned

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is ground zero for Cruz and his assistance to Insurrectionists because he is a tea partier and ground zero for Energy crisis

Rs can keep their Cruz and Hawley but they dont have to Majority party

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 17-20, 1500 adults including 1225 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (nc)
Disapprove 38 (-4)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-3)

RV:

Approve 51 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), April 17-20, 1100 adults including 988 RV

Adults:

Approve 59 (-1)
Disapprove 35 (+1)

RV:

Approve 59 (-1)
Disapprove 35 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

[sting in the rafters]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 17-20, 1500 adults including 1225 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (nc)
Disapprove 38 (-4)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-3)

RV:

Approve 51 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (-1)

Key crosstab breakdowns:

By Party Affiliation:
D:85-9
R:17-76
I:45-46
By Ideology:
Liberal:82-11
Moderate:60-30
Conservative:19-73
In front of a ballot those undecided Ds/Rs come home (and realistically that R number is gonna be 90+%.) Most public surveys have the party id edge as ~D+3-4, which is just about the NPV they need to win the House nationwide. Very important that Joey keeps the party unified on the national level and local parties convert those D-leaning independents into the base.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact Biden is losing indies already is horrid. We are screwed!

This IS the Covid recovery period, we are seeing rapid economic growth and things are getting back to normal. The fact that Biden can’t even get positive approval among indies at his peak means this will be a horrid next few years. Well be lucky if we don’t have a 2010 style wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see polls from every state, I won't be confident about any R or D wave until there polls lots of them, and aren't many except Biden approvals 49 one minute and then 60 again

Midterms are determined by Generic ballot numbers anyways, not Prez Approvals, we need to see the Generic ballot test

[pbrower2a]

45% approval at the start of the electoral season (just under three years from now) will be enough for a Biden win if he has a competent and spirited campaign for re-election. That's how Obama got re-elected. 41% approval, which is about what Trump had around February 2020, is inadequate even with a competent and spirited campaign. Trump still got close to winning.

59% approval is what one typically sees for someone in his Party in a state that strongly identifies with his party. Joe Biden isn't making many mistakes yet. That can change -- and oh, can it change.

We need to see polls from every state, I won't be confident about any R or D wave until there polls lots of them, and aren't many except Biden approvals 49 one minute and then 60 again

Midterms are determined by Generic ballot numbers anyways, not Prez Approvals, we need to see the Generic ballot test

We haven't seen  that (Survey Monkey?) since the Trump Presidency. 50 states can tell us far more than 22 (23 if you count a poll of Pennsylvania that shows favorability... in that one Biden is ahead by a high single-digit margin), 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In the 2012 election, you had Tea Partiers leaving the Republican party out of disgust and identifying as independents , but they still voted Republican. People were panicking about Obama losing independents, but the party ID ended up being D+6.

The same thing is happening now with the MAGAs identifying as independents, which just means Democrats party ID edge is going to increase while they lose ground with independents.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I miss Zogby online polling, back during 2000 and 2004 they were inaccurate, but we are in a post 2006 era where Sunbelt can vote D and you would see D's doing well in WI, PA, NH, NC and GA

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

Well, as one of the regular poll posters, I'll repeat the personal policy I've mentioned multiple times in the past: I don't post daily trackers such as Rasmussen, or HarrisX or Navigator when they were doing daily polls in 2020, unless they show something unusual or interesting, like new highs or lows for an individual.  I also don't post polls whose quality is generally considered suspect (e.g. McLaughlin), again unless there's something particularly interesting about them. 

Other people are welcome to post those polls if they see fit.  Some might find that more productive than complaining.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

Well, as one of the regular poll posters, I'll repeat the personal policy I've mentioned multiple times in the past: I don't post daily trackers such as Rasmussen, or HarrisX or Navigator when they were doing daily polls in 2020, unless they show something unusual or interesting, like new highs or lows for an individual.  I also don't post polls whose quality is generally considered suspect (e.g. McLaughlin), again unless there's something particularly interesting about them. 

Other people are welcome to post those polls if they see fit.  Some might find that more productive than complaining.

What have I told you about being a #liberalhack, GM?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

Well, as one of the regular poll posters, I'll repeat the personal policy I've mentioned multiple times in the past: I don't post daily trackers such as Rasmussen, or HarrisX or Navigator when they were doing daily polls in 2020, unless they show something unusual or interesting, like new highs or lows for an individual.  I also don't post polls whose quality is generally considered suspect (e.g. McLaughlin), again unless there's something particularly interesting about them. 

Other people are welcome to post those polls if they see fit.  Some might find that more productive than complaining.

ARG is pretty damn suspect, lol. It frequently showed Trump at -20 or even -25 net approvals throughout his entire term. I don't think Trump's approval was that low given November 2020

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stop it, Biden Approvals isn't 59 percent, I will not be convinced of any 59 percent approvals unless Covid is over or substantially reduced to the point that everyone returns to work

There are LIMITS TO WHAT FED GOVT CAN DO ERADICATING COVID AND THE 1400 CHECKS WERENT ENOUGH, AS LONG AS COVID CONTINUES

538 has Biden at +13. Rasmussen has Biden at +2, while ARG has Biden at +24. Both Rasmussen and ARG are 9 points off the average. I wonder, why C-rated ARG is posted, but not B-rated Rasmussen 

Well, as one of the regular poll posters, I'll repeat the personal policy I've mentioned multiple times in the past: I don't post daily trackers such as Rasmussen, or HarrisX or Navigator when they were doing daily polls in 2020, unless they show something unusual or interesting, like new highs or lows for an individual.  I also don't post polls whose quality is generally considered suspect (e.g. McLaughlin), again unless there's something particularly interesting about them. 

Other people are welcome to post those polls if they see fit.  Some might find that more productive than complaining.

ARG is pretty damn suspect, lol. It frequently showed Trump at -20 or even -25 net approvals throughout his entire term. I don't think Trump's approval was that low given November 2020

Oh, certainly.  There's no doubt that ARG (among others) has a leftward bias in their polls, just as Rasmussen (among others) has a rightward bias.  This is why polling averages are good.

I like following the ARG poll because it's a long-running monthly poll with very consistent methodology and a predictable release schedule (the 21st of each month), so it's useful to watch for trends.  I don't think it's particularly significant that it shows Biden close to 60% right now.  However, I think it will be significant if that 60% moves to 55% or 65% at some point in the future.