Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

Elon University, North Carolina:

synopsis: Biden approval 49, disapproval 33.

also of interest:

“How responsible do you think former President Trump is for the violence at the Capitol
Building on January 6th?”

Very Somewhat Slightly not at all (registered voters, which will be very close to the 2020 electorate)
 
43........16.........14.........27

Biden would probably win a re-match in North Carolina. Trump is now toxic in the Tarheel state.

https://www.elon.edu/u/elon-poll/wp-content/uploads/sites/819/2021/02/Elon-Poll-Report-020521.pdf

California (PPIC)  -- a synopsis:

approval on handling the COVID-19 plague:

Donald Trump 32-66 (October 20, and this is likely stable)
Joe Biden 71-20 (January 21)

Is climate change a major threat?

55% African-Americans
59% whites
64% Latinos
67% Asian-Americans  

(California is particularly vulnerable to climate change in heat waves and droughts)

“Overall, from what you know so far, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Joe Biden is
handling his job as president?”
Approve Disapprove Don’t know
All adults 70% 24% 7%
Likely voters 65 31 4
Party
Democrats 89 7 4
Republicans 24 68 7
Independents 65 26 9
Region
Central Valley 63 32 5
Inland Empire 63 27 10
Los Angeles 74 19 7
Orange/San Diego 71 23 6
San Francisco Bay Area 71 21 8

(I'm going with "likely voters", but it makes no difference on the map)

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

I will use the favorability number for New York. It may differ from approval, but not that much to cause me to expect any difference in characterization. Utah has been polled enough last year that I can expect more satisfaction from an approval number. Texas is too close and now politically erratic  for me to use any favorability number, and Wisconsin is way too close.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Believe me the South is gonna vote right in Senate and Govs but in House it's a different story.

[Tender Branson]

pbrower, don't use favourables and approvals in the same map !

That's very confusing and unscientific.

There is already the map above with the approvals, so you can create a favourable map if you want.

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, don't use favourables and approvals in the same map !

That's very confusing and unscientific.

There is already the map above with the approvals, so you can create a favourable map if you want.

I have only one favorable, and that is New York, which is incontrovertible. I rejected favorable numbers for Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin for very good reason. If there were a +70 favorable number for Biden the District of Columbia I would put it clearly in the +30 zone for approval. If there were a -50 favorability for Biden in Oklahoma I would use it to suggest that Biden has a -30 differential percentage in Oklahoma. 

[Inmate Trump]

Biden has a higher approval rating in Texas than Gov. Abbott does.

Biden's approval there is 41% vs Abbott's at 39%.

lol

[Hermit For Peace]

Earlier than I expected. Both states were polled often over the last four years. It is an excellent start for President Biden. Forty-eight to go. 

Great start for Biden but D's are gonna lose big time on impeachment, the vote to dismiss the case was 55/45

I don't think people really care about impeachment at this point. The Dems did what they had to do. Pelosi did her job and I'm glad for it. Sometimes politicians need to do the right thing rather than go for optics. Trump is society's problem now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Earlier than I expected. Both states were polled often over the last four years. It is an excellent start for President Biden. Forty-eight to go. 

Great start for Biden but D's are gonna lose big time on impeachment, the vote to dismiss the case was 55/45

I don't think people really care about impeachment at this point. The Dems did what they had to do. Pelosi did her job and I'm glad for it. Sometimes politicians need to do the right thing rather than go for optics. Trump is society's problem now.

.
We are in a Natl Recession and Trump is popular in the South, if you don't think the South is gonna shift R due to impeachment, you are in error.

Trump is just as popular as Nixon was during his time during Watergate on impeachment.

That's why DeSantis and Brian will win Re-election and Pat McCrory will be the next Senator from NC.  Also, Graham who is against Impeachment won by 10 pts

[President Johnson]

Where on earth is Gallup??

---

GALLUP'S FIRST BIDEN APPROVAL POLL

APPROVE: 57%

DISAPPROVE: 37%

NET APPROVAL RATING: +20%

---

BY POLITICAL PARTY

Democrats: 98% Approve, 1% Disapprove, +97% Net Approval

Republicans: 11% Approve, 85% Disapprove, -74% Net Approval

Independents: 61% Approve, 31% Disapprove, +30% Net Approval

BY GENDER

Men: 52% Approve, 42% Disapprove, +10% Net Approval

Women: 63% Approve, 32% Disapprove, +31% Net Approval

BY RACE

Non-Hispanic White Adults: 47% Approve, 48% Disapprove, -1% Net Approval

All other adults: 80% Approve, 12% Disapprove, +68% Net Approval

BY AGE

18 - 29 years old: 70% Approve, 27% Disapprove, +43% Net Approval

30 - 49 years old: 62% Approve, 28% Disapprove, +34% Net Approval

50 - 64 years old: 50% Approve, 44% Disapprove, +6% Net Approval

65+ years old: 49% Approve, 49% Disapprove, ±0% Net Approval

BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

College Graduates: 67% Approve, 30% Disapprove, +37% Net Approval

Not College Graduates: 53% Approve, 40% Disapprove, +13% Net Approval

BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

$100,000 or Above: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove, +16% Net Approval

Between $40,000 and $99,999: 54% Approve, 41% Disapprove, +13% Net Approval

Under $40,000: 67% Approve, 26% Disapprove, +41% Net Approval

BY URBANIZATION

Urban: 67% Approve, 27% Disapprove, +40% Net Approval

Suburban: 61% Approve, 35% Disapprove +26% Net Approval

Rural: 43% Approve, 50% Disapprove -7% Net Approval

BY POLITICAL IDEOLOGY

Liberal: 92% Approve, 3% Disapprove, +89% Net Approval

Moderate: 70% Approve, 24% Disapprove, +46% Net Approval

Conservative: 25% Approve, 70% Disapprove, -45% Net Approval

---

906 U.S. Adults living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia were surveyed between January 21, 2021 and February 02, 2021. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Wow, Uncle Joe at 98% approval with Democrats? If that's true, this is higher than Trump among Republicans. Democrats are a Biden cult now, too

[pbrower2a]

Personality cult? No. Just doing much right early.

The harder stuff comes later.

It may be more disdain for Trump policies than anything else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Personality cult? No. Just doing much right early.

The harder stuff comes later.

It may be more disdain for Trump policies than anything else.

I would caution on Biden approvals,the Unemployment numbers were 49 K jobs and these are the same polls that said D's would win 413 EC votes

Impeachment is at 47-40 , not a majority support impeachment.  Most voters have moved on.

It won be a D+9 Election with 57  percent approvals, more like a neutral but a D+3.5 with 50 percent approvals.

Biden isn't at 57 approvals in a Recession

[roxas11]

Personality cult? No. Just doing much right early.

The harder stuff comes later.

It may be more disdain for Trump policies than anything else.

I would caution on Biden approvals,the Unemployment numbers were 49 K jobs and these are the same polls that said D's would win 413 EC votes

Impeachment is at 47-40 , not a majority support impeachment.  Most voters have moved on.

It won be a D+9 Election with 57  percent approvals, more like a neutral but a D+3.5 with 50 percent approvals.

Biden isn't at 57 approvals in a Recession

Tell that to Republican Pat toomey
He is currently on the sunday shows saying that we do not need any more stimulus because the is convinced that the economy is going to be roaring back and Biden is going to riding a great economy in the future

now if any of what Pat toomey is claiming actually turns out to be true
than I think Biden and Harris will suddenly become a lot more popular than currently are right now...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Personality cult? No. Just doing much right early.

The harder stuff comes later.

It may be more disdain for Trump policies than anything else.

I would caution on Biden approvals,the Unemployment numbers were 49 K jobs and these are the same polls that said D's would win 413 EC votes

Impeachment is at 47-40 , not a majority support impeachment.  Most voters have moved on.

It won be a D+9 Election with 57  percent approvals, more like a neutral but a D+3.5 with 50 percent approvals.

Biden isn't at 57 approvals in a Recession

Tell that to Republican Pat toomey
He is currently on the sunday shows saying that we do not need any more stimulus because the is convinced that the economy is going to be roaring back and Biden is going to riding a great economy in the future

now if any of what Pat toomey is claiming actually turns out to be true
than I think Biden and Harris will suddenly become a lot more popular than currently are right now...

I didn't say D's are gonna lose whereas alot of users on this forum have predicted it, I just said that the polls were wrong in 2020 predicting a landslide and the 291 EC map was staring right in front of us all along and most of our House,  Senate, Gov races fall in the 291 track, not 413 track

[pbrower2a]

Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston

https://uh.edu/hobby/tx2021/attitudes.pdf

TEXAS

This may be water over the dam or under the bridge, but at this point if Trump were up for election (he isn't, of course) he would lose. It's favorability, but with these numbers the difference cannot mean that much when one contrasts politicians. This of course follows the insane events at the US Capitol about a month ago. Texas is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America in most aspects of life, although it is still decidedly more Republican than the US as a whole.

Trump did win the state decisively, although less decisively than any Republican nominee since Dole in 1996.

....................VF  SF N SU VUDK Joe Biden       26 15 11 5 37 6 Kamala Harris 25 14   8 6 37 10 Donald Trump 29 10   5 5 46 5

VF very favorable
SF somewhat favorable
N  (neutral) neither favorable nor unfavorable
SU slightly unfavorable
VU very unfavorable
DK don't know/no response

Biden is at 41-43, but Trump is at 39-51 in favorability. To be sure, that is not approval, but I can see no way of seeing Biden more positively than Trump among Texas voters for now.  

No, this does not belong on the approval map, but it clearly says something about Texas.

[Hope For A New Era]

BY AGE

18 - 29 years old: 70% Approve, 27% Disapprove, +43% Net Approval

30 - 49 years old: 62% Approve, 28% Disapprove, +34% Net Approval

50 - 64 years old: 50% Approve, 44% Disapprove, +6% Net Approval

65+ years old: 49% Approve, 49% Disapprove, ±0% Net Approval

Wow.

Strauss-Howe much?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is gonna be a neutral Environment, slim D Majorities in both Houses due to the Recession, it's not gonna be a big change

[Orser67]

Looking pretty good so far:

https://twitter.com/cameron_easley/status/1359480749863415808

The poll also points to the possibility that immigration will emerge as both a major flashpoint among Democrats in the 117th Congress, and a major area of Republican focus

[ultraviolet]

Looking pretty good so far:

https://twitter.com/cameron_easley/status/1359480749863415808

The poll also points to the possibility that immigration will emerge as both a major flashpoint among Democrats in the 117th Congress, and a major area of Republican focus

Sad that the refugee cap EO is the only unpopular one. The anti-immigrant rhetoric runs strong

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 6-9, 1500 adults including 1306 RV

NOTE: the YouGov poll cited a few posts above was for CBS News and is not part of this series.  It should not be compared directly to polls in this series due to possibly different methodologies.

Adults:

Approve 50 (+4)
Disapprove 37 (-1)

Strongly approve 33 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 29 (nc)

RV:

Approve 53 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (nc)

Strongly approve 37 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (+1)

[Lief 🗽]

Biden at 98% approval, a record!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's chances of keeping Congress just went up after Impeachment saga even of Trump is Acquitted, damage is done already. Trump is back to George Floyd levels of supports with females and Minorities

Which aren't the R base of WC males

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 9-10, 1001 adults

Approve 57 (nc)
Disapprove 35 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: PPP, Feb. 2-3, 846 voters

Approve 53
Disapprove 44

Strongly approve 45
Strongly disapprove 39

[Tender Branson]

NH-St. Anselm:

53-45

Link

KY-Mason Dixon:

39-49

Link

MS-Mason Dixon:

35-56

Link

SD-Spry:

42-52

Link

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1359735987920920576?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

KY-Mason Dixon:

39-49

Link

MS-Mason Dixon:

35-56

Link

Wow, why is Biden polling so much lower in Mississippi (where Trump won by 16.6%) than he is in Kentucky (where Trump won by 25.9%)? From the same polling firm no less. Is Mississippi just that polarized?

On a side note, how do you find so many state polls?

Yes.