Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is just as doomed as Oz and Masters they are all Down 48/39

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen now has Biden up to a 45% approval rating

They use a 3-day rolling average.  Sometimes they get a weird outlier in a daily sample that throws off their average until it rolls out, so we'll have to see if this holds up (I'd bet it won't).

Well, I would have lost that bet.  It's at 44/54 today and approval has been in the 43-45 range for over a week now, so they're showing a sustained improvement.  OTOH, I'm never inclined to put much faith in Rasmussen.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Biden's approval rating remains unchanged despite this being by far the best week of his presidency just shows how worthless this metric is.  Democrats scored a huge electoral victory last night despite everyone supposedly hating Biden.

I think his approval is completely divorced from his accomplishments & successes. People don’t seem to like him, regardless of any legislation he signs off on or how many terrorists he kills.

It is also largely driven by two things, the media and young people. Disliking and mocking him has become a meme at this point among the young and the media has completely snowed him politically. Fox News is a big culprit but the lower approval ratings and “everyone hates him” line has become repeated ad naseaum in the mainstream media as well. The fact of the matter is that Democrats always seem to need a charismatic figure to unify the party or they are simply unhappy.

When standing at the ballot box & faced with Trump, however, every single one of those voters will come home.

Quite the opposite, the disconnect has been that his favorables have continuously outran his approval #s. People are fairly neutral on him as a person, but it seems things like gas prices are outweighing that (or for young people, not enough action on their personal priorities, etc.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact that Biden's approval rating remains unchanged despite this being by far the best week of his presidency just shows how worthless this metric is.  Democrats scored a huge electoral victory last night despite everyone supposedly hating Biden.

I think his approval is completely divorced from his accomplishments & successes. People don’t seem to like him, regardless of any legislation he signs off on or how many terrorists he kills.

It is also largely driven by two things, the media and young people. Disliking and mocking him has become a meme at this point among the young and the media has completely snowed him politically. Fox News is a big culprit but the lower approval ratings and “everyone hates him” line has become repeated ad naseaum in the mainstream media as well. The fact of the matter is that Democrats always seem to need a charismatic figure to unify the party or they are simply unhappy.

When standing at the ballot box & faced with Trump, however, every single one of those voters will come home.

Quite the opposite, the disconnect has been that his favorables have continuously outran his approval #s. People are fairly neutral on him as a person, but it seems things like gas prices are outweighing that (or for young people, not enough action on their personal priorities, etc.)

Its a 303 with wave insurance because Midterms don't always follow Prez trends we won OH,MT and WVA in 2018 and came close I'm FL and TX and lost IN, ND, MO abd FL and D's didn't win 80 K votes

There is a Gender gap we win 55/45 of women, 75 Latinos and 90 percent black that accounts for a 65/60 M we have won since 2012 we can very well get 54 Sen and 224H winning 65/60 M not 80/75M Luke we did in 2018 because in WI, PA, NC and OH D's are leading in and Crist and Beto are tied in TX and FL

So, it's already a 303 map with wave insurance just like Rs think DeSantis is gonna win in 24 as my signature states it's a 303 map with wave insurance in 24 with the Sen map, with Casey up in PA in 24 Trump has zero chance of carrying the state

[pbrower2a]

14  D seats are up for re-election; 21 R seats are up for re-election this year. It is obvious that 2016 was a poor year for Democrats.

The Democrats obviously have little low-hanging fruit. Leahy is retiring in Vermont... ordinarily an open seat is a good chance for a pick-up by the Other Side, but the state is Vermont. Padilla replaced Harris as US Senator from California as an appointee, and he is running to continue a term. That's California.

Assessing risk of current D seats going R one has a list like this:

14. NV
13. GA
12. AZ
11. NH
10. CO


Others are California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington. It's hard to distinguish risk in this category. For the Republicans to have a pick-up in any of these states they will need everything going well at once.  We are three months away from the election, and time is running out for that.

More troublesome is the situation for Republicans.

Pat Toomey is retiring in Pennsylvania, and his intended successor isn't doing well. Ron Johnson barely won in 2016 and has shown himself an extremist in a moderate state, which is not good for survival. If you are looking for the equivalent of Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania in 2006 or Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas in 2020, here is the most likely incumbent who stands to get defeated. He was on the wrong side of the dispute over the 2020 Presidential election, which is not good for survival.  Right there I have

21. PA
20. WI

The GOP has a stronger chance of losing either of these seats than any chance of picking off a Democratic Senator.

The incumbent Republican is retiring in Ohio, and the nominee looks like a mistake. Ohio seems to be drifting R in Presidential elections, but that could also be Trump.

19. OH

OucH!

Seemingly-immortal Chuck Grassley is running for an eighth term in Iowa. The state seems to be drifting R in Presidential elections... as in Ohio, that could be Trump.  Grassley should have retired, but some mistakes get re-elected. It's hard to figure North Carolina, with an open seat due to a retirement. North Carolina looks capricious in electing Senators.

17. IA
16. NC

Beyond that one might have some that one cannot understand why they get elected -- the reason is that liberals fail to recognize the strength of visceral appeals that such types as Ted Cruz and Mario Rubio use. The proof that one hates Fidel Castro (even if he is dead) adequately in Florida is that one endorses plutocracy at its purest. Yes, Fidel Castro was an abominable person, and one need not be a right-winger to despise a Commie tyrant any more than one be an ultra-liberal or Jewish to hate Hitler.  If everything goes right for Democrats, then their seats are up in the air. See also murky Missouri, which used to be a pro-labor state but in which de-industrialization has gutted Big Labor as a political force.

15. FL
14. TX
13. MO

Finally, Mike lee was on the wrong side of the 2020 electoral dispute in Utah. His opponent is a genuine Independent. Go figure. Donald Trump was a horrid match as a Republican for Utah.     

[philly09]

Rassmussen 45/54. Aug 3-7.

GCB has narrowed from R+5 46-41 to R+3 46-43. And this is from July 29th.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_aug05

[pbrower2a]

Rassmussen 45/54. Aug 3-7.

GCB has narrowed from R+5 46-41 to R+3 46-43. And this is from July 29th.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_aug05

Joe Biden has been more quietly effective... and when Rasmussen can get Biden approval in the mid-forties, then he is likely doing fine if he is not in campaign mode.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 7-9, 1500 adults including 1331 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 14 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 16 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (nc), R 38 (-1)

[wbrocks67]

No movement in YouGov/Economist week to week.

Reuters/Ipsos shows minor movement, from 38/57 (-19) last week to 40/55 (-15) this week.

[wbrocks67]

Back above 40 on 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/

[pbrower2a]

It doesn't even matter because we only need blue states to win not red states and D's are winning all the blue states at 45 percent in the S and Gov and Beasley, Demings and Ryan are over performing in red states.

Hillary Clinton 2016 + MI + PA + WI. Anything beyond that is icing on the cake. Arizona may be drifting D much as Colorado and New Mexico did in Obama campaigns and kept doing so, and Arizona demographics are close to those of Colorado and New Mexico. It's too early to tell, but Greater Atlanta could make Illinois in the 1990's relevant as the suburbs start to go D. You may not think of Atlanta and Chicago having much in common -- but they are economic powerhouses in their regions and they are much more cosmopolitan than the more rural areas within their states.

Ohio used to be a swing state, and it is not all that long ago that it had two D Senators (Glenn and Metzenbaum). The R shift reflects that the cities other than Columbus have been hemorrhaging people with Ohio becoming more urban. If cities such as Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dayton, and Toledo can recover (Youngstown is going from being a city to a town), then Democrats recover. 

Then there is the phenomenon of Donald Trump, who has ever-fanatical, deluded (perhaps even demented) support among an ever-shrinking constituency. Trump is delayed damage. Trump is the Enron Corporation of electoral politics Enron went from one of the most admired companies in America to the most derided, in the meantime going into bankruptcy and receivership.       

That's why you don't over donate in this Environment you pick one like I am doing Tim Ryan and donate to them you don't donate to everyone.

You are making a good choice.

Rs are underperforming they were expected to win 245 H seats and 54 Senate Seats and they aren't because in 2020 they offered us 2K stimulus checks, together they went back to their tax cuts for the rich,. That's why Collins over perform because of Tara Reade and she negotiate 2K stimulus checks she is DOA in 26 to Jared Golden Filibuster Voting Rights and voting against Inflation Reduction Act no matter what she does on SSM that's why Mills, Golden are winning and King called Collins out on blocking Voting Rights.

It could also be that Donald Trump has severely damaged the Republican Party with his misconduct and his demand that Republicans support his cult of personality and defend him against allegations of serious malfeasance. Those connected to him in any way are at risk of defeat. Republicans should have kept some distance from him just as prominent people stayed clear of John Gotti. Few people of political or administrative relevance had their careers ruined when Gotti was ruined. But -- the Mafia is more infamous than famous, and in general people of real ability want anything to do with the Mafia. Trump was more mainstream until he betrayed the mainstream of American economic and political life.

The GOP has drifted from the center-right (Gerald Ford) to the disreputable, if not fascist Right (John Birch Society, which has not changed since the 1960's), but the current GOP has gone that way. To be fully fascist, one needs to support either genocidal (Nazis, Ba'athism) or potentially-genocidal (KKK) causes or brutal military regimes (Pinochet's Chile or current Myanmar).

[wbrocks67]

Back above 40% in Morning Consult-

both in their regular Politico poll (42/56) from August 10th

and their global leader weekly poll (40/53) which just got updated today

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a quick note FL has shifted from Lean Crist to Lean DeSantis because D's just raised taxes on Inflation Reduction Act, and FL is an anti tax state and we know summer polls are more D friendly

So, if Vance, or Budd jumps into the lead that is why Raising taxes it's not gonna effect the 303 map but wave insurance it definitely will effect, it will be a 52 D Senate 303 map unchanged but the H and if D's can get more seats in the Senate  we don't know and some Latinos are very conservative on taxes as whites are

They haven't polled NV with CCM, but she is more vulnerable according to Nate Silver than Kelly and Fetterman

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Aug. 6-9, 1002 RV (change from mid-July)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 58 (-1)

Strongly approve 19 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

GCB: D 41 (nc), R 41 (-3)

[philly09]

Fox News, Aug. 6-9, 1002 RV (change from mid-July)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 58 (-1)

Strongly approve 19 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

GCB: D 41 (nc), R 41 (-3)

From R+3 to EVEN. Trends are real.

[wbrocks67]

Something to watch is the Civiqs tracking poll, quite possibly the one that's been the most bearish on Biden since he got elected (they already had him in the negative by Feb 2021), has seen improvement for him as well

He was down to -28 (30/58) in approval in mid-July, and has now rebounded to 36/54 (-18)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is nothing new with Civiq we know it's a 303 map anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There should be noted the reason why Ds are OVERPERFORMING the low Approvals because Trump has the same low Approvals in Civiq polls that's why Ds are replicating the blue wall because of Trump low Approvals not just Biden Approvals, that's why the GCB isore favorable that Approvals to Biden.


It doesn't make sense if Kelly 54/40, Warnock 49/46, Fetterman and Ryan up 5.5 and Beasley and Demings are tied or leading and Franken and Trudy Val competetive any other way otherwise the D's will be losing so we can get a map that buck Biden low Approvals

As noted before we can get a 235/210 R H and D S 51/60 seats, 50 percent chance Divided Govt 40 percent chance of Secularist yand only 10 percent chance

Also there are 150M Females and 150M Men Females vote just as strongly for D's as Minorities Blks 15 percent and Latino and Arab 26 percent by 2045, when we turn 65 the Generation X thru Z elderly not old Fatal heart attacks aren't inevitable Arabs and Latinos are gonna be the majority

That's why Bailey, Cox and Mastriano all won the primaries and Ryan and Fetterman are leading and D's got clobbered in the OH and PA primaries females are voting R in the primaries and voting D in GE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another note about D's can't win red states they only can win blue states it's noted on MTP that College grads are more likely to vote than HS Grads, the Rural vote is obviously Red America only HS Diploma and blue America is urban college Grad that's why we can win Red states in 22 because there is a decline of WC voters Red America

That's why Beshear won in 2019 because the decline of HS Grades, so we can't win red state mantra is rebutted we can win red states in 22, that's why Ryan, BEASLEY, Demings, Franken and Trudy Val can all win with College Grad vote and rural vote declining it was on MTP

In 22 GA was a red state turned blue and in 2017 AZ was a red state turned blue but IA and WVA has turned red because more Rural HS Diploma than College Grads but in TX, MO, OH, NC and FL increase of College and Grad school Graduation

I already predicted FL, TX and Oh and NC going blue in Nov not August, just like in 2008/12 when College Grads beat HS Grads with Obama and Biden

We won 41 seats in Nov not August in 2018

[pbrower2a]

More education means more ability to detect and reject bullhist in political and religious discourse.

The damage that Donald Trump has done to the GOP has been slow to emerge, but it is undeniable now. It's not going to look better after time. Classified documents are like an otherwise-unlikely cadaver that one cannot explain away. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't for students loans Discharge either if Rs win the H Biden will have to give an Executive order for 10 K but if D's net the Secularist Trifecta Ryan, Brown, Warren said they will repeal the Filibuster and pass reparations for Blks and Students Loans Discharge, and pass bullet trains the Wealth tax creates 3 T in wealth that can find a replacement of Amtrak over the next Decade, of course Rs are against bullet trains because they want us to continue to use airlines

The wealthy gives to charities which are Entitlements that's a tax increase the Astros just donated Uvalde programs, that's a tax increase, baseball players can pay for our student loans Discharge

The people that it's gonna squeeze are middle class under 30 K we pay 0 IDR to 200 back in student loans but middle class once pause is over owe 500.00, but Student Loans stays in your credit report

[pbrower2a]

There should be noted the reason why Ds are OVERPERFORMING the low Approvals because Trump has the same low Approvals in Civiq polls that's why Ds are replicating the blue wall because of Trump low Approvals not just Biden Approvals, that's why the GCB isore favorable that Approvals to Biden.


It doesn't make sense if Kelly 54/40, Warnock 49/46, Fetterman and Ryan up 5.5 and Beasley and Demings are tied or leading and Franken and Trudy Val competetive any other way otherwise the D's will be losing so we can get a map that buck Biden low Approvals

As noted before we can get a 235/210 R H and D S 51/60 seats, 50 percent chance Divided Govt 40 percent chance of Secularist yand only 10 percent chance

Also there are 150M Females and 150M Men Females vote just as strongly for D's as Minorities Blks 15 percent and Latino and Arab 26 percent by 2045, when we turn 65 the Generation X thru Z elderly not old Fatal heart attacks aren't inevitable Arabs and Latinos are gonna be the majority

That's why Bailey, Cox and Mastriano all won the primaries and Ryan and Fetterman are leading and D's got clobbered in the OH and PA primaries females are voting R in the primaries and voting D in GE

President Biden isn't out campaigning. Campaigning is great for keeping approval levels higher than they otherwise would be. The Democrats running for Senate seats are of course out campaigning for election or re-election.

He's not making promises.

.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's just raised taxes and it will effect our wave insurance seats Sununu cut taxes and has an R legislatures and Sherman was tied in the last poll 40/39 and now Sununu regains his lead 48/29 and Abbott is still up 7 pts on Beto and Crist voted for Inflation Reduction Act and he is now down in a poll to DeSantis 47/43 to DeSantis and he lead in in a Listener poll 51/49 over the Summer

It wont effect our 303 states because Rs in IL with help of females nomination of Bailey instead of Sullivan, Michaels instead of Kleefisch in WI, Barnes will win and Kelly 54/40 over Masters, Ryan up 5.5 over Vance and Beasley up 4 on Budd and Demings tied

But, Cindy Axne is not ahead anymore after passage she is down 49/41 Reynolds has passed tax cuts


Warren, Brown and Ryan said on MSNBC and JayPaul yesterday said 50K student loan Discharge will be covered by the 3T wealth tax and Bullet trains will replace Amtrak, but Rs want us to continue to use air travel not bullet trains


If we get 55 Senate and 218 H they can pass a Wealth tax but I'd we get 55 Senate and 217/218 RH we still can win the H back in 24 with Biden on ballot because in 24 Casey, Kaine are gonna solidify the blue wall in 24

That's why Rs keep saying NC, OH and FL are Lean R they want to win the S back in 24, and they will never win the S back if we get 55 seats despite losing H DC statehood

But OH, NC and FL have 15 Blk and 26 Latino and Arab and 55/45 White female vote D, these were blue states with Bill Nelson, Brown, Hagen all won during Obama Biden yrs and Crist was Gov too they're not permanent red states, Hillary thought they were blue states too cause Obama won them abd Strickland and Murphy were ahead but Rubio ran for reelection and solidified FL after running for Prez Rs would have lost FL if Rubio didn't run for reelection

Strickland was ahead but he said Scalia death was good for American and lost by 20, he has endorsed Ryan and OH split it's votes between DeWine and Brown in 2018 it can do the same in 22 Vance will get 1 percent where Portman and DeWine got 6 percent of Blk vote blks don't like Vance

[Sir Mohamed]

Fox News, Aug. 6-9, 1002 RV (change from mid-July)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 58 (-1)

Strongly approve 19 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

GCB: D 41 (nc), R 41 (-3)

From R+3 to EVEN. Trends are real.

Yup, but they need to push the nearly 20% undecided. Otherwise, the poll is pretty much worthless on that question.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Ds are performing better than Biden Approvals is because Trump has low Approvals in the blue states that's why Ds are doing better on GCB

Also Newsom and Biden have 49% in Cali and Trump has a Disapproval of 60/40 in Cali that's why NEWSOM won 60/40 that's why Approvals aren't matching up

That's why NEWSOM is underperform Harris 52/25/8 I posted in GA primary, he is lame he has a Housing crisis in California but he will win again 66/34 because Trump not Biden Approvals in the state that's why I even voted for NEWSOM but don't have to ever vote for him again because he is losing to Harris