Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Suffolk/USA Today (compared to June)

39% approve (=)
56% approve (-1)

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/7_28_2022_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=4F682989707021DD87FA56D227603197F8E43228

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Approvals are going back to January levels of support, but we see no evidence in the state by state polls that D's are losing their level of support like Biden is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a fact that Gore, Kerry and Hillary lost substantial white female support instead of getting 55 percent of females it was tied, Blks did play a role but it was not the cause of losing, why is Biden so low at 39 percent in part NATO hasn't found a way to get this war over with it's anxiety, Biden Approvals have been suffering since war began, Russia Bear was right it wasn't gonna get above 41 percent but we still gotta vote and maps are blank on EDay no ratings, ratings or maps are there in case your party wins, I am not voting anyways I don't have a permanent address

Just like now the flux of polls isn't with Blk and Brown it's with soccer mom's that's why we get wild swings DeSantis plus 8 or Crist by two or Biden at 39 Approvals and Fetterman up 51/39

Biden Approvals aren't faltering because of job shortages there is a rent explosion crisis, a student loan debt crisis and rent out of control there are ample jobs why because we have a 30 T debt problem from stimulus spending and we have out all that short term housing assistance but no long term housing

If you are looking for new housing you gotta pay 2K most people that look for housing unless they are middle class are stuck in hotels, 2 room SROs or living with relatives, that's why Cori Bush hasn't endorsed Biden because Blks are being squeezed by rent explosion, it will continue even if it's Speaker McCarthy, he is from Bakersfield CA the most expensive part of CA and like Newsom they fix up Sofi Std for the Rams and Chase STD for Warriors instead of affordable housing

We need to open up Section 8 again too many are without housing

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

James Carville and Carol Moseley Braun already sent me emails endorsing Tim Ryan for Senate and confirmed Biden is in it on 24 we have a 303map in 24 and in PA and WI we have Baldwin and Casey incumbentts instead of R incumbentts we're gonna win the 303 map

Nothing says political winner like mentioning Carol Moseley Braun.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She was put as a surrogate for Biden by Carville to get Anita Hill off of Biden, don't forget James Carville got Bill Clinton out of hot water over Lewinsky

The reason why Gore lost was Elian Gonzalez in FL, Harris was gaining on Biden in the polls until Carol Mosley Braun endorsed Biden

Carol Mosley Braun will be there again in 28 if it's a showdown between Buttigieg and Harris, because he is LGBT but against Newsom or Ryan it won't mean much just Buttigieg won't beat Harris, similar to Kenyatta, v Fetterman and Lamb, no one endorsed Malcolm because he was Gay, but Barnes and Warnock are winning and they're not gay

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Rasmussen now has Biden up to a 45% approval rating

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'm expecting Biden's approval to drop down to 35% now that he's having breakthrough success in Congress, passing a bunch of popular bipartisan legislation, and seeing drops in gas and food prices and the markets pointing back up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares about Approvals D's lead in GA, NC, OH and PA SEN RACES


https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822.php

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm expecting Biden's approval to drop down to 35% now that he's having breakthrough success in Congress, passing a bunch of popular bipartisan legislation, and seeing drops in gas and food prices and the markets pointing back up.

Biden Approvals aren't dropping to 35 percent it's gonna remain at 44

44 has been his Average it looks like a 234/201 RH and 53/47 D Senate, DIVIDED GOVT DS NET NC, OH, PA net 3 seats  that's only if we lose all those NY seats but H can be won back with Biden on the ballot in 24 we wiped away a 15 RH majority in 2018

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I'm expecting Biden's approval to drop down to 35% now that he's having breakthrough success in Congress, passing a bunch of popular bipartisan legislation, and seeing drops in gas and food prices and the markets pointing back up.

Simply because of the big scary word “recession”

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen now has Biden up to a 45% approval rating

They use a 3-day rolling average.  Sometimes they get a weird outlier in a daily sample that throws off their average until it rolls out, so we'll have to see if this holds up (I'd bet it won't).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump had a 40/54 Approvals in 2018/20 and netted S seats in 2018 and H races for 2020, McArthur and many users keep looking at Biden Approvals and think 2010 but Approvals obviously aren't the same as they once we're otherwise it will be a Nightmare scenario, McArthur says Biden will be at 35 they have been saying this since Ukraine started

Alot of R users on the Forum are from Atlasia running for officers, so they constantly talk 245 RH and 54 R S seats son they can get elected but the Rs haven't cracked the blue wall since 2016 when Trump was an not corrupted he seem nice

That's why users keep pushing this R nut map narrative eventhough it's a 303 map with wave insurance

If you look at Twitter underneath the polls it's the same response as users give on Forum OH is red but Obama ran with Biden and won OH it's a purple state

[pbrower2a]

President Biden is not a great speaker like Obama. What he says in public never impresses. He has had a problem with stuttering, and stutterers typically overcompensate with blandness. Trump was always in campaign mode while President. Either way we were seeing Obama or Trump in campaign form because Obama's style of communication is much the same at all times,. and Trump is always pushing. Both are shown at their full potential in a campaign.

What President Biden says in public might look better in print. Biden hasn't made glaring mistakes and hasn't said such glaring insults as has Trump. He may be relying upon his achievements to convince swing voters; the political base for both Parties is intact, so that will not change except for demographics (young voters are about D+20 and they are replacing those voters who die off from age 50 on, who are similarly about R+5).

The best hope for a Biden re-election is for the Republicans to run a "can't-miss" nominee who satisfies all the key constituencies while mocking the incumbent for failures. For that, 1948 is a model.

"Congratulations! Tom Dewey...
You won by a landslide today.
Through thick and through/
We knew you would win/  
'Cause who'd ever vote to let Truman stay in!
Congratulations, Tom Dewey!
Your Republican dreams have come true!
Here's a victory roar
for President number 34!
The White House is waiting for you!"

Really, Dewey ran a lousy campaign, and except for 1964 he is the last Republican nominee to lose some states that have never gone for a Democratic nominee (Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Wyoming) since then. Had it not been for the secession of Southern racists from the Democratic Party in 1948, Truman would have won in a landslide.  

No two electoral years are perfect analogues, the closest typically being the 46-to-49-state blowouts and successive elections involving an incumbent. Even 2020 looks clearly different from the two Obama victories.

Republicans can defend Trump, but if they do, Democrats have the bungled response to COVID-19 and the despotic behavior of the former President. Republicans can't win by pushing something similar to Trump unless America has a 1929-style or 2008-style economic meltdown or some international debacle of military or diplomatic matters. Demographics suggest that Republicans need some different pitch from that of 2016 and 2020.

Biden has yet to make serious mistakes in his function as President. That matters greatly. he has made far fewer than Trump in the first year and a half as President.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, it's important to note 2010, Richardson, Dole, Blagojevich, and Granholm we're all TL and Sandoval was a Latino moderate in the mode of Kennedy that's why Rs did so well in those rust belt states, all the D Govs are running for reelection and gave out stimulus checks that's why NEWSOM and Grisham and Reynolds whom all gave out 500 in stimulus checks whom aren't that popular are winning and DeSantis might lose because there are many Puerto Ricans that want Statehood and Crist or Fried will be checked by an R Legislature

Ryan and Beasley can win, Brown and DeWine won in 2018 and Cunningham lost by 0.5 less than Biden lost NC bye 1.5

100 days to the Election

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 30-Aug. 2, 1500 adults including 1325 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 13 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 14 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (nc), R 39 (+1)

[GeneralMacArthur]

The fact that Biden's approval rating remains unchanged despite this being by far the best week of his presidency just shows how worthless this metric is.  Democrats scored a huge electoral victory last night despite everyone supposedly hating Biden.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Bold prediction; by Christmas Biden’s approval ratings will be 46-47%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bold prediction; by Christmas Biden’s approval ratings will be 46-47%.

Democracy Corp has Da ahead on GCB 50)48I make a wave insurance map not an R nut map and that poll that has Ryan ahead 51/38 isn't worthless it was a legitimate poll no other poll has Vance AHEAD

I don't know what the Mods are talking about it's a fake poll but I have it on my map at least

[LostInOhio]

The fact that Biden's approval rating remains unchanged despite this being by far the best week of his presidency just shows how worthless this metric is.  Democrats scored a huge electoral victory last night despite everyone supposedly hating Biden.

I think his approval is completely divorced from his accomplishments & successes. People don’t seem to like him, regardless of any legislation he signs off on or how many terrorists he kills.

It is also largely driven by two things, the media and young people. Disliking and mocking him has become a meme at this point among the young and the media has completely snowed him politically. Fox News is a big culprit but the lower approval ratings and “everyone hates him” line has become repeated ad naseaum in the mainstream media as well. The fact of the matter is that Democrats always seem to need a charismatic figure to unify the party or they are simply unhappy.

When standing at the ballot box & faced with Trump, however, every single one of those voters will come home.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Believe me it's a tough election cycle for the D's but it's the same 303 map that we left off at in 2020 but partisan trends don't act right in Midterms, Brown and DeWine won in 2018 and Scott, Sununu and Hogan won in 2018 and we came close in TX and FL DeSantis always underpolls in polling, but it' more likely we wind up with a Secular Trifecta than an R Congress by the very fact it's a 303 map all our incumbentts Govs unlike in 2010 whom were TL are winning reelection D's incumbentts not Rs because they give out 500 Stimulus checks

Again,, it's more likely we get a Secularist Trifecta than an R Congress because it's a 303 map but we can very well have an RH and DS too

It's a tough election you don't overdo it on donations I only give to Tim Ryan because his seat will give us wave insurance for 24 in case we lose the H in 22 we will have 53 votes for 24 and win back the H and win the Secularist Trifecta then

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_080322/

GCB still benefits Ds 39/34 so this inevitable red wave isn't inevitable

We are gonna replicate the blue wall and the rest is wave insurance for a D H and 303 map reaffirms the Senate

[President Johnson]

Bold prediction; by Christmas Biden’s approval ratings will be 46-47%.

I think that really depends on whether inflation is cooling down or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bold prediction; by Christmas Biden’s approval ratings will be 46-47%.

I think that really depends on whether inflation is cooling down or not.

It's a 303 map anyways and we a chance in FL Gov, OH and NC Sen GA is gonna go to a runoff anyways and it's not impossible for D's to get 224 H seats with a 54 Senate Majority

FL can send Charlie Crist or Fried to Tallahassee with an R state legislature just like Andy Beshear has an R Legislature , DeSantiss underpolls anyways and he is losing to Biden in the polls let's wait until EDay, partisan trends don't act right in Midterms, the reason why Cheri Beasley is doing so well Cooper has a 60 percent Approvals

2018 was not an 80/75 M vote turnout we won OH Sen and FL was close and SUNUNU, Hogan and Scott won and we still lost FL, MO, In and ND Senate at the same time we won big in H

I have long said this partisan trends don't act right in Midterms than in Prez Elections we won 41 H seats and we didn't win 80 M to 75 M votes like in 2020

That's why I make a wave insurance map not an R nut map the Monmouth poll have us up 39/34 and Democracy Corp 50/48

That is a 224 DH and 54/46 Senate net WI, PA, OH, NC win. FL, KS, GA Govs  like John Bolton has us up in PA, NC and MO and UT Sen is 4 prs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There will be Provisional ballots like last time I am sure that's why OR Gov is tilt D not Lean R BECAUSE there will be Provisional ballots for Tina K with Ron Wyden, they have yet to poll the OR Gov wmrave with Ron Wyden the polls are biased

No AR or KS or SC Gov or OR Senate poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's all remember IN, NC and AK were Red states back in 2008 and Biden ran with Obama and they turned blue in October and 2012 Romney was poised to win FL, and Biden ran with Obama, any purple state can turn blue again, LATE, 2020 it was a different animal we were running against an incumbent Trump which unemployment was going down from 9 to 7 that's why Rs overperformed in addition to stimulus checks but Collins is gone in 26 she refused to raise taxes on BBB, Filibuster the Voting Rights and there aren't ANYMORE stimulus checks except enhanced child tax credit

That's why I am so glad I won't have to vote for NEWSOM not only do I not have to vote for him in CA, he beautiful Hollywood he won't be the Nominee in 28, he is down 56/29 to Harris, if anyone surges it Buttigieg or Tim Ryan if he wins his Senate seat