Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Person Man]

D panic mode
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1459757589495889923?t=DCMkKpayrWubBiKQ...

Dems need to get things together. If Biden can’t deliver, he shouldn’t run in ‘24. Maybe he should resign prior to that. I say that as someone who admires and likes him. But if he’s a detriment to the party’s chances, well then…..

This isn't parliamentary system where PMs resign because of that. If it was, Biden could actually put his agenda on the floor of parliament and ask for a vote together with motion of (no) confidence. So either his majority votes for it or the PM resigns as a result of losing the vote.

The only Democrat to run for re-election and lose is Jimmy Carter. He might not run if 2022 is bad enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D panic mode
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1459757589495889923?t=DCMkKpayrWubBiKQ...

Dems need to get things together. If Biden can’t deliver, he shouldn’t run in ‘24. Maybe he should resign prior to that. I say that as someone who admires and likes him. But if he’s a detriment to the party’s chances, well then…..

This isn't parliamentary system where PMs resign because of that. If it was, Biden could actually put his agenda on the floor of parliament and ask for a vote together with motion of (no) confidence. So either his majority votes for it or the PM resigns as a result of losing the vote.

The only Democrat to run for re-election and lose is Jimmy Carter. He might not run if 2022 is bad enough.

Lol it's a 304 Senate map abd if you look at 24 it solidifies the EC map, I'm not gonna go thru Senate races but Bob Casey Jr and PA puts Biden over top abd so does Kaine put Biden over the top


But I know the 2024/ board is obsessed with Kamala Harris whom isn't ready to be Prex I'm 24

[😥]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

Because Americans are f**king stupid.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

Yup. Dems are just hilariously inept in selling their accomplishments and policies.

[BG-NY]

It’s possible that group of people wants more government intervention in economic issues, less government intervention in social issues?

[windjammer]

2022 is going to end up like a more polarized 2010...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s possible that group of people wants more government intervention in economic issues, less government intervention in social issues?

This may be true, but what does not make sense is the big difference between Biden's economic approvals and the approvals on his big economic bills.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1459920694532358144?s=20

I really don't get these numbers. You approve policies of this administration, you approve Biden's agenda but why in the hell you disapprove his presidency?

Voters are not the smartest people on the planet.

[roxas11]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

People are increasingly not living in reality anymore and social media shapes how they see everything from the economy to covid. Biden could have the greatest economy of all time and the lowest inflation ever and most people will still be convinced that things are going horrible just because something they saw on Facebook

Here is an example of just how crazy some of the results of the ABC poll is

63% of respondents said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency. A full 45% said he’s done “little or nothing” — that’s worse than the numbers for then-Presidents DONALD TRUMP, BARACK OBAMA or BILL CLINTON

Just 31% said he’s kept most of his major campaign promises — also a worse figure than Trump, Obama or Clinton received.


even looking at it objectively this is insane and it just shows how disconnected people are from what is happening in the real world because Biden has easily gotten more of his agenda passed than trump or bill Clinton yet based on this poll people are acting like this guy has literally not passed anything at all since he has been president. both bill Clinton and trump failed to pass their first major bill yet they are still giving more credit them Biden, who has so far successfully passed 2 Major Bills that he promised the American people he would

Also In the WaPo-ABC poll 70% rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Just looking at these numbers, you would have no idea that this recently happened under Biden


I have to admit in my lifetime, I have never seen anything like the situation that is playing out with Biden. Biden may truly be the first president that have ever seen get low poll numbers at a time when he the overall economy is doing well and while he has been successful at passing his agenda

Even the comparison with jimmy carter or Gerald Ford does not work because the economy was way worse in the 1970s and was heading into a recession at the end. Both of those presidents dealt with high gas prices and inflation yet none of them were rated as low as Biden is at this point, despite the fact that Biden has a way better economy than they did.

even Obama, who was in the middle of the great recession and was dealing with high gas prices in early 2012 was getting better numbers than Biden.
  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls ate meaningless a yr before an Election

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

People are increasingly not living in reality anymore and social media shapes how they see everything from the economy to covid. Biden could have the greatest economy of all time and the lowest inflation ever and most people will still be convinced that things are going horrible just because something they saw on Facebook

Here is an example of just how crazy some of the results of the ABC poll is

63% of respondents said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency. A full 45% said he’s done “little or nothing” — that’s worse than the numbers for then-Presidents DONALD TRUMP, BARACK OBAMA or BILL CLINTON

Just 31% said he’s kept most of his major campaign promises — also a worse figure than Trump, Obama or Clinton received.


even looking at it objectively this is insane and it just shows how disconnected people are from what is happening in the real world because Biden has easily gotten more of his agenda passed than trump or bill Clinton yet based on this poll people are acting like this guy has literally not passed anything at all since he has been president. both bill Clinton and trump failed to pass their first major bill yet they are still giving more credit them Biden, who has so far successfully passed 2 Major Bills that he promised the American people he would

Also In the WaPo-ABC poll 70% rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Just looking at these numbers, you would have no idea that this recently happened under Biden


I have to admit in my lifetime, I have never seen anything like the situation that is playing out with Biden. Biden may truly be the first president that have ever seen get low poll numbers at a time when he the overall economy is doing well and while he has been successful at passing his agenda

Even the comparison with jimmy carter or Gerald Ford does not work because the economy was way worse in the 1970s and was heading into a recession at the end. Both of those presidents dealt with high gas prices and inflation yet none of them were rated as low as Biden is at this point, despite the fact that Biden has a way better economy than they did.

even Obama, who was in the middle of the great recession and was dealing with high gas prices in early 2012 was getting better numbers than Biden.
  

I once watched a video about ppl rating Biden, it’s quite clear they have no idea what’s going on. Most of them get their news from the media who for some reason keep pushing all this inflation BS

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

People are increasingly not living in reality anymore and social media shapes how they see everything from the economy to covid. Biden could have the greatest economy of all time and the lowest inflation ever and most people will still be convinced that things are going horrible just because something they saw on Facebook

Here is an example of just how crazy some of the results of the ABC poll is

63% of respondents said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency. A full 45% said he’s done “little or nothing” — that’s worse than the numbers for then-Presidents DONALD TRUMP, BARACK OBAMA or BILL CLINTON

Just 31% said he’s kept most of his major campaign promises — also a worse figure than Trump, Obama or Clinton received.


even looking at it objectively this is insane and it just shows how disconnected people are from what is happening in the real world because Biden has easily gotten more of his agenda passed than trump or bill Clinton yet based on this poll people are acting like this guy has literally not passed anything at all since he has been president. both bill Clinton and trump failed to pass their first major bill yet they are still giving more credit them Biden, who has so far successfully passed 2 Major Bills that he promised the American people he would

Also In the WaPo-ABC poll 70% rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Just looking at these numbers, you would have no idea that this recently happened under Biden


I have to admit in my lifetime, I have never seen anything like the situation that is playing out with Biden. Biden may truly be the first president that have ever seen get low poll numbers at a time when he the overall economy is doing well and while he has been successful at passing his agenda

Even the comparison with jimmy carter or Gerald Ford does not work because the economy was way worse in the 1970s and was heading into a recession at the end. Both of those presidents dealt with high gas prices and inflation yet none of them were rated as low as Biden is at this point, despite the fact that Biden has a way better economy than they did.

even Obama, who was in the middle of the great recession and was dealing with high gas prices in early 2012 was getting better numbers than Biden.
  

I once watched a video about ppl rating Biden, it’s quite clear they have no idea what’s going on. Most of them get their news from the media who for some reason keep pushing all this inflation BS

I think it’s also a perception problem. Biden looks old. He fumbles his words. He doesn’t appear to have his party under control.

It all adds up, and many voters have a hard time admitting when they’ve misjudged somebody. I think Biden is cooked, regardless of what he gets done.

[BG-NY]

Something people need to be more careful about when reading polls - look at averages of trends, not at raw averages. Polls have inherent biases that no degree of Longroom or 538 unskewing can mend. You can however see how they’ve changed to monitor current climate and trajectory.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

Nuh. You were totally wrong about VA/NJ race, and you are imo wrong now.

As I've been saying

• recovery is moderately good ≠ economy is good. Economy is still in deep hole compared to pre-pandemic. 5 mln jobs fewer
• inflation rate is bigger than wage growths = real incomes are falling
• last year/earlier this year you had helicopter money + generous UI - not any longer.

Btw, first time Biden is -10 in RV/LV on 538. Moreover, Biden is more hated now than Trump was right before the election. Obvs, he still has a lot of time to recover.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/voters/

[BG-NY]

With Biden’s continued decline, is it still “Morning Again In America”?

[roxas11]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

People are increasingly not living in reality anymore and social media shapes how they see everything from the economy to covid. Biden could have the greatest economy of all time and the lowest inflation ever and most people will still be convinced that things are going horrible just because something they saw on Facebook

Here is an example of just how crazy some of the results of the ABC poll is

63% of respondents said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency. A full 45% said he’s done “little or nothing” — that’s worse than the numbers for then-Presidents DONALD TRUMP, BARACK OBAMA or BILL CLINTON

Just 31% said he’s kept most of his major campaign promises — also a worse figure than Trump, Obama or Clinton received.


even looking at it objectively this is insane and it just shows how disconnected people are from what is happening in the real world because Biden has easily gotten more of his agenda passed than trump or bill Clinton yet based on this poll people are acting like this guy has literally not passed anything at all since he has been president. both bill Clinton and trump failed to pass their first major bill yet they are still giving more credit them Biden, who has so far successfully passed 2 Major Bills that he promised the American people he would

Also In the WaPo-ABC poll 70% rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Just looking at these numbers, you would have no idea that this recently happened under Biden


I have to admit in my lifetime, I have never seen anything like the situation that is playing out with Biden. Biden may truly be the first president that have ever seen get low poll numbers at a time when he the overall economy is doing well and while he has been successful at passing his agenda

Even the comparison with jimmy carter or Gerald Ford does not work because the economy was way worse in the 1970s and was heading into a recession at the end. Both of those presidents dealt with high gas prices and inflation yet none of them were rated as low as Biden is at this point, despite the fact that Biden has a way better economy than they did.

even Obama, who was in the middle of the great recession and was dealing with high gas prices in early 2012 was getting better numbers than Biden.
  

I once watched a video about ppl rating Biden, it’s quite clear they have no idea what’s going on. Most of them get their news from the media who for some reason keep pushing all this inflation BS

I think it’s also a perception problem. Biden looks old. He fumbles his words. He doesn’t appear to have his party under control.

It all adds up, and many voters have a hard time admitting when they’ve misjudged somebody. I think Biden is cooked, regardless of what he gets done.

Ronald Reagan also had this same problem and his approval numbers actually dropped to 35 percent by the time he got to his second year in office. Reagan's numbers in 1982 was actually way worse than Biden is right now.

But again, even that comparison does not really work because unemployment was at 10.8 percent in 1982. People thought Reagan old and out of touch, but that was mainly because the economy really was awful at the time

In Biden case the overall economy is not really that bad at all and it defiantly not even close to being as bad as it was in 1982. Biden problem is that the American people are ignoring the fact that he passed major bills while in office while they are also acting like the economy in 2021 is worse than The great depression and The great recession lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

Nuh. You were totally wrong about VA/NJ race, and you are imo wrong now.

As I've been saying

• recovery is moderately good ≠ economy is good. Economy is still in deep hole compared to pre-pandemic. 5 mln jobs fewer
• inflation rate is bigger than wage growths = real incomes are falling
• last year/earlier this year you had helicopter money + generous UI - not any longer.

Btw, first time Biden is -10 in RV/LV on 538. Moreover, Biden is more hated now than Trump was right before the election. Obvs, he still has a lot of time to recover.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/voters/

You are going bye polls a yr before an Election, Biden only has to get to 50 or better come Election day not the yr before and infrastructure the Debt Ceiling and Govt shutdown are allll complicating matters because Biden doesn't want RS input, he 9nly listen to Ds which is a far cry from campaign as a Moderate

He is a moderate on the stimulus he is listening to Employers not to give another 1400 due to Labor shortages


Some people are milking Disability during Pandemic and not getting on Ticket to work and been on Disability more than 5 yrs


You be on Ticket to work more than 5 yrs if you have a moderate Disability

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

Nuh. You were totally wrong about VA/NJ race, and you are imo wrong now.

As I've been saying

• recovery is moderately good ≠ economy is good. Economy is still in deep hole compared to pre-pandemic. 5 mln jobs fewer
• inflation rate is bigger than wage growths = real incomes are falling
• last year/earlier this year you had helicopter money + generous UI - not any longer.

Btw, first time Biden is -10 in RV/LV on 538. Moreover, Biden is more hated now than Trump was right before the election. Obvs, he still has a lot of time to recover.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/voters/

You are going bye polls a yr before an Election, Biden only has to get to 50 or better come Election day not the yr before and infrastructure the Debt Ceiling and Govt shutdown are allll complicating matters because Biden doesn't want RS input, he 9nly listen to Ds which is a far cry from campaign as a Moderate

He is a moderate on the stimulus he is listening to Employers not to give another 1400 due to Labor shortages


Some people are milking Disability during Pandemic and not getting on Ticket to work and been on Disability more than 5 yrs


You be on Ticket to work more than 5 yrs if you have a moderate Disability

Historical pattern says, I'm more likely to be right than you are.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1459902596693602311

(CNN)President Joe Biden's approval rating is at its lowest point since he took office. His approval rating has slid into the low 40s this month. And while the President has plenty of time to recover before his potential reelection in 2024, history suggests that his chances of becoming popular and Democrats gaining ground by the midterms in 2022 are small.

Take a look at every president's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) since the end of World War II. Biden's at about -9 points net approval rating right now. Specifically, we'll examine all elected presidents at this point into their first term and compare that to where they stood during their first midterm.

It turns out that among elected presidents there's actually a pretty clear correlation (+0.83 on a scale of -1 to +1) between their net approval rating at this point and a year from now. Most presidents tended to lose ground from this point forward. The average president saw his net approval rating drop by 13 points.

It seems more likely than usual for Biden to see some improvement in his popularity compared to most presidents. A simple statistical model predicts just that. It has Biden getting to about a -5 point net approval rating compared to the -9 net approval rating right now. Additionally, the dataset is relatively small (at just 10 presidents), so Biden could prove to be an outlier.

Still, Biden shouldn't be looking to Trump for too much inspiration. Beyond the fact that Trump was still unpopular come the 2018 midterms, Trump had an approval rating of 80% among Republicans at this time. Biden is in the 90s with Democrats. All Trump needed to do was coalesce his base to be in a better position. Biden's already done that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

Nuh. You were totally wrong about VA/NJ race, and you are imo wrong now.

As I've been saying

• recovery is moderately good ≠ economy is good. Economy is still in deep hole compared to pre-pandemic. 5 mln jobs fewer
• inflation rate is bigger than wage growths = real incomes are falling
• last year/earlier this year you had helicopter money + generous UI - not any longer.

Btw, first time Biden is -10 in RV/LV on 538. Moreover, Biden is more hated now than Trump was right before the election. Obvs, he still has a lot of time to recover.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/voters/

You are going bye polls a yr before an Election, Biden only has to get to 50 or better come Election day not the yr before and infrastructure the Debt Ceiling and Govt shutdown are allll complicating matters because Biden doesn't want RS input, he 9nly listen to Ds which is a far cry from campaign as a Moderate

He is a moderate on the stimulus he is listening to Employers not to give another 1400 due to Labor shortages


Some people are milking Disability during Pandemic and not getting on Ticket to work and been on Disability more than 5 yrs


You be on Ticket to work more than 5 yrs if you have a moderate Disability

Historical pattern says, I'm more likely to be right than you are.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1459902596693602311

(CNN)President Joe Biden's approval rating is at its lowest point since he took office. His approval rating has slid into the low 40s this month. And while the President has plenty of time to recover before his potential reelection in 2024, history suggests that his chances of becoming popular and Democrats gaining ground by the midterms in 2022 are small.

Take a look at every president's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) since the end of World War II. Biden's at about -9 points net approval rating right now. Specifically, we'll examine all elected presidents at this point into their first term and compare that to where they stood during their first midterm.

It turns out that among elected presidents there's actually a pretty clear correlation (+0.83 on a scale of -1 to +1) between their net approval rating at this point and a year from now. Most presidents tended to lose ground from this point forward. The average president saw his net approval rating drop by 13 points.

It seems more likely than usual for Biden to see some improvement in his popularity compared to most presidents. A simple statistical model predicts just that. It has Biden getting to about a -5 point net approval rating compared to the -9 net approval rating right now. Additionally, the dataset is relatively small (at just 10 presidents), so Biden could prove to be an outlier.

Still, Biden shouldn't be looking to Trump for too much inspiration. Beyond the fact that Trump was still unpopular come the 2018 midterms, Trump had an approval rating of 80% among Republicans at this time. Biden is in the 90s with Democrats. All Trump needed to do was coalesce his base to be in a better position. Biden's already done that.

No, State by state polling not Approval ratings show DS lead in every 394 state except for GA


Tied in WI Sen

9 pt up in PA Sen

4 pts up in AZ Sen

CA Gov 63/37 if Biden was so low Elder would of held  Newsom to 50


As you were saying Pbower2A already said Approvals don't necessarily match up with state by state polling until Election so you are wrong very wrong

Other pollsters have it 48 percent Approvals not 40

So go on red state blog and tell that to them I am not listening

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1459762763043991552
Post BIF too. Looks like it wasn’t a game-changer.
Might be BBB or bust.

Biden is a failed president.

You are a failed Atlas poster, since you haven't left the forum for a year like you promised.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been 5 yrs since RS cracked the 304 blue wall since 2016 with Gary Johnson and Hillary Clinton, RS haven't cracked it since

[roxas11]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

Nuh. You were totally wrong about VA/NJ race, and you are imo wrong now.

As I've been saying

• recovery is moderately good ≠ economy is good. Economy is still in deep hole compared to pre-pandemic. 5 mln jobs fewer
• inflation rate is bigger than wage growths = real incomes are falling
• last year/earlier this year you had helicopter money + generous UI - not any longer.

Btw, first time Biden is -10 in RV/LV on 538. Moreover, Biden is more hated now than Trump was right before the election. Obvs, he still has a lot of time to recover.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/voters/

Vaccinated Russian Bear you have become very good at lying about me and making stuff up. You know full well that I never made any big statements or predictions about The New Jersey race yet here you are claiming that somehow I was wrong about it.

And you once again, are misrepresenting my comments about the Virginia race because this is what I actually said on election day

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

True. No one should be confident of anything. There's a ton of votes still to be counted and anything can still happen but I do have one side as a slight favorite based on said data.

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think the larger problem for the GOP is that the underwhelming turnout so far does show that maybe Republicans were simply not as excited about this election as the media thought they would be. I remember the 2010 Virginia race and how fired up the Republicans were at the time and so far this current race is nothing like that at all.

The turnout is so far telling is us that there is very little enthusiasm for this race and if terry mcauliffe does win that would be a big warning sign for the GOP going forward

Now, as I said before, Glenn Youngkin can still win this election if things pick-up for the GOP throughout the day, but at some point the Republican turnout is going to have to get a lot better than it currently is otherwise terry mcauliffe is going to win this

turnout for the GOP was not great early in the day and that was what I was reacting to yet even at the time I kept saying that Youngkin can still win if turnout for Republicans pick up later in the day yet for some reason you purposely left that part out...

As I said before is got no problem with you attacking me, but if you are going to do it at least be honest about what I actually said instead of just making stuff up

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The new WaPo-ABC poll confirms everything I have been saying for a while now

People are increasingly not living in reality anymore and social media shapes how they see everything from the economy to covid. Biden could have the greatest economy of all time and the lowest inflation ever and most people will still be convinced that things are going horrible just because something they saw on Facebook

Here is an example of just how crazy some of the results of the ABC poll is

63% of respondents said Biden has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” so far in his presidency. A full 45% said he’s done “little or nothing” — that’s worse than the numbers for then-Presidents DONALD TRUMP, BARACK OBAMA or BILL CLINTON

Just 31% said he’s kept most of his major campaign promises — also a worse figure than Trump, Obama or Clinton received.


even looking at it objectively this is insane and it just shows how disconnected people are from what is happening in the real world because Biden has easily gotten more of his agenda passed than trump or bill Clinton yet based on this poll people are acting like this guy has literally not passed anything at all since he has been president. both bill Clinton and trump failed to pass their first major bill yet they are still giving more credit them Biden, who has so far successfully passed 2 Major Bills that he promised the American people he would

Also In the WaPo-ABC poll 70% rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Just looking at these numbers, you would have no idea that this recently happened under Biden


I have to admit in my lifetime, I have never seen anything like the situation that is playing out with Biden. Biden may truly be the first president that have ever seen get low poll numbers at a time when he the overall economy is doing well and while he has been successful at passing his agenda

Even the comparison with jimmy carter or Gerald Ford does not work because the economy was way worse in the 1970s and was heading into a recession at the end. Both of those presidents dealt with high gas prices and inflation yet none of them were rated as low as Biden is at this point, despite the fact that Biden has a way better economy than they did.

even Obama, who was in the middle of the great recession and was dealing with high gas prices in early 2012 was getting better numbers than Biden.
  

I once watched a video about ppl rating Biden, it’s quite clear they have no idea what’s going on. Most of them get their news from the media who for some reason keep pushing all this inflation BS

I think it’s also a perception problem. Biden looks old. He fumbles his words. He doesn’t appear to have his party under control.

It all adds up, and many voters have a hard time admitting when they’ve misjudged somebody. I think Biden is cooked, regardless of what he gets done.

If Obama performed like Biden is performing now he would have 65-70% approvals. Biden dosent strike the public as someone who would go bold and big. So a lot of his agenda goes overlooked. Also the environment now could also be credited this may be the new norm for presidents no matter how good they are, even if they save the world from a meteor crash ppl will still be blaming them cause the meteor ended up hitting Jupiter instead.

[BG-NY]

It's been 5 yrs since RS cracked the 304 blue wall since 2016 with Gary Johnson and Hillary Clinton, RS haven't cracked it since

2016 Gary Johnson voters were more likely to have Trump as their second choice than Clinton, by a 2:1 margin.

In 2020 however, 2016 Gary Johnson voters who voted for the D or R voted Biden at a 60:40 clip over Trump.

In general you shouldn’t try and predict how third party voters would vote otherwise. Most would probably leave the ballot blank, or stay home. Or those who would vote D/R wouldn’t make a huge difference. 1968 and 1992 (not even 1980 or 1996) are the only two where it conceivably could have made a difference in outcome, but even then it almost assuredly would benefit the EC winner more.