Who will win the debates?

[kelpie]

On that topic, I thought this article was fascinating.  It looks at how Bush's debating style has changed and Kerry's hasn't.


Bush 314
Kerry 224

[MODU]

As I mentioned before, Kerry has yet to come up with any details on any of the issues except for those he has borrowed from others in the past.  Until Kerry can come up with something original, and in detail, he will not win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember Bill Weld...

[The Vorlon]

I am the last guy on earth to accurately answer this question.

In 2000 I though Gore utterly killed Bush in the first debate, which according to all the polls Bush won...

I'll say Bush by a bit...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am the last guy on earth to accurately answer this question.

In 2000 I though Gore utterly killed[ Bush in the first debate, which according to all the polls Bush won...

Same here actually...

[bullmoose88]

I am the last guy on earth to accurately answer this question.

In 2000 I though Gore utterly killed[ Bush in the first debate, which according to all the polls Bush won...

Same here actually...

I agree...especially in terms of answers...but Gore came off as pompous and too intelligent for his own good (if thats possible...Gore seems to have proven it was). That was enough for the people on SNL to lambast the guy while adding to Bush's populist image campaign.

[elcorazon]

Bush will benefit.  Most people instinctively realize that Bush is a bit of an underachiever, but then they see him on stage and they think he's not so bad, and they kinda like him, and Kerry'll do something controversial like sound snide or point out an error Bush makes and the media will think he was being mean (God forbid) and say Bush acquitted himself well and suddenly Bush will do better in the polls.

Hopefully Kerry will be ahead already and/or there will be time for him to regain the lead before election day.

[JNB]

 It depends on who shows up. If it is the down home, everyday man Bush who showed up in 2000, he will win, if it is the Bush who has been in the media in the last few months, the one who has a poor excuse for his state of the union adress, than Kerry could win the debate. We all agree Kerry needs focus, he has a few months still, I still contend he is better than Dukakis was, but at the same time, Kerry needs to keep focus on a couple of issues.

[lidaker]

Hard to say. Kerry will KILL Bush in making arguments, Bush will probably benefit from his "likability". Kerry is not as stiff as Gore though, he can adjust to different settings and is better with people than Gore was. He is also more self-confident, which is a huge plus.

[Blue Rectangle]

Bush.  Gore lost in 2000 due entirely to personality and Kerry seems to be headed for the same fate.
That being said, I think that the debates will slightly amplify the lead of whoever is ahead.  If Bush is ahead, Kerry's natural arrogance will be perceived as desperate sniping.  If Kerry is ahead, Bush's common man personality will come off as someone who can't solve problems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry. Bush looks like a total idiot every time he opens his mouth. But maybe I'm "misunderestimating" him. LOL!

[© tweed]

Marginally Bush.  For a dumb guy he's a good debater.

[Hearnes]

Kerry!!

He will follow Bartlet´s example in The West Wing regarding to the debates.

[cole]

I'd say Kerry, but that's because everytime Bush speaks, it makes my skin crawl.

[zachman]

Kerry. Bush looks like a total idiot every time he opens his mouth. But maybe I'm "misunderestimating" him. LOL!

Bush wins on expectations. Everyone in the media treats him as stupid, and he clearly isn't, and his supporters like that he is doing a better job and knows so much of what he is doing based on their expectations. Although it is fun, don't let him get away with being seemingly stupid. As for the debates I don't think they'll change many people's leanings.

[opebo]

Kerry is just as annoying and pompous as Gore, but actually slightly more boring.

[Blazers93]

Obviously Kerry will win the debates. Whenever Bush talks, Kerry benefits and Bush can not speak right because he is stupid and he is just reading what Carl Rove wrote the night before.

[WalterMitty]

gore is /was a good debater.  however, he couldnt conceal his a-hole personality.

kerry is dull and boring.  i think bush will perform very well against him.  i dont think kerry did very well in the primary debates.

[Storebought]

One of my friends actually voted for Nader based on the (dreadful) performance of both Bush and Gore during the 2000 debates.

Bush *can* win the debates if he returns to his traditional stentorian, authoritative tone he assumed after Sept 11. As it stands now, Bush is as longwinded and pedantic as any typical Washington insider.

[Lunar]

"Win" the debates?

I don't know..coinflip.  I'll go out on a limb and say Kerry because his campaign managers will have learned from what Gore did wrong and what Bush did right in 2000.

[emergingDmajority1]

Kerry is a mediocre campaigner, though he becomes superb when the campaign winds down, hence the "great closer" tag. He pretty much saves most of his energy for the big push.

Kerry can be a very solid debater, several notches above the 10 dems that ran this year. I'd put him somewhere between Gore and Clinton. He never comes across as arrogant in the debates.

[Rococo4]

Obviously Kerry will win the debates. Whenever Bush talks, Kerry benefits and Bush can not speak right because he is stupid and he is just reading what Carl Rove wrote the night before.

That seems real knowledgeable......its Karl Rove anyways.  Bush isnt the one speaking in front of like 40 people everytime he goes somehwere because he is so boring.

[Smash255]

Kerry will win the debate, Bush speaking skills are horrendous.  We all have seen how flustered Bush has gotten when he has to answer questions on his feet that he hasn't had in the past.  No matter how well Rove & company train Bush for the debates he will screw something up & Kerry is a good debater.  

[The Vorlon]

Bush "wins" if he doesn't lose.

The legitimately undecided voters who tune into the debates have in their mind the media's version of Bush - a bumbling idiot who cannot tie his shoe laces with out help.

The expectations are so low that assuming he does not pull a "Ford" and "liberate" Tibet or something, he can't hurt himself.

Also, a lot of people are themselves afraid of public speaking, and seeing a guy a tad awkward is something most people have a baseline sympathy for.

All I know is that every time Bush had a big speach, his poll numbers go up a bit.

I don't pretend to understand it, but it seems to be true.

[Beet]

Bush "wins" if he doesn't lose.

The legitimately undecided voters who tune into the debates have in their mind the media's version of Bush - a bumbling idiot who cannot tie his shoe laces with out help.

The expectations are so low that assuming he does not pull a "Ford" and "liberate" Tibet or something, he can't hurt himself.

Also, a lot of people are themselves afraid of public speaking, and seeing a guy a tad awkward is something most people have a baseline sympathy for.

All I know id thatevery time Bush had a big speach, his poll numbers go up a bit.

I don't pretend to understand it, but it seems to be true.

Yeah Kerry is too cerebral and talks too much, and Bush has better advisors at this point, nevertheless Kerry will still probably win the debates.