Why Joe Biden have lesser margin in Delaware than Obama in 2008?

[iceman]

Delaware in 2008: 62%-35%
Delaware in 2020: 59%-40%

[Hammy]

Because Obama won the national PV by more than two points.

[lfromnj]

Its actually same as 2012's margin

2 things- I guess this election will be slightly closer in the PV than 08.

2nd. Delaware is being colonized by Republican retirees. Wilmington is stagnant while the 2 southern counties are among the fastest growing in the nation. Its absolutely a target for the GOP for the 2 senate seats there.

Seems to have been a senior swing this year due to COVID perhaps but not sure for the future.

[iceman]

Should it had the favorite son effect? Same as Illinois and Hawaii for Obama in 2008?

[iceman]

Trump overperformed in Sussex and Kent counties.

Nope, it actually trended more D than New Castle.

[Ljube]

Delaware is trending R.

I think in a couple of cycles we will be talking about battleground Delaware.

[Alben Barkley]

Because Obama won the national PV by more than two points.

So did Biden, will be about 5 in the end.

[Hammy]

Because Obama won the national PV by more than two points.

So did Biden, will be about 5 in the end.

Is there still that much of CA/NY left to count?

[lfromnj]

Because Obama won the national PV by more than two points.

So did Biden, will be about 5 in the end.

Is there still that much of CA/NY left to count?

A lot in NY, CA has a decent bit that should still Lean D overall but they probably aren't leaning as overwhelmingly D. For Example Kern county is a tie rn and that should move towards Trump as I highly doubt Kern trends that much D, it does not seem like that type of place. Oil+Hispanic+not very woke white population.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Delaware is trending R.

I think in a couple of cycles we will be talking about battleground Delaware.

Delaware was a very good bellwether state for the 2nd half of the 20th century.

[GALeftist]

Re: the favorite son effect, Obama also probably had such an effect due to Biden being his running mate, fwiw. 2008 was just a good Democratic year.

[JG]

Hillary didn't get one in none of the states usually associated to her (NY, AR or IL). Neither did Trump. His performance in FL in 2016 was consistent with a 2 points victory for the democrat. I feel that favourite sons effects may be things of the past or, at the very least, lost in translation when the candidate has more of a national profile than anything else like Biden and Hillary.   I would assume most people in Delaware now know Biden as a former VP instead of a former senator for their state.   

[lfromnj]

Hillary didn't get one in none of the states usually associated to her (NY, AR or IL). Neither did Trump. His performance in FL in 2016 was consistent with a 2 points victory for the democrat. I feel that favourite sons effects may be things of the past or, at the very least, lost in translation when the candidate has more of a national profile than anything else like Biden and Hillary.   I would assume most people in Delaware now know Biden as a former VP instead of a former senator for their state.   

AR has swung R this year though

[Xing]

Had Biden been the nominee in 2008, he likely would’ve won it by even more. At this point, though, Biden is much more of a national politician, and that always limits how big of a home state bump a candidate gets.

[JG]

Hillary didn't get one in none of the states usually associated to her (NY, AR or IL). Neither did Trump. His performance in FL in 2016 was consistent with a 2 points victory for the democrat. I feel that favourite sons effects may be things of the past or, at the very least, lost in translation when the candidate has more of a national profile than anything else like Biden and Hillary.   I would assume most people in Delaware now know Biden as a former VP instead of a former senator for their state.   

AR has swung R this year though

I suppose it might point to a lingering favourite-daughter-in-law effect. Though, Arkansas did trend R in 2016 and had a similar trend to neighboring states.