Clinton 2016 counties ---> Trump 2020 counties.

[iceman]

Any thoughts?


can someone compile a list?

[Hope For A New Era]

Any thoughts?

I imagine these would be primarily heavily Latino counties that went for Clinton by small margins.

[Non Swing Voter]

probably not places anyone on this board would want to live in.

[iceman]

Lorain and Mahoning counties are odd. When most of the counties in the rust belt, especially the WWC counties like Macomb swung to DEMs, these two seemed to go the other way.

[Mr. Smith]

Starr, TX
Kenedy, TX
Scotland, NC
Mahoning, OH
Lorrain, OH

[vileplume]

If the current map holds (and it probably won't, especially in NY):

Clinton, NY
Dutchess, NY
Rockland, NY
Nassau, NY
Mahoning, OH
Lorain, OH
Scotland, NC
Clarendon, SC
Dillon, SC
Burke, GA
Marshall, MS
Copiah, MS
Kleberg, TX
Kenedy, TX
Jim Wells, TX
Zapata, TX
La Salle, TX
Frio, TX
Val Verde, TX
Reeves, TX
Alamosa, CO

[rhg2052]

Yeah, at least Dutchess and Nassau should flip back to Biden once all of the mail-in votes are counted. Maybe Rockland too, but I hesitate because of the large Orthodox Jewish vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kennedy, TX was a Clinton county Trump is winning by like 30%. Imagine telling someone there would be a Clinton County Trump would win by 30% just a few days ago, lol.

[Mr. Smith]

Winnebago, IL

[The Free North]

Kennedy, TX was a Clinton county Trump is winning by like 30%. Imagine telling someone there would be a Clinton County Trump would win by 30% just a few days ago, lol.

It also has a population of like 150.

[Ye We Can]

Winnebago IL apparently. I didn't think Rockford would go full Rock Bottom.

I know IL becoming a swing state in the future is a big meme but if there's ever a Republican candidate who fully recovers in the suburbs it's gonna happen.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I know IL becoming a swing state in the future is a big meme but if there's ever a Republican candidate who fully recovers in the suburbs it's gonna happen.

Even that might not be enough. Democrats can win with Cook County alone.

[Ye We Can]

I know IL becoming a swing state in the future is a big meme but if there's ever a Republican candidate who fully recovers in the suburbs it's gonna happen.

Even that might not be enough. Democrats can win with Cook County alone.

Not if the Democratic slide with minorities continues (big if).  I obviously dont expect it to get to a point where that's enough in the near future (as well as the aforementioned meaningful Republican recovery in the collar counties) but a Rauner 2014 map is plenty plausible going forward.

[Panda Express]

Lorain and Mahoning counties are odd. When most of the counties in the rust belt, especially the WWC counties like Macomb swung to DEMs, these two seemed to go the other way.

I wouldn't really qualify Macomb as completely WWC. Sure, there is a lot of that there but it's a large county - there's also upscale suburbs there too

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Bellwethers failed for the first time ever.  Very sus.

[Storr]

Bellwethers failed for the first time ever.  Very sus.

Blaine County has to be the "best" bellwether post 2020 having picked the winner every year since 1916, except for 1988.

[lfromnj]

St.Joseph county Indiana has been a good bellwether for the NPV since 1992 with the exception of 08. I guess it should hold true this year.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lorain and Mahoning counties are odd. When most of the counties in the rust belt, especially the WWC counties like Macomb swung to DEMs, these two seemed to go the other way.

I wouldn't really qualify Macomb as completely WWC. Sure, there is a lot of that there but it's a large county - there's also upscale suburbs there too

Very true

[nclib]

If the current map holds (and it probably won't, especially in NY):

Clinton, NY
Dutchess, NY
Rockland, NY
Nassau, NY
Mahoning, OH
Lorain, OH
Scotland, NC
Clarendon, SC
Dillon, SC
Burke, GA
Marshall, MS
Copiah, MS
Kleberg, TX
Kenedy, TX
Jim Wells, TX
Zapata, TX
La Salle, TX
Frio, TX
Val Verde, TX
Reeves, TX
Alamosa, CO

Does Mahoning have the longest streak of voting Dem broken (1972)?

[lfromnj]

If the current map holds (and it probably won't, especially in NY):

Clinton, NY
Dutchess, NY
Rockland, NY
Nassau, NY
Mahoning, OH
Lorain, OH
Scotland, NC
Clarendon, SC
Dillon, SC
Burke, GA
Marshall, MS
Copiah, MS
Kleberg, TX
Kenedy, TX
Jim Wells, TX
Zapata, TX
La Salle, TX
Frio, TX
Val Verde, TX
Reeves, TX
Alamosa, CO

Does Mahoning have the longest streak of voting Dem broken (1972)?

Zapata was (1920)
Starr County came close and was 1892

Brooks wasn't as close but would have been another Elliot County.