Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Oryxslayer]

At this point if Loeffler and Perdue lose it's 100% because of bad turnout in rural areas.

The margins are tracking very closely with the general election but there is evidence of bad turnout in some big rural counties.  If they lose it's 100% on Trump.  Maybe losing the Senate would wake the GOP to the toxicity of Trump.

If it is poor rural turnout which deserves more blame: Trump's decision to torpedo the electoral process and turning off his diehards, or the GOP's evolution towards those voters without a college degree and have always been harder to turn out (no matter their ethnicity, age, income etc) in off years.

[wbrocks67]

MSNBC: Perdue doing a few tenths better than Trump, but Oconee turnout down 20%+

[Alben Barkley]

Still think Perdue and Loeffler are slight favorites. We knew that Dems would likely outperform Biden in the early vote, but the e-day vote is still the big unkown.

I'll listen to Wasserman thx

Wasserman is a Dem hack and he was wrong about the November election.
That hack is forgetting that the Dem areas also have depressed turnout. For example, Fulton County turnout is at about 86% of November turnout.

Sounds like someone's getting nervous that his beloved Nazi Party might be out of power soon.

[Crumpets]

One problem if the polls are spot-on for these elections will be that all the pollsters will say "okay, it was just a Trump thing" and not change anything else about their methodology.

[Catalyst138]

It's mind boggling that Loeffler is running only 0.2% behind Perdue. Perdue is atleast a normal Republican, Loeffler on the other hand is total garbage and just an all around awful candidate with no redeeming qualities.

I guess this is one of those elections where you either vote for both, or neither. "Candidate quality" doesn't matter as much since its an election for the fate of the Senate.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just thought.  If the two Democrats win and Dems get the Senate at the last minute, this will have been the most painful possible election cycle for Republicans.  First they get their hopes up to win the White House, lose it a few days later.  Then lose the senate... their heads would explode.

[lfromnj]

Wasserman has been a D hack this cycle when it comes to predictions although he is still one of the best when it comes to analyzing returns.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’ve got to ask though even though there is a lot of ED vote left out if the reps are going over perform wouldn’t get some hints to that in the early Ed vote that has come in?

[Brittain33]

Still think Perdue and Loeffler are slight favorites. We knew that Dems would likely outperform Biden in the early vote, but the e-day vote is still the big unkown.

I'll listen to Wasserman thx

Wasserman is a Dem hack and he was wrong about the November election.
That hack is forgetting that the Dem areas also have depressed turnout. For example, Fulton County turnout is at about 86% of November turnout.

Sounds like someone's getting nervous that his beloved Nazi Party might be out of power soon.

Both of you, cool it. I'll delete any more posts in this chain.

[wbrocks67]

One problem if the polls are spot-on for these elections will be that all the pollsters will say "okay, it was just a Trump thing" and not change anything else about their methodology.

I mean, if they are, there is good reason to believe it *IS* a Trump thing, as in he brings out those low propensity voters that polls don't normally pick up, and when he's not there, they pick up a more accurate electorate

[WD]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1346623069452951553

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1346623163971608576?s=20

The thing to note is that both the GOp and Dems are underperforming Biden/Trump by 10K. Because there are less GOP voters here, that is a steeper dropoff, and I can't even say if they have better numbers to come given that this county was one of the ones that released a precinct's numbers before their Absentee/EV.

[wbrocks67]

Wasserman has been a D hack this cycle when it comes to predictions although he is still one of the best when it comes to analyzing returns.

LOL hes not though but okay. Pretty sure Ds have been just as frustrated with Wasserman before as Rs have

[Catalyst138]

Just thought.  If the two Democrats win and Dems get the Senate at the last minute, this will have been the most painful possible election cycle for Republicans.  First they get their hopes up to win the White House, lose it a few days later.  Then lose the senate... their heads would explode.

DOUBLE COPIUM

[roxas11]

wow the last time I was on here everbody was talking the how bad the exit polls was for the dems

now im seeing that Dems are strong poistion to maybe win this race lol

[Bootes Void]

Just thought.  If the two Democrats win and Dems get the Senate at the last minute, this will have been the most painful possible election cycle for Republicans.  First they get their hopes up to win the White House, lose it a few days later.  Then lose the senate... their heads would explode.

On Tuesday and early Wednesday there was a possibility of the house flipping.

Guess that didn't happen as well

[Crumpets]

It has officially gotten to the point that I'm thinking "Warnock's win probability has been at 60% for a while. Oh no! Maybe this means his probability is flattening out and is about to start going back down!"

Just the fact that we're at that point though is a pretty good sign overall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's mind boggling that Loeffler is running only 0.2% behind Perdue. Perdue is atleast a normal Republican, Loeffler on the other hand is total garbage and just an all around awful candidate with no redeeming qualities.

It would be mind-boggling anywhere but hyper-polarized, wave-proof Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346624596804513797

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It has officially gotten to the point that I'm thinking "Warnock's win probability has been at 60% for a while. Oh no! Maybe this means his probability is flattening out and is about to start going back down!"

Just the fact that we're at that point though is a pretty good sign overall.

Nate Cohn just explained this. Basically volatility goes down as the needle learns more. Only thing that could throw it off would be a weird e-day.

[VBM]

At this point if Loeffler and Perdue lose it's 100% because of bad turnout in rural areas.

The margins are tracking very closely with the general election but there is evidence of bad turnout in some big rural counties.  If they lose it's 100% on Trump.  Maybe losing the Senate would wake the GOP to the toxicity of Trump.

If Democrats win this, Biden should give the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Lin Wood for tricking GOP rubes into not voting

[musicblind]

Just thought.  If the two Democrats win and Dems get the Senate at the last minute, this will have been the most painful possible election cycle for Republicans.  First they get their hopes up to win the White House, lose it a few days later.  Then lose the senate... their heads would explode.

By the numbers, 2008 was far more traumatic for Republicans, though.

[wbrocks67]

It appears we may be getting closer to red mirage territory.

Also Cobb mail-in/early vote is 67-33, does anyone know what it was for Biden?

[redjohn]

I'm glad I closed out of this for an hour and a half. Looks like a really tight race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In B4 a certain somebody says "NYT needle tightened Dems are doomed"