Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Anyways, I'm feeling pretty similar to how I felt on election day. I'm a natural worrier and doomer so I'm going to try and keep myself occupied with happy thoughts and optimism but here's hoping y'all.

[Brittain33]

When is the earliest Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in? Because maybe that bitch Loeffler won't even get a chance to commit treason. But I suppose Ossoff and Warnock will need to be ready to fly to DC tonight

Fixed that for you.

No, you did not. She is a bitch and more

I'm not going to infract anyone, but I agree with BudgieForce here and find this way of describing a woman not much different from using a racial slur to describe an ethnic minority, and encourage people to keep that in mind, especially as this forum is overwhelmingly male.

[Brittain33]

Temporarily locking thread for a clean up. Back up shortly.

Done. Discussion of the comment above has been moved to Forum Community (and if that's not the right location, the mod there can move it again.) Let's not let this get in the way of a busy election day thread.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Temporarily locking thread for a clean up. Back up shortly.

Done. Discussion of the comment above has been moved to Forum Community (and if that's not the right location, the mod there can move it again.) Let's not let this get in the way of a busy election day thread.

Thank you, Brittain!

[Inmate Trump]

Are we looking at days and days of vote counting, or does anyone think we could know by tonight or tomorrow?

[wbrocks67]

Are we looking at days and days of vote counting, or does anyone think we could know by tonight or tomorrow?

Apparently Raffensberger says he expects a result by Wednesday AM

[Motorcity]

Are we looking at days and days of vote counting, or does anyone think we could know by tonight or tomorrow?

Most likely it will take a few days

Georgia claimed they could count all the mail in votes by election night and they failed

[wbrocks67]

Betting markets right now, Perdue has bounced back a bit

ElectionBettingOdds.com

Perdue 51.4%
Ossoff 48.5%

Warnock 60.7%
Loeffler 39.2%

[Woody]

Get ready for the slaughtering.

[Inmate Trump]

Get ready for the slaughtering.

You said basically the same thing in November.

This is a clear toss-up.  Don't get ahead of yourself again.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/beauvans/status/1346462167122518018

I'm not complaining, but keep in mind this is one precinct and it's very early.

[KaiserDave]

Get ready for the slaughtering.

You said basically the same thing in November.

This is a clear toss-up.  Don't get ahead of yourself again.

Why are you responding to the Trumpian Frog fish

(actually no that's unfair to the frog fish)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For the curious: the last time that a split occurred between two simultaneous Senate elections was 1966 (Strom Thurmond-R/ Ernest Hollings-D). 

[swf541]

Get ready for the slaughtering.

You said basically the same thing in November.

This is a clear toss-up.  Don't get ahead of yourself again.

True, but let the guy have his fun, its a pretty solid meme at this point ngl

[wbrocks67]

50K more mail-in votes counted, White % drops another 0.1.

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
1/1: 3.00M (55.8% white, 30.8% black) —-> +25.0 white
1/3: 3.03M (55.75% white, 30.8% black) —> +24.95 white
1/4: 3.04M (55.7% white, 30.9% black) —> +24.8 white
1/5: 3.09M (55.6% white, 30.9% black) —> +24.7 white

VBM requests (final)
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
1/1: 1.373M (51.4% white, 32.9% black) —> +18.5 white
1/3: 1.374M (51.4% white, 32.9% black) —> +18.5 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white
1/3: 958K (53.8% white, 32.0% black) —> +21.8 white
1/4: 967K (53.6% white, 32.1% black) —> +21.5 white
1/5: 1.02M (53.5% white, 32.0% black) —> +21.5 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes (final)
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At my polling location in Cobb County.  I’m about the 30th person in line.  Line is about the same length as it was on Election Day in November.

Proudly casting my vote for Perdue and Loeffler!  Time for Georgia to redeem itself and save AMERICA!

Just come out and say that you’re a supporter of fascism in America and that you want an end to American democracy.

It's not like if her opponent was a Castro loving extremist, who hates his own country (You can't serve God and being a military), who (at best) is prejudicied against whites, and who happen to be by the way a wife beater.

Democrats would have been better off had they recruited a scandal free candidate (someone like McBath for example).

Speaking as someone who doesn't particularly like Warnock, considers him a pretty weak candidate (and said so long before anyone thought this seat was going to flip), would've far preferred a different Democratic candidate, and would've had to really hold my nose to vote for him were I a Georgia voter, I think a lot of these arguments are pretty disingenuous at best. 

- While I don't think that Warnock is as extreme as you're suggesting (at the very least, he's a #ModerateHero compared to both Loeffler and Perdue), reasonable minds can differ on that point.  However, the Castro thing is #FakeNews.  While Warnock was formerly a youth pastor at a church where a different pastor praised Castro and welcomed him to said church, Warnock wasn't on the dias when this happened and it's not even clear that he attended the event at all IIRC. 

- With all due respect, any Loeffler supporter who claims Warnock hates America b/c he said that "you can't serve God and the military" is being laughably hypocritical at best.  Setting aside the context of Warnock's comment, Kelly Loeffler is literally supporting a doomed authoritarian coup attempt as we speak.  Warnock made a vaguely anti-military/anti-war comment (at worst) in a sermon nine years ago.  Loeffler is actively waging war on American democracy by trying to overturn the 2020 Presidential election so that a wannabe dictator can be installed as President despite decisively losing the election. 

At its most basic level, democracy is rooted upon the premise that when one side loses an election, they accept the results and work to ensure a smooth and peaceful transfer of power.  The 2000 and 2004 congressional challenges were by a few fringe publicity seeking hacks who were treated as such by the Democratic Party (which is why most folks don't even know about them). 

Trump and his supporters are making an active attempt to overturn a democratic election, undermine our nation's democracy, and failing that, prevent a peaceful transfer of power.  Kelly Loeffler has been an enthusiastic supporter of this war on the American form of government.  Trump, Loeffler, etc's actions are a direct rejection of the foundational principles of democracy and I don't know what could be more anti-American than that! 

- I'm not really sure what your rationale is for claiming Warnock is racist against white people, but unless you can cite specific examples to support this claim, I see no reason to believe it.  Loeffler is going around doing photo-ops with klansmen, so there's actual evidence to suggest she's either a racist or at least happy to turn a blind eye to racism.  Warnock AFAIK hasn't made any racist comments regarding white people. 

- It has been alleged that Warnock ran over his wife's foot and indeed, I raised concerns about this way back when it wasn't even clear if Matt Lieberman or Raphael Warnock would be the one who made it to the runoff  

However, I only had to do a little bit of research before it became obvious that Warnock's ex-wife was lying when she made this claim.  Setting aside the fact that the responding officer literally wrote in his report "I did not see any signs that Ms. Ouleye's foot was run over," medical personnel arrived at the scene the night of the alleged incident and "were not able to locate any swelling, redness, or bruising or broken bones on Ms. Ouleye’s left foot."

*It was made in the specific context of a sermon discussing Jesus' sermon on the mount (specifically the line “No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other; or else he will be devoted to one and despise the other") and the idea that one's first priority should always be leading a moral life.  For example, Warnock also talked about how one can't serve money and God at the same time.  I'd argue Warnock's comments reflected anti-institutionalist sentiments and perhaps pacifist-friendly leanings more than anything else.

[SnowLabrador]

Good to see that turnout appears to be low in one Trump precinct, but I prefer to follow the Nate Silver rule: Assume you learn nothing on Election Day until the votes start being reported.

[ProgressiveModerate]

D's estimated lead grew to +8 or just under 250k votes with the new mail dump.



Again, these are estimates as always, take with a HUGE grain of salt (don't die though)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/beauvans/status/1346462167122518018
https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1346427296819908608
2 conflicting anecodtes, a reminder not to take any info on twitter too seriously.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/beauvans/status/1346462167122518018
https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1346427296819908608
2 conflicting anecodtes, a reminder not to take any info on twitter too seriously.

I'm not sure these are necessarily conflicting: turnout may not be uniform across all precincts. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/beauvans/status/1346462167122518018
https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1346427296819908608
2 conflicting anecodtes, a reminder not to take any info on twitter too seriously.

I'm not sure these are necessarily conflicting: turnout may not be uniform across all precincts. 

Also, look at the timestamps on those two tweets.  It's entirely possible that there were lines forming waiting for polls to open at 7am (this is common) and the lines soon resolved. 

From https://www.ajc.com/politics/election/georgia-runoff-election-polls-open-at-7-am/CMODR53UPBEVXM3KEQ4MOLEQ7E/:

Elsewhere, voting appeared to be going smoothly. There was no line outside Metropolitan Library in the Capitol View Manor neighborhood in Atlanta. Turnout has been “moderate,” the poll manager said.

The manager reported no major issues – just a few voters who were at the wrong precinct.

Scott Orrell voted at the South Cobb Regional Library. He said it only took him a few minutes to cast his vote.

The "elsewhere" refers to this minor issue:

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1346448612637683712

[ProgressiveModerate]

Atlas is putting way too much stock on a few tweets from people on the ground giving their subjective opinion on how long a line appears to be at a specific moment in time

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

D's estimated lead grew to +8 or just under 250k votes with the new mail dump.

Serious question: what are you assuming/not including here that the D+350k/D+400kers aren't?

[ProgressiveModerate]

D's estimated lead grew to +8 or just under 250k votes with the new mail dump.

Serious question: what are you assuming/not including here that the D+350k/D+400kers aren't?

Who knows; they have more data and I’m pretty bad at math myself. They might be able to do more breakdowns by individual precincts by race or something, which is something I can’t easily do as one person, and that’s part of the reason I say my model I think slightly underestimated Ds lead.


Generally it seems like the more breakdowns there are in these models, the better the net advantage for Democrats.

[compucomp]

Let's put all this "long lines" stuff in perspective, Raffensperger reported that on Nov. 3 the average wait time was 3 minutes.