Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[SCNCmod]

I'm sorry, but does Loeffler's campaign outfits irritate anyone else?

They are extremely tacky and they make her clearly come off as a rich person trying to be rural or working class.

I'm sure it was unintentional, but harping on a female candidate's clothes is just a touch too close to thinly veiled sexism than we should be comfortable with.

Also, damn both of you for making me defend that demented quarterwit.

I disagree here.  I think she would have been subject to more criticism had she been a man dressing up in the farmer getup.  She is essentially wearing a costume- so I in no way think this is criticizing how a woman is dressing in a sexist way. Even the word "tacky" I take to mean the idea of the outfit (almost Billionaire trying to pull off a look she thinks evokes the image of more common person in the rural south- or whatever) is in bad taste, rather than they look tacky.  But either way, I actually don't even see this as a close call.

[Frenchrepublican]

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Why?

Presumably some fear-mongering about how the 5 conservatives will never allow the Democrats to pass anything ever again.

Quoting from an article on the matter:

The Founding Fathers wrote it into the Constitution. Article I, Section 8 provides explicitly for a national capital that would not be part of a state nor treated as a state, but rather a unique enclave under the exclusive authority of Congress — a neutral “district” in which representatives of all the states could meet on an equal footing to conduct the nation’s business.

Also DC was once part of Maryland and technically Marylanders could still reclaim it (like Virginia did in the 1840s), it could be a significant argument against statehood.

[Frenchrepublican]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?

I don't think that Manchin is going to torpedo any major democratic legislation, especially considering that he is unlikely to run again, but yeah, the Biden's tax plan is probably DOA in the House, hiking back the highest income tax rate to pre 2017 levels would likely pass, but increasing the corporate tax by one third, creating a tax on financial transactions, a massive estate tax increase (the estate tax is the most unpopular tax of all), and a 100% increase of the capital gains tax rates are probably too hard to stomach for people like Schrader, Malinowski, Gottheimer, Scherill, Casten, Underwood, Fletcher and likely a few other ones

[(no subject)]

A lot of our problems would be solved if we could magically teleport McConnell to Iran.

[wbrocks67]

On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

Any other hints you can throw us?

[wbrocks67]

I'm becoming more optimistic about these runoffs. The evidence says that Republicans should win at least one of these. However, it seems the campaign period post November has gone great for Democrats and badly for Republicans, the narrative seems really favorable for Ossoff and Warnock. Early voting is a good sign, we keep getting told not to read too much into it but it doesn't seem consistent with a result where Republicans do as well as or better than November (unless swing voters break Republican). However, I still have trouble seeing David Perdue losing. Despite the memes, which have gotten way out of hand and are pretty dumb now, I do think some Republican-leaning suburbanites dislike Trump more than down-ballot Republicans. Loeffler may have alienated that demographic now, and maybe Trump even dragged Perdue down by attempting to overturn the result, However, most likely there are enough of them who find Perdue sufficiently inoffensive for him to win. Loeffler seems really weak, so maybe she'll lose. It's also possible though that she is a slightly better fit for Georgia than Trump and so barely wins.

IDK, Perdue could definitely still win obviously, but this race has proven him to not just be a terrible candidate and terrible generic R, but he also hasn't proven himself to be any better than Loeffler IMO. He couldn't even show up to the debate (at least Loeffler did), he's been absent from the campaign trail for a while now, and at least among the moderate/college+ crowd, him standing with Trump doesn't seem like a good idea considering he needs those moderates to vote for him even if they voted for Biden in Nov.

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

[MillennialModerate]

I'm becoming more optimistic about these runoffs. The evidence says that Republicans should win at least one of these.

Numbers would have to be at around 50.01% to see a ticket split.

Pretty likely one party wins both.

[Tender Branson]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

Oh nice. Excited for that one.

Sorry if this was asked before, but what is the order in which votes are counted again? I forget what the trajectory was in Nov (besides Biden increasing towards the end)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

Oh nice. Excited for that one.

Sorry if this was asked before, but what is the order in which votes are counted again? I forget what the trajectory was in Nov (besides Biden increasing towards the end)

Generally in person to early to absentee, and more urban counties tend to take a lot longer to count; the perfect formula for a pretty extreme Republican counting bias.

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

Oh nice. Excited for that one.

Sorry if this was asked before, but what is the order in which votes are counted again? I forget what the trajectory was in Nov (besides Biden increasing towards the end)

Generally in person to early to absentee, and more urban counties tend to take a lot longer to count; the perfect formula for a pretty extreme Republican counting bias.

ah okay, so the initial totals will likely be at least somewhat GOP. though i guess we can always compare to how the first results were back in Nov too to see how it's going

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sorry for the 3rd post, but does anyone know if we're getting an exit poll on Tuesday?

The NBC results page would suggest so:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

Oh nice. Excited for that one.

Sorry if this was asked before, but what is the order in which votes are counted again? I forget what the trajectory was in Nov (besides Biden increasing towards the end)

Generally in person to early to absentee, and more urban counties tend to take a lot longer to count; the perfect formula for a pretty extreme Republican counting bias.

ah okay, so the initial totals will likely be at least somewhat GOP. though i guess we can always compare to how the first results were back in Nov too to see how it's going

Actually, in Nov, the first few % were very heavily Biden but that's just kind of random based on which counties start first.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

Why?

Presumably some fear-mongering about how the 5 conservatives will never allow the Democrats to pass anything ever again.

Quoting from an article on the matter:

The Founding Fathers wrote it into the Constitution. Article I, Section 8 provides explicitly for a national capital that would not be part of a state nor treated as a state, but rather a unique enclave under the exclusive authority of Congress — a neutral “district” in which representatives of all the states could meet on an equal footing to conduct the nation’s business.

Also DC was once part of Maryland and technically Marylanders could still reclaim it (like Virginia did in the 1840s), it could be a significant argument against statehood.

Except Maryland DOES NOT want to reaclaim it's portion of DC at all. I've been to the DC area quite a bit and DC doesn't want to join Maryland and vice-versa.

[SCNCmod]

On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

Any other hints you can throw us?

What is the implied meaning behind "this has been among the most stable races" ... Who does this statement favor?  Most all other polling would indicate this race has had a lead change or two along the way (or at least a few changes in momentum).

[Pollster]

On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

Any other hints you can throw us?

What is the implied meaning behind "this has been among the most stable races" ... Who does this statement favor?  Most all other polling would indicate this race has had a lead change or two along the way (or at least a few changes in momentum).

Stable in the sense that we haven't seen any candidate pull into a lead outside the margin of error (though the candidate with a nominal lead has changed a few times) nor have we seen any candidate gain/lose measurable support with any demographic group or in any regional area.

[wbrocks67]

On another note, are you doing polling work in Georgia?  If so, any hints you can drop for us?

We are doing tracking until election day, and this has been among the most stable races I've ever polled.

Any other hints you can throw us?

What is the implied meaning behind "this has been among the most stable races" ... Who does this statement favor?  Most all other polling would indicate this race has had a lead change or two along the way (or at least a few changes in momentum).

Stable in the sense that we haven't seen any candidate pull into a lead outside the margin of error (though the candidate with a nominal lead has changed a few times) nor have we seen any candidate gain/lose measurable support with any demographic group or in any regional area.

Have you seen what the JMC poll saw? As in, a smaller amount of election day voters than one would think?

[Tender Branson]

Any Monday update so far (postal ballots) ?

[wbrocks67]

About 10K more mail in ballots counted, VBM+IPEV total drops to +24.8 white, while VBM accepted drops to +21.5 white.

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
1/1: 3.00M (55.8% white, 30.8% black) —-> +25.0 white
1/3: 3.03M (55.75% white, 30.8% black) —> +24.95 white
1/4: 3.04M (55.7% white, 30.9% black) —> +24.8 white

VBM requests (final)
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
1/1: 1.373M (51.4% white, 32.9% black) —> +18.5 white
1/3: 1.374M (51.4% white, 32.9% black) —> +18.5 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white
1/3: 958K (53.8% white, 32.0% black) —> +21.8 white
1/4: 967K (53.6% white, 32.1% black) —> +21.5 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes (final)
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

[ProgressiveModerate]

Small update:

Democrats estimated advantage up to +7.5 or a 228k vote lead. To make that up on e-day, if votes broke as they did in the GE, they would need a turnout of about 1.1 million.

Here's a county map, note I did increase the log scale on the gradient:



As I always say, these numbers are estimates based on available data and historical precedent. If I had to guess, 228k is on the lower end of possible Dem leads considering the data and how my methodology works, but that's the number my model outputs

[wbrocks67]

....

https://twitter.com/1PatriciaMurphy/status/1346110393660399616

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

....

https://twitter.com/1PatriciaMurphy/status/1346110393660399616

I...guess that's "better" than Kevin Cramer (R-ND) basically saying "I don't see the problem here."

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Perdue is officially still in quarantine, so doesn't appear he'll have any events today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346123743513477122

[wbrocks67]

Trump won this county 70-29

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1346125171132915712