Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1342494520605368325?s=20

Well we know a ton of money didn't do sh-t in South Carolina and it damn sure didn't in rural, white, undereducated Kentucky. Let's see what it does in a D-trending Biden +0.3 state with a Black base, dense Black suburbs, significant Hispanic and Asian population, along with college-educated white suburbs that have embraced mainstream Dems like Abrams and Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 1200 stimulus is backfiring on the Rs, Ron Johnson blocked it and the Rs settled on 600 and Trump is attempting to veto it. It should of remained 1200, there isn't that much relief in 600

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1342494520605368325

Well we know a ton of money didn't do sh-t in South Carolina and it damn sure didn't in rural, white, undereducated Kentucky. Let's see what it does in a D-trending Biden +0.3 state with a Black base, dense Black suburbs, significant Hispanic and Asian population, along with college-educated white suburbs that have embraced mainstream Dems like Abrams and Biden.

Yeah, it's more about how that money's getting spent rather than the amount of it that's being raised at this point. As you point out, we saw just this year that Senate candidates raising millions could very well not mean sh*t. Hopefully they're spending it wisely, though.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen a lot of pundits try and compare Ossoff/Warnock's fundraising to Harrison or McGraths as if GA = SC/KY. Ridiculous comparison.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes counted. Black share went up +0.1

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I've seen a lot of pundits try and compare Ossoff/Warnock's fundraising to Harrison or McGraths as if GA = SC/KY. Ridiculous comparison.

The ACB nomination interfered is ith Harrison winning, McGrath was never gonna win

[Brittain33]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In the past few days, my model has grown more confident that we’re dealing with at least a Biden plurality electorate. Even giving the GOP the benefit of the doubt, assuming 90% GE turnout and a complete halt in early votes, with E-day votes breaking how they did in the GE, that still only yields a Trump + 5 electorate. The median outcome is about Biden + 3 (+2.87 to be exact), which is right around the inflection point in the Perdue - Osoff Senate race. These will likely be close, and while Perdue and Loefeller could still win by larger than expected margins (+7) like the poster above said, it’s becoming an increasingly more unlikely scenario statistically. These next few days, I’ll keep updating how the early vote data impacts the model as the holidays roll around.

[Frenchrepublican]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

Yeah, exactly, from a European perspective the debate which is taking place in the US is pretty weird, I mean, it's logical to compensate the loss of income for the people who are forced to shut down their business, who have lost their job or who are facing reduced working hours because of lockdown and anti Covid measures but giving a $2000 check to everybody, including the federal and state workers who are unaffacted by these measures is wasteful.

The problem is that this could potentially run into a 5th/14th amendment issue - fully employed people could make the argument that being denied stimulus checks is a violation of their due process rights.
There's also the idea that more money directly put in people's pockets pays economic dividends in the longrun, which is the same reasoning past administrations have given for cutting payroll taxes.

The political power behind both, though, is that people having more money is popular.

I don't see why it would be contrary to the US Constitution. Treating different situations differently is logical and it's a common practice, see food stamps, you get them only if you meet some criterias.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

It's also an incorrect post. African Americans had the lowest share of the electorate in a long time in Georgia in 2020. Only 27%. I think it was the lowest since 2006.

[YE]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

It's also an incorrect post. African Americans had the lowest share of the electorate in a long time in Georgia in 2020. Only 27%. I think it was the lowest since 2006.

It also depends on how you define “high black turnout”. Raw % or a % of the black electorate.

[Brittain33]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

It's also an incorrect post. African Americans had the lowest share of the electorate in a long time in Georgia in 2020. Only 27%. I think it was the lowest since 2006.

I'm sorry, of course you're correct about what happened in November 2020, but what I meant by that was "2020 was a terrible year, so Democrats are probably going to get this heartbreaking scenario in the runoff because we can't have nice things," not that 2020 provides a model where there was exceptional African-American turnout as a share of the total in Georgia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

It's also an incorrect post. African Americans had the lowest share of the electorate in a long time in Georgia in 2020. Only 27%. I think it was the lowest since 2006.

I'm sorry, of course you're correct about what happened in November 2020, but what I meant by that was "2020 was a terrible year, so Democrats are probably going to get this heartbreaking scenario in the runoff because we can't have nice things," not that 2020 provides a model where there was exceptional African-American turnout as a share of the total in Georgia.

I disagree with that, Jon Ossoff is Jewish and Warnock is AA, alot of WC likes Ossoff for being Jewish and Loeffler is a terrible candidate, Ossoff wins by 2 and Warnock by 3

As I stated over and over again Atlanta and it's suburbs are the last to vote Biden won on a recount, wait until Atlanta finish counting as James Carville said, it isn't over til it's over

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1342494520605368325?s=20

Well we know a ton of money didn't do sh-t in South Carolina and it damn sure didn't in rural, white, undereducated Kentucky. Let's see what it does in a D-trending Biden +0.3 state with a Black base, dense Black suburbs, significant Hispanic and Asian population, along with college-educated white suburbs that have embraced mainstream Dems like Abrams and Biden.

The 2020 election made 1 thing very clear
Georgia is not like South Carolina and Kentucky at all..

Jaime Harrison and Amy mcgrath never stood any chance on those states
In mcgrath case polls showed that she was doomed even as some dems kept foolishly throwing money at her


Ossoff and Warnock on the other hand Actually have a will real chance to win in Georgia
even if the both go on lose it will not be by the kinds of margins that we was in South Carolina and Kentucky

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1342494520605368325?s=20

Well we know a ton of money didn't do sh-t in South Carolina and it damn sure didn't in rural, white, undereducated Kentucky. Let's see what it does in a D-trending Biden +0.3 state with a Black base, dense Black suburbs, significant Hispanic and Asian population, along with college-educated white suburbs that have embraced mainstream Dems like Abrams and Biden.

The 2020 election made 1 thing very clear
Georgia is not like South Carolina and Kentucky at all..

Jaime Harrison and Amy mcgrath never stood any chance on those states
In mcgrath case polls showed that she was doomed even as some dems kept foolishly throwing money at her


Ossoff and Warnock on the other hand Actually have a will real chance to win in Georgia
even if the both go on lose it will not be by the kinds of margins that we was in South Carolina and Kentucky

I don’t think money necessarily switches many votes, but can certainly help with outreach to turnout voters which will be key in this race. When a party over saturates a race with money, in a state that leans the other way, it nationalized the race and increases polarization. While I don’t think he would’ve won, I think Harrison could’ve come closer to Graham had he not gone crazy with money in the last couple months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harrison lost due to fact ACB was viewed favorable in SC and Graham got a bump

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1342648548647690240
Perdue King of the Suburbs will Destroy Weak Pernerrial Candidate John Ossoff, While Strong Candidate(TM) Warnock will destroy weak Loeffler

[Ancestral Republican]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1342648548647690240
Perdue King of the Suburbs will Destroy Weak Pernerrial Candidate John Ossoff, While Strong Candidate(TM) Warnock will destroy weak Loeffler

If the final result is split I'm giving up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ossoff and Warnock will win Atlanta convincingly and Majority Leader Schumer will be Jan 5th

WC voters will vote for Ossoff, bring Jewish is an asset

[Suburbia]

Tennessee Sen.-elect Bill Hagerty calls Ossoff a national security risk.

Hagerty was the U.S. ambassador to Japan until he decided to run for Alexander's seat when he retired...


Is Hagerty angling for a veep position in 2024?

https://nypost.com/2020/12/26/jon-ossoff-called-security-risk-by-incoming-gop-senator/

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/12/26/exclusive-sen-elect-bill-hagerty-warns-georgia-democrat-jon-ossoff-may-be-a-security-risk/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

[Rookie Yinzer]

Please do something about ERM64man. The needless spamming is back & worse than ever.

The fact that I have him blocked and have no idea what you’re talking about >>>>>>>

[brucejoel99]

Please do something about ERM64man. The needless spamming is back & worse than ever.

The fact that I have him blocked and have no idea what you’re talking about >>>>>>>

LMAO brain fart, I thought I was on the User Complaints Megathread when I typed that up

[Suburbia]

Should Ossoff say something about his China connections?

Blackburn, Cotton, Hagerty and McConnell could refuse to seat him if he wins....

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do you guys think of this county map?

Will try to make an interactive spreadsheet with several sliders which will output county results based upon what you personall;y think turnout will be, sort of like a swing o' meter (The map above is a 0.88% R win)

[GeorgiaModerate]

A new record today: eleven political flyers in the mail.