Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[wbrocks67]

These races are tilt R, maybe you could make a case for lean R for Perude. This state has become even more hyper-polarized over the last few years, more so than even LA, MS, and AL. It seems most Georgia congressional R’s uniformly outran Trump by a couple points and that’s it, regardless of incumbency or location (rural vs suburban).
It’s getting to be pretty much impossible for any Republican to ever win by more than ~5% without some kind of miraculous dem turnout implosion or a Mooreing.

It's astonishing to think that Johnny Isakson won by nearly 14% just four years ago, and by ~20% in both 2004 and 2010. Sonny Perdue won reelection as Governor in 2006 by ~20%, and there were downballot Republicans throughout the 2000s and 2010s who consistently won by double-digit margins, some with over 60% of the vote! Obviously, those days are gone in Georgia. The state now seems to potentially be headed down the path of Virginia, with the Atlanta Metropolitan Area the analogue to Northern Virginia, and like Northern Virginia, outvoting the rural and exurban areas of the state.

Take even GA-06. The fact that it went from R+24 to D+10 (house races) in 4 years is pretty crazy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I still think in the end- the election is going to come down to:

1) How high is AA turnout (potentially very high... given the chance of the 1st AA Senator from Georgia & given the Republican focus on race in ads against Warnock- which will no doubt hit a nerve with AA voters)

2) How well are Dems able to utilize their Vote-by-mail & early-in-person-vote advantage... to bank a solid lead, going into the Jan 5th election day (which may be a busy time of year for many typical election day voters... and to a lesser extent, may be affected by a likely increase in covid breakout).

Item two is something I never even considered.  Yeah, we're pretty much doing another round of mail-in for Georgia, right?

[Roll Roons]

These races are tilt R, maybe you could make a case for lean R for Perude. This state has become even more hyper-polarized over the last few years, more so than even LA, MS, and AL. It seems most Georgia congressional R’s uniformly outran Trump by a couple points and that’s it, regardless of incumbency or location (rural vs suburban).
It’s getting to be pretty much impossible for any Republican to ever win by more than ~5% without some kind of miraculous dem turnout implosion or a Mooreing.

It's astonishing to think that Johnny Isakson won by nearly 14% just four years ago, and by ~20% in both 2004 and 2010. Sonny Perdue won reelection as Governor in 2006 by ~20%, and there were downballot Republicans throughout the 2000s and 2010s who consistently won by double-digit margins, some with over 60% of the vote! Obviously, those days are gone in Georgia. The state now seems to potentially be headed down the path of Virginia, with the Atlanta Metropolitan Area the analogue to Northern Virginia, and like Northern Virginia, outvoting the rural and exurban areas of the state.

Take even GA-06. The fact that it went from R+24 to D+10 (house races) in 4 years is pretty crazy.

That's some real Rodney Stooksbury erasure.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1329083570669768705?s=20

[Dereich]

Last night I saw two Ossoff ads and one Warnock ad on NBC in Jacksonville, Florida. Yet to see an ad for either of the GOP candidates. I'm surprised its them and not the GOP who are going after those edge counties in southern Georgia. Maybe the Democrats have money to burn?

[Pollster]

Last night I saw two Ossoff ads and one Warnock ad on NBC in Jacksonville, Florida. Yet to see an ad for either of the GOP candidates. I'm surprised its them and not the GOP who are going after those edge counties in southern Georgia. Maybe the Democrats have money to burn?

Possibly trying to juice AA turnout in Brunswick.

[wbrocks67]

Last night I saw two Ossoff ads and one Warnock ad on NBC in Jacksonville, Florida. Yet to see an ad for either of the GOP candidates. I'm surprised its them and not the GOP who are going after those edge counties in southern Georgia. Maybe the Democrats have money to burn?

I suspect Warnock and Ossoff also have a considerable amount of $$$ leftover from the last days of the campaign. They probably raised absurd amounts in the last few weeks of the GE

[GALeftist]

Brian Kemp is almost certainly going to be a casualty of this fiasco with the Georgia GOP even if he wins because of a midterm environment. Trump keeps slamming him and I find it hard to believe he doesn't run hard to the right in the primary and/or the general to convince the base that he's their guy. Sort of a Loeffler dilemma.

[SCNCmod]

I still think in the end- the election is going to come down to:

1) How high is AA turnout (potentially very high... given the chance of the 1st AA Senator from Georgia & given the Republican focus on race in ads against Warnock- which will no doubt hit a nerve with AA voters)

2) How well are Dems able to utilize their Vote-by-mail & early-in-person-vote advantage... to bank a solid lead, going into the Jan 5th election day (which may be a busy time of year for many typical election day voters... and to a lesser extent, may be affected by a likely increase in covid breakout).

Item two is something I never even considered.  Yeah, we're pretty much doing another round of mail-in for Georgia, right?

Yes- there will be all 3 voting forms: mail-in, early-in-person, and obviously election-day.

I think today (Nov 18) is the 1st day that mail-in-ballots could be mailed out to voters.

The last day to register to vote is Dec 7 (for those turning 18... or anyone previously not registered).

And I think early-in-person voting starts in early December (cannot remember the exact dates).

[Florida Man for Crime]

To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

I think Ossoff and Warnock will lose but the environment could shift in Democrats' favour if Congress lets unemployment support expire before the runoff.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

The theory is that statewide in 2020, only higher-propensity voters will show up for a runoff, and that rural whites are low-propensity voters unlikely to show up in such high numbers without Trump on the ballot. With this happening, Democrats can afford to slightly underperform Biden with high propensity North Atlanta suburb voters (still winning them) and get 50.1%.

I'm not quite convinced, but I don't think it's entirely unrealistic. GA Dems certainly have the stronger GOTV infrastructure.

[wbrocks67]

To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

How is that relevant though, considering McBath came back and won? Ossoff only lost 2017 pretty much bc the race was so nationalized. Also there was way more antipathy towards Trump in 2018 than 2017

[SCNCmod]

To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

I think the election could certainly go either way (although I am convinced that both elections will fall to the same party).

But my theory of why this year will be different:

1) Dems dominated mail-in vote... and I think mail-in voters from the general, are most likely going to have the highest % of repeat voters in the runoff (due to mail-in voting being the lowest time commitment)

and more importantly...
2) Black runoff turnout is likely to be high this year... due to the chance of electing the 1st AA Senator from Georgia.  In past runoff elections, AA turnout has dropped a fair amount. (And I think AA voters will vote for both Warnock & Ossoff).

[Bootes Void]

Im not from Georgia(obv) if democrats want to win the senate races, they should tell the national politicians, hollywoods and all the celebs to stay the hell away. Localizing the race and not having the place drowned with money is the best way to go. Too much attention and money can backfire, though it may happen away

[Florida Man for Crime]

To anyone who is optimistic about Dem chances in these runoffs, particularly for Ossoff, can you explain why we should expect Ossoff in particular to win given that he lost the 2017 GA-06 special election/runoff? Why should we expect Dem turnout to be better now in a statewide runoff with a President Biden just having been elected than then in GA-06 with a President Trump (and a GOP trifecta at the time)?

One of the major things preventing me from being at all optimistic about these runoffs are the results in that special election at a time when the national environment should have been more favorable for Dems than now.

How is that relevant though, considering McBath came back and won? Ossoff only lost 2017 pretty much bc the race was so nationalized. Also there was way more antipathy towards Trump in 2018 than 2017

The relevance of the comparison that I am suggesting is basically that that was a special election/runoff held fairly shortly after Trump was elected. By the time of the runoff Trump had already done the Muslim ban, and stuff was coming out regarding Russia, FBI, etc. The initial special election was on April 18, 2017 and the runoff was June 20, 2017. For some context:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_investigations_into_Donald_Trump_and_Russia_(January%E2%80%93June_2017)

e.g.:

April 4: BuzzFeed News identifies "Male-1", described in 2015 US government court documents containing evidence of a Russian spy ring attempting to recruit American assets in New York, as Carter Page.[176][177]

June 8: Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence committee in both open and closed hearings.[282][33]:41[35]:774

June 16: Trump tweets: "I am being investigated for firing the FBI Director by the man who told me to fire the FBI Director! Witch Hunt."[294]


Basically, if we should expect that GA as a whole should now be significantly more favorable to Dems during run-off/special elections, then I would think we should have expected that to definitely be the case in 2017 when all the above stuff was in the process of coming out, and there was a GOP trifecta (so voting for a Dem House candidate would just help to 'check and balance' Trump), and the special election in question was in precisely the area (northern Atlanta) where you would expect more of a pro-Dem swing than in the state as a whole.

Sure, Dems won GA-06 in 2018 and in 2020, but neither of those were run-off elections or special elections.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The theory is that statewide in 2020, only higher-propensity voters will show up for a runoff, and that rural whites are low-propensity voters unlikely to show up in such high numbers without Trump on the ballot. With this happening, Democrats can afford to slightly underperform Biden with high propensity North Atlanta suburb voters (still winning them) and get 50.1%.

I'm not quite convinced, but I don't think it's entirely unrealistic. GA Dems certainly have the stronger GOTV infrastructure.

Yes, but if Dems benefited from more higher propensity voters showing up now, you would think that benefit would also have occurred in 2017 in GA-06, where there was a greater concentration of those higher propensity voters than statewide. Although I guess maybe you might be trying to say that the GOP base in GA-06 is also higher propensity; if so, that does sort of make sense. The GOP drop-off in run-offs should be more from WWC voters, and I guess there are proportionally fewer of those in GA-06 than statewide.

Yes, the GOTV infrastructure and vote by mail organization will probably help though.

[Frenchrepublican]

Insane

https://twitter.com/danbayens/status/1329177724657790984?s=20

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Press F to pay respects to georgia

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1329401478679818241?s=20

⬆️ According to the NYT Warnock has raised 40M dollars since Election Day.

Quote : “Everybody’s hopped up with the U.S. Senate on the line and in many ways the fate of the presidency and the courts,” said Mr. Reed, who predicted with more than a little hyperbole that $500 million could be spent on the election. “It’s crazytown.”’

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Speaking of McGrath, she's finally trying to summon resistance boomers to important Senate races:

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1329455030731223041

[brucejoel99]

Speaking of McGrath, she's finally trying to summon resistance boomers to important Senate races:

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1329455030731223041

Too little, too late.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

All this McGrath money coming in is a sign of doom for Warnock and Ossoff.

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah, they are going to sweep both.
Ugh I hate traitors, but unfortunately their existence as a party is legitimatized.

[NewYorkExpress]

Dozens of Georgia Veterans are calling for Warnock to drop out after decade old comments stating that "no one can serve God and the military surface.

Dozens of veterans from Georgia are calling on Democratic Senate candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock to drop out of the state’s run-off race in January after his nearly a decade-old comment saying “nobody can serve God and the military” resurfaced.


Fox News obtained a list of more than four dozen Georgia veterans who are calling on Warnock to suspend his campaign.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-raphael-warnock-america-nobody-can-serve-god-military

The relevant quote:

“America, nobody can serve God and the military,” Warnock said at the time. “You can’t serve God and money. You cannot serve God and mammon at the same time. America, choose ye this day who you will serve. Choose ye this day.”

“Politicians try to keep their power. Political parties lie in order to keep their power. And church folk, yeah, you too, maneuver…in order to keep your power And Jesus says, that’s not power. That’s paranoia.”

“Because when you’ve got real power, you’re not worrying about your place in the world. You know how to be exalted and you know how to be abased. You know how to sit high and you know how to sit low and you’re not worried about your place in the world because you’re connected with something that’s greater than you and you’re concerned about something that’s greater than yourself.”

“When you have real power, Jesus says that you’ll lay it down so that somebody else can have some power. Real power will lay itself down on behalf of the powerless,” Warnock added.